Astros would be stupid not to do that deal. Arias is a consensus MLB Top 10 prospect. Houston could call Arias up immediately and probably not even downgrade their SS production. Pena and Abreu for Arias and Marcus Phillips would be a good trade for both sides if Boston was going hard for 2026. But I’d love that trade for the Astros.
If the price for a player like Pena really is a prospect like Arias, the Astros can forget about making major additions to their roster; they don’t have any assets like that to even offer. I would be absolutely totally fine with them trading Pena then backfilling his bat with multiple marginal players like Moniak and Luis Robert and rolling the dice. The only prospects the Astros have had in the last 25 years that are on Arias’s level are Correa, Bregman, and Tucker. You don’t pass up the opportunity to add a cornerstone piece like that when all you have to give up is 1.5 seasons of an increasingly expensive 2nd tier player like Pena.
Sox are also horribly weak at C, and Langeliers has been floated as potentially available (not sure why but it's the A's). I imagine it would take Arias to get him. I like the Pena plan better.
If we trade Pena and he steals the BA portion from Yordan at the end, I will be pissed. He is a stud but I guess you pass up a consensus top 10 prospect.
I’d do it for Arias, it would kill the morale of the team and you’d likely be punting the rest of the season. But restarting the clock on an elite shortstop talent, and not having to pay Pena as he ages would be the smart move. I think incredibly highly of Pena, he’s one of the most complete players in the league right now. But if you don’t think you can sign him to an extension, it would be a shame to waste this opportunity.
Peña is going to test free agency. The Astros were close to a deal (IIRC it was 5 years, $125 million), and Peña switched agents (Boras) who immediately shut down any negotiations about an extension — so there’s little chance of an extension. If the Astros can net Arias, another prospect and an MLB position player for Peña, you do that deal.
Will be interesting to see the labor negotiations. Obviously a hard cap/floor is a guarantee for a lengthy work stoppage. When the owners put out the salary length limits, I saw it as a possible backup or compromise when/if the former doesn’t even get both sides to the table. Mid-market owners can afford the occasional “huge” contract, but not necessarily the 8+ year types that have built-in regression/overpaid years with the current structure. Crane’s past offers (High AAV, shorter years) has been more in line with what a year-limit system could open up in terms of other owners willing to now commit when its mostly all prime years (along with the favorable advantages teams may have for retaining players). Pena will be an “older” FA sorta like Springer and Bregman after Crane had bought out 2 of his years. He also plays a very physically demanding position and the nagging injuries are starting to become slightly more frequent (i.e. - his best prime years are likely last year, now, and next year). There are almost no examples of players meeting the current long-term salary offers that do eventually get signed in terms of WAR, and I think deep down the union knows that.
Trading Pena, no matter what you get back, wouldn't be the only sell-off they make. Paredes, relief pitchers, whoever else makes sense b/t now and next offseason. Trading Brown for a haul is a thing...just because I don't trust the health of most pitchers these days. This can also be done in the offseason or during the next season (Skubal). Trading Yordan is a bridge too far, personally. It would take a massive haul that I don't see happening. He's also said he want's to be in Houston for his entire career and I don't see him as a contract chaser. It's wonderful that dipsh!t labor strife is happening at the same time. Would've been perfect if Covid and CBA nuked the same season.
Agree somewhat, the difference is Parades might be a player you could agree to a contract with as he likely won’t get super star money. In 3 years when Yordan contract is up, the Astros only have Altuve left under contract currently with 25 million committed. I think Crane needs to do everything in his power and stretch as far as he ever has to make the Alvarez extension or contract work, he seems like the type that will except a reasonable deal, but it has to be more than the Astros have ever offered to anyone likely in salary and length
One of the biggest offensive "wants/needs" in this trade deadline is RH hitters with some power. That's Pena and Paredes if the Stros want to play. If you trade one you might as well trade both (you're not competing for anything anymore). It's a seller's market. .... I get it, but if Paredes is your 1B/3B in 2 years you're doing something wrong. He's a solid player, but...totally replaceable. Why not trade him now?
Looks like redsox traded Connely Early for infield help . I do feel like a top 10-20 prospect is the price you have to pay to get Pena. Dude is a straight stud. You would basically need 2 +Arias' to trade for Yordan which is why ... hopefully.... yordan isnt moved
Trading him now is giving up on the season when you are just two back and on a 5 game winning streak. I’m not saying it’s the wrong thing to do, but is it a Crane type thing to approve? I think we are buyers unless we go into another 5 game losing streak. I think we mortgage one of our better low level prospects and a bunch of guys like Arrighetti, Ullola, Pecko for a Gausman. I have no idea of what bat they can get. SP will be their focus.
Doesn't Gausman kinda suck in the mediocre range? Never understood the fascination with him, he does pitch many innings though
Yeah, my bad. Hopefully someone better. Point is I think Crane will go all in on a rental pitcher, especially with the looming lockout.
Isaac Paredes for Jake Bauers Joey Ortiz Why the Brewers do it: Bauers is having a great year, but he is a rental and the Brewers' SOP is flipping rentals for controllable starters. Furthermore, they have Vaughn and Sanchez who have a 100 or better wRC+ vs both RH and LH pitching who can cover him at 1B. They have Chourio and Mitchell starting in the OF everyday and Yelich at DH. This leaves Lara and Lockridge for the other OF position. They are specifically looking for a run producing upgrade at 3b. Paredes is a perfect fit. Joey Ortiz has been relegated to a bench spot by Cooper Pratt at SS (and Paredes at 3B). David Hamilton can be the bench infielder. Why the Astros do it: Bauers is an elite LH bat that can hit in the middle of the lineup while playing LF, RF, and/or 1B. Ortiz has a 115 wRC+ since June 1st and is a very good defender at 3B and SS. He becomes the starting 3B the rest of the season and is an offensive upgrade at the bottom of the order (even if it is a low bar). Furthermore, he becomes the starting SS next season until/unless a young better option is acquired or developed. This allows the team to trade Pena in the offseason in a Tucker-like deal.
Agree I would do it But it’s highly unlikely Arias would immediately be as good as Pena, in fact there is a higher chance that he would struggle badly than there is that he would be a high end mlb player right away It’s easy to look at prospects minor league numbers and get wowed, but we have no idea who will and will not make it. Even with high end prospects the failure rate is high
Agree But the extension that would likely be needed before a deal like that is made would be one for Dana Brown, cause with his job likely on the line this year it’s highly unlikely he would sell with us 2 games back
You are right; instead of “probably” I should have said “possibly”. But when you factor in the short timeline and Peña’s injury history, it is certainly possible that Arias would outproduce Pena over August-September of this year. The failure rate of prospects of Arias’ caliber is not really that high.
