Lot of teams in AL already have been fighting for WC a while and putting streaks on. Red Sox without party bros Anthony & Mayer (put on pedestal bit too quickly and this season was to be about them leading this team) have really fought hard in every game. Annoying fkr that Contreras but did like the fire in 2nd game of DH v Rays where after homer and rounding bases he stayed front of the crowd trying to get them riled up. Just showing these games matter. Lineup for them is still bad overall but showing fight. Minnesota, Baltimore, Cleveland all on 3-5 win streaks. Boston on 11, run diff. +39. We have -48. We are planning and dreaming who could we trade for and then start the last 50 game surge. If Mariners boot Wilson not far from now as they should (100 reasons, not just results, he's doing Espada on roids but with better team) they win the division. If Texas goes out and gets buying right (if given payroll, now 176m) they are in good position to win this. If neither happens, this might stay as bumfight division. I have been saying that something like 6 years in a row lowest win total has been 86 in AL to be in playoffs. I did think it will take that this year too because lot of teams will be mailing it in after deadline. But now it seems 84 might be enough. For Mariners rotation to just settle back to closer to career norms might see them clinch AL West with some distance. Astros for 84 wins. 99 games, 5 under 47-52 63 games, need to go 11 over 37-26
37-26 is highly doable with the remaining schedule. I'm skeptical they can do it with this roster, though. This is the problem with mediocrity. Like last year, they're 2-3 players away from being decent, but so are other teams in the AL. Adding Carlos was a nice jolt of energy, and his injury is big, but Dana swung and missed last season with the Sánchez trade. Who can they realistically add that will be a positive difference maker?
Astros have 10 games left before going into that last series before the deadline. They have to have their minds made up on their deadline approach before then. 8-2 or better: buy heavy (ToR SP, elite OF bat, RH setup man) 7-3: buy lite (MoR SP, good OF bat) 5-5/6-4: stand pat 4-6: sell lite (rental RP, underwater contracts) 3-7 or worse: sell heavy (Brown, Lambert, Pena, Paredes, rental RP, underwater contracts) I think they’re cooked.
I thought this before he got called up, but I didnt mention it because I really didn't think the would call him up this season, but I think Spence has a better chance of being a viable everyday CF than Matthews does. Even when Matthews returns I hope they keep him as an everyday player. I'm not some huge believer in Spence, I just have zero faith in Matthews ever hitting MLB pitching even if his ceiling feels significantly higher. There will still be plenty of PA for Matthews so it isn't as if you have to give up on him entirely.
Brice Matthews current OPS is .582 which is dismal. Brice needs to go back to AAA and figure it out (or not).
If I remember correctly, Matthews had a questionable bat and a late 2nd round ranking, yet Brown went way out on a limb and took him in the first round in 2023. Matthews may simply not be ready, but that slash line is so atrocious he already feels like a bust. Not looking good for scout guru Brown's first ever first-round pick for the Astros.
So now that's two pitchers Dana acquired in the off-season that have been cut for sucking....that's in addition to Burrows being ass and Imai being a wuss.
Just finished first series after the All Star break and the team already play like they're tired and over it
I think the Astros have to recognize some hard facts about their players: Jose Altuve is a declining player whose best role is as a bottom of the order hitter who gets a lot of rest and DH time. Cam Smith is a defense-first player who might never reach his offensive ceiling; he too is best used at the bottom of the order. Christian Walker is an extremely inconsistent hitter who fits best in the bottom half of the lineup. Yainer Diaz is questionable as a starting catcher and is probably best used as a high-contact upside bat in a backup bench role. So between Altuve, Smith, Walker, and Diaz, the 6-9 spots in Houston’s everyday lineup are spoken for and all 5 other positions have to be filled by elite hitters if the Astros are going to contend. Brice Matthews, Joey Loperfido, Zach Cole, Lucas Spence, and Zach Dezenzo are all 3rd/4th tier prospects who are far more likely to be 4th OF or bench bats than they are to be everyday caliber players. The lefthanded hitters from that group could possibly fit in the strong side of a platoon, but none of them are ever likely to fit in the top half of a contending batting order. If they intend to compete in the short term they don’t have the luxury of sorting through them all to figure out which ones might stick or exceed expectations. The pitching magic dust has worn off and Spencer Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, Ethan Pecko and everyone outside of Hunter Brown and maybe Peter Lambert should be considered back of the rotation options, even if many of those guys have upside to be more than that. Similarly to the outfield, if the Astros intend to compete in the short term, they don’t have the luxury of rooting through all of those guys to determine which ones will make the best #4/5/6 starters or if any of them have what it takes to be reliable #2/3 SP. Teng, Blubaugh, Sousa, Ullola, and Santa all have leverage upside but are unproven. They all need big league innings to see what role they can handle. Bryan King is best used as a 7th inning or low leverage option. No help is on the way from the farm this season. The AAA and AA rosters are not entirely devoid of talent, but there’s not a single prospect on either one of those rosters that currently projects as an above average everyday hitter or ToR SP. Once you realize what Houston actually has (1 superstar hitter, 2 good hitters, 1 elite SP, an elite closer, 1 MoR SP, and a WHOLE LOT of questions), it just doesn’t make sense for them to invest any more into this years team.
@Snake Diggit I think the hardest question the astros might have to ask is if they can actually develop and coach talent . As you've said , there is "talent" on the roster , but much of it is unproven and not producing. Or we are asking too much . My main thrust of this will be cam smith . I like cam . He's great on defense . But his offense has stalled. And it's stalled despite having high peripherals for a lot of what might be considered good indicators . Like bat speed and chase percent. Why haven't they turned into actual results ? What's missing ? Is it simply a matter of time ? Will things not click ? Is he being coached the right way ? Ultimately it's hard to know if your coaching is good or bad right ? Players perform and it's hard to tell if they hold the blame or if they were not coached to max potential. What used to be a metric for coaching was looking at how players perform for your team vs previous stops ... Or how players play once they move on from your team . Granted , individual growth can happen over time , so it's very hard to sort out coaching impact . That being said ... Is there a player who has come here in the last 3-4 years and actually improved offensively ? I know we USED to think we had that kind of sauce for pitching . We need to urgently turn our attention to that matter. I like Brice and cam , but you can argue they both got called up early ... And I havent seen tons of growth from either guy. And if you(speaking in general )don't trust Dana that's fine , but the fastest way to set ourselves up for 27+ is to trade pena and Brown . Yordan is just too valuable
Trading season is upon us. The Astros need to trade some of their MLB talent. This team can not just "run it back" next year and expect a different outcome. Trades should be made to compete for the 2028 season. Either sign Pena to a long term deal or trade him. Pena might be the Astros highest value, tradeable bat. Walker might be hard to move with his contract. The Astros do not want to sweeten that deal with prospects. Isaac Paredes is under contract for 2028. Vasquez and Diaz can go, but the return should be light. The OF is not hitting, outside of LaMonte Wade Jr. I can not see playoff teams wanting any of these OFs. The return should be light, at best. Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Josh Hader are under contract for 2028. The rest of the pitchers are tradeable. Peter Lambert might get a big return since he is pitching well. I suspect a light return for the rest.
I know he was a college guy, but the combination of age, number of MLB PAs (nearly at half a full season now for his career), and performance, don't look good at all. Not out of the realm of possibility that he turns it around, but the odds of him being an average or better player get smaller by the day.
