Assuming the Rockets make no other changes, I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts about anticipated rotations and minutes. Below are my best guesses regarding the primary 9-man rotation minutes (assuming health). Amen: 34 Bari: 31 Durant: 31 Sengun: 33 FVV: 25 -- Smart: 23 Sheppard: 28 Eason: 20 Adams or Capela: 15 — PG: FVV (25) / Smart (23) SG: Amen (20) / Sheppard (28) SF: Durant (31) / Amen (14) / Eason (3) PF: Bari (31) / Eason (17) C: Sengun (33) / Adams or Capela (15)
It's a little optimistic to think Ime "Thibs 2.0" Udoka will play Amen or KD that few minutes I think. I hope their minutes loads will go down, but I'm still expecting 35+ for Amen and 33+ for KD. I think there will be injuries almost the whole season in this backcourt, and that will be Thornton's ticket to 10 to 15 minutes per game if he translates at all (which right now I'm thinking he will). The other wild card is I think it's unlikely KD will be as healthy as he was last season, even with reduced minutes. That will result in Tari/Bari getting more run than you're projecting here. Otherwise, I think you're on the right track.
5 starters = 48 minutes each. There's no such thing as riding the hot hand, developing, subbing the bad player with Ime.
One other interesting thing to think about... with this roster, barring further moves, is there a possibility of Amen and/or Jabari getting minutes as small ball centers when Sengun is off the court? With 3-4 other guys in the backcourt (although again I expect injuries to be a thing) there may be a minutes crunch in the frontcourt.
Expecting something like FVV/Amen/JSJ/Durant/Sengun SL Smart/Adams around 6 minute mark in 1st for JSJ/Sengun Reed/Eason/JSJ in for Amen/FVV/Durant a couple minutes later. Amen/Sengun/Durant in for JSJ/Adams/Smart at start of 2nd/4th. 9 minutes left in a half, the guys that played the best play most of the minutes unless there is a bad matchup for Reed. Thinking early part of the season, the Rockets bench will absolutely be destroying other teams. Injuries may slow it down later in the season. I expect Udoka will find a way to get FVV/Smart/Amen/Durant on the court together with either Sengun or Adams even if he doesn't follow this pattern.
A few days ago I said 46 wins (+/- 2 wins) for Rockets [26/27]. This video has them at 47.5 wins I won't venture on minutes
Pre-season minutes projections assuming full health are normally a waste of time. Someone is always on IR. Their individual minutes will be higher than what fits into 1 game, Tari should be 30 mpg end of season, even if you can’t see where the minutes are, he’s the fill in starter for most of the lineup.
Oh we will win more regular season games than that, in all likelihood And still get bounced in the first round of the playoffs
Amen, Fred, KD - 35+ And it's irrelevant about anybody else, because that alone means we're going to be absolute TRASH in the playoffs.
It’s hard to see Dickerson playing less than 35 minutes a night. It’s also hard to see him playing 70+ games at this rate. I know Stone talked about decreasing minutes but I don’t see any of the roster changes impacting that. Barring a leap from Amen, who still doesn’t have enough shooting around him to make that leap, I just don’t see it.
FVV (28) / Sheppard (20) Thompson (18) / Smart (25) / Sheppard (5) Durant (30) / Thompson (14) / Eason (4) Smith (27) / Eason (21) Sengun (32) / Adams-Clint (13) / Smith (3) In a sane world something like that. 32 - Amen, Sengun 30 - KD, Smith 28 - FVV 25 - Tari, Reed, Smart 13 - Adams-Clint We really, really could have used a stretch backup center to pair with Amen in the 2nd unit.
Not 30mpg, but I could honestly see him getting major run off the bench if FVV and Smart both struggle with injuries at the same time, and/or FVV just doesn't look like an NBA rotation player anymore, which are unfortunately very plausible scenarios.
It’s not like Fred has ever relied on athleticism. I suspect he will be pretty much what he was the last season he played for us. Basically, a walk-it up guy, that can’t break down the defense and shoots ok from 3 and terrible at the rim (on the few occasions he gets there). He won’t get as much run in the PnR with Alpi now that Durant is here. FVV will probably play less minutes than before as long as Smart is healthy. Until injuries hit, our bench should be much better than last year so we will rack up some wins early that will keep us around the 50 win mark by the time it all plays out. Neither FVV or Smart help with spacing, so I don’t really see much of a runway for Amen and Reed to make big strides. This is just going to be a slog it out, wasted year for our young core and the usual characters will come out and blame it on Amen, Sengun, Reed and Jabari being poor draft picks. I’m hoping against all logic that somebody blows us away with an offer for KD, that will save Stone face, so he can pull the trigger. Doomerz rule!
Jabari at the 5, Amen at the 4, Bogs at the 3 with the pocket Rockets (Reed;Thornton) in the backcourt might by an interesting small ball lineup 4 shooters around Amen, giving him a ton of space
they would need to score in bunches. That would be a historically bad defensive group. Bogs is also done, so maybe Tari’s shooting comes back and maybe he could sub for Bogs and at least the defense would have a little better chance to cause some turnovers. I will say it would be a fun experiment.
Nice to see you on the board Apache. I think 40 wins is the max that the Rockets can achieve this season.
Alright, my first inclination was what @OremLK wrote, and that still maybe what Ime defaults to, but we have deepened our rotation and perhaps that was done specifically to keep him from running KD and Amen into the ground. So I'll offer the following as a suggested and hopefull rotation that will absolutely have to be adjusted for any injuries. KD is our true finisher and likely leading scorer again, thus will probably play the most minutes, along with Alpi and Amen. I'm optimistic that FVV and Reed will share the PG duty, especially with Fred coming off a blown up knee, but he's Ime's safety net and even with Smart available that may not happen. Keeping guys averages in these ranges should keep them fresh and contribute to the 48 mins of defensive intensity that IU loves. A 10-man rotation like this would be pretty good and should reduce wear and tear on our older and younger guys. Kevin Durant: 33 – 34 Amen Thompson: 33 – 34 Alperen Şengün: 33 – 34 Jabari Smith Jr.: 28 – 30 Fred VanVleet: 25 – 27 Reed Sheppard: 23 – 24 Tari Eason: 22 – 23 Marcus Smart: 18 – 22 Bogdan Bogdanović: 12 – 14 Steven Adams: 12 – 14
