Hard to believe there's only 7 weeks left in the A/A+/AA seasons. I feel like Houston's farm is on a steep upswing and there are a lot of prospects that I think still have a chance to really raise their projections with how they perform over July and August: 3B Xavier Neyens was just promoted to High A. He should get a 100+ pa sample size there and if he rakes he will likely be a MLB Top 75 prospect going into next season. SP Ethan Pecko has had 2 rough starts in July but is on the brink of a callup. His performance over the next month+ (if he's not traded) will determine his projected role next spring. P Nick Potter has had a good year and a dominant finish will really put him on the map next year. He's one of the highest ceiling arms in the system and once he reaches AA next year could be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball if everything breaks right. P Bryce Mayer has a dominant k rate in AA and if he shows some improvement in his walk rate he will be a fringe Top 100 guy going into next season; he is a major trade candidate. IF Pascanel Ferreras is hitting .366 over 112 AB in AAA so far and is making a case for Rule 5 protection. He won't be a top prospect but he could raise his projection enough to profile as a meaningul bench piece. CF Anthony Huezo also was just promoted to High A. He has a chance to finish with a 20/40 season and be on the precipice of AA going into his age 21 season. Right now he is A 3rd tier prospect who fits in the 15-30 range on Houston's list but if he rakes with a k % < 30% with continued power, he will really start to project as a potential impact major leaguer. P Jackson Nezuh is coming off a dominant 11k start in AA and is positioning himself to need Rule 5 protection. He's an underrated prospect. OF Lucas Spence has gotten some hype as the potential solution to the LH OF problem in Houston. He probably isn't that, but a good finish to the season could have him projecting as a potential future everyday MLB OF. 1B/OF Drew Brutcher is on the IL and I'm not sure how serious his injury is, but he was absolutely raking in AA before he got hurt and was putting himself in position for an early callup next year if not competing for a bench bat job next spring. C/1B Will Bush has been hot over the last 2 months and is back in position to project as a fringe regular or valuable bench piece. He doesn't need Rule 5 protection yet but at this rate he will be in position for a callup next season. C/1B Jason Schiavone's homers have disappeared in July but his k rate is lower than expected and he might be working. A string of bombs over the next 7 weeks would have him also projecting as a meaningful big leaguer. RP Alex Santos II is performing very well in AA and with another ~20 dominant innings, he could also need Rule 5 protection; the stuff is there. P Juan Fraide has been dominant recently in Fayetteville, so each start adds to the momentum. P Nolan DeVos was just promoted to AA and has had his first healthy pro season since 2023. He could be a sleeper and with a handful of good starts in AA he will be a Rule 5 consideration or at least a pitcher in position for a callup late next year. P Josh Hendrickson has been effective as a AAA SP so he's worth keeping tabs on. IF Waner Luciano has been on a tear since he got back to Fayetteville and if he sustains it will likely start in Asheville next season as a major breakout candidate. 2B/OF Yamal Encarnacion has quietly had a very good season and is having his best month so far, hitting 2 HR so far in July. He has a chance to inch himself into a lot of org Top 30 lists. He has 70 grade speed, high defensive value, and a good contact tool, so if he starts showing some consistent power he will be a very good prospect; he's still just 22. 1B/OF Nehomar Ochoa jr. is another 20 year old in High A, and he was absolutely raking in July before getting hurt (1292 ops); assuming he comes back in a couple weeks, he has a chance also enter next year on the precipice of AA. P Brandon McPherson has been mentioned as a potential callup; he throws 100 and is in AAA already. RP Michael Knorr is finally healthy and might have a shot at Rule 5 protection if he looks good over the remainder of the season. OF Chase Call has a chance to make noise in AA. I am skeptical of him as a prospect but anyone in AA with his power has a shot to get hype. OF Ethan Frey has had a very up and down season that hasn't met expectations, but he appears healthy and has been raking on his FCL rehab. His stock is way down from where it was in April but he should get these last ~6 weeks to rebound and could still start next season in AA with a chance to have his stock explode. C Walker Janek should return from rehab next week and will have ~100 pa to rebound his fallen stock. It's possible his struggles were injury related. P Ryan Forcucci has had a disaster year but he's active again and has a chance to throw ~40 good innings to end the year, which would put him in position to break out next year. Guys that probably won't have much of a chance to improve their stock over the rest of this season but that I am really really excited about for 2027: P Jagger Beck, P Javier Perez, P Brett Gillis, P Cole Hertzler (all likely going to run into an innings limit soon) IF Albert Fermin, IF Randy Arias, IF Sami Manzueta, IF Sebastian mendez, IF Franchely Silverio, OF Yensi De La Cruz, OF Anthony Millan, OF Jack Valbrune, P Omar Damian (none of these guys will move the needle much more than they already have based on DSL stats, but whichever of them come stateside next spring will be watched closely, and any of them that skip the FCL will be on the Kevin Alvarez track to prospect hype) C Jase Mitchell, C/1B Luis De Leon, OF Luis Rives, OF Ethan Wagner, C August Cuneo, OF Edwin Diaz, C Alexi Quiroz, P Adrian Ardines (FCL guys I'm bullish on but won't get any or enough time in A ball this season to raise their stock much) P Jack Radel, P Wes Mendes, P Gavin Eddy, IF Keon Johnson, IF Beau Peterson, OF Logan Hughes, IF/OF James Tronstein (draftees can't affect their stock much in A/FCL ball in their draft year but these are guys I think have a chance to really be on the map next year) OF Kevin Alvarez has done what he's going to do this year and is a pretty firm Top 100 guy. If he starts next season in Asheville he will have a chance to raise his projection even higher. This time next year it would not shock me if we see Houston with up to 7 Top 100 prospects: Neyens, Alvarez, Hughes, Fermin, 1 guy acquired via trade for Paredes or Pena, one HS draftee from this year's draft, and 1 popup pitcher. Also, if the 2027 draft order were decided today, the Astros would have the #11 pick (assuming they didn't win the draft lottery).
Ethan Frey has been activated from the Asheville IL. Also glad to see that Nolan DeVos is on his way to Corpus; he's got some work to do to get back in the picture, but he has proven to be an effective pitcher when fully healthy.
Jadyn Fielder doesn't have the power his dad and grandpa had, as he looks to be much more of a line-drive hitter. He also fits this mold that I'm describing above. Maybe if he swings a bit more, he'll start to find some in-game power? He's got some long odds, but I don't think he's merely a throw-in.
Hmm. Normally the teams don’t tweet about promotions if they know they’re gonna be temporary as far as I remember, but there’s nothing about Gomez’s performance over the last year+ that warrants a move up to AA.
Undrafted to the majors. Good work done by the scout who found Lucas Spence and the dev team for getting him on a track to Houston. So yes, the first player from the 2024 draft class to make it to the Astros actually didn’t get drafted.
Wow. I do not expect him to be very good but hope like hell he proves me wrong. Either way good for him.
DSL Orange team put up 24 on the Padres' Brown team today. Anthony Millan drove in five, three of which came on his second home run of the year. Everyone who got a plate appearance recorded an RBI. Albert Fermin did not have a hit, but he walked four times (one with the bases loaded) and drove in the first run of the day with a sac fly.
P Jackson Nezuh was promoted to AAA today. He is an underrated prospect in my opinion. Had 29% k 9% bb in AA. He might not make it in the majors as a starter but he could be a really valuable leverage or multi-inning RP. His FB is up to 96 as a starter and he has a really good changeup. If he were to find another tick or 2 in the bullpen and be a 2 pitch pitcher with a 97 mph FB and 65 grade changeup, that's a good pitcher. But he probably deserves one more year to try and find a 3rd pitch to see if he can stay in a rotation. He's rule 5 eligible this fall (if there is a Rule 5 draft) and is almost a lock to be added to the 40 man.
Anthony Huezo homered in his Asheville debut. He now has 15 home runs on the season. Xavier Neyens doubled in his first plate appearance. Jack Moss also went deep for the Tourists, giving him 5 on the year.
He's a prospect who is usually in most top 20 rankings, so he is a guy. Not somebody that projects as a meaningful player, but a prospect nonetheless. Basically a Myles Straw type, a little more power and less speed. Hopefully that little extra power allows his OBP skills play better than Straws did. If MLB pitchers have zero fear of perpetually attacking the zone it's hard to walk.
I think he’s probably roughly equivalent to Straw in terms of value but they’re very vey different players. Spence does have high defensive value, he makes good reads, has a good glove, and has a really good arm. His speed is above average but not great; he’s got enough to play CF and steal 10-15 bases a year but speed is not what’s going to keep him in the league. His power is below average, he hit 17 HR in 205 minor league games. I do suspect he will hit for more power if he sticks in the majors and could hit 15-20 HR/yr. His swing and miss is average and he is very patient, perhaps overly so. I think his determining factor in the majors is that he’s going to see a lot more strikes than he did in the minors. If he keeps taking as high % of called strikes as he did in the minors I think he will end up with an untenable k rate and be a 4th/AAAA OF. If he is appropriately aggressive and is able to connect on breaking balls enough to force pitchers to consistently give him an eventual fastball, he could be a good hitter; a ceiling of being a well above average (wRC+ ~115) hitter with above average CF defense makes him a potentially very valuable player. But I fully expect him to end up a lot closer to his floor than his ceiling.
