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The "franchise player" debate has been settled. It's Amen.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by OremLK, May 4, 2025.

  1. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    These keyboard GM’s would bring the team to ruination in one week of acquisitions lol
     
  2. bustamove

    bustamove Member

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    after the all star break 27 games 5 to 24 ft 62 of 140 for 45%

    I see an upwards trend
     
  3. 9baller

    9baller Member

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    He will need a jumper to do so, and I doubt that happens. I think Reed will end up being the best of our young core, but still not a franchise player.
     
  4. bustamove

    bustamove Member

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    I believe its very likely he'll shoot in the high 40s% from 5 to 24 feet by the end of next year

    in all the 27 games after the all-star break

    Amen had the 7th most made 5-9 ft (jumpers and floaters)
    Slightly less than Brunson more than Luka, Kawhi, and KD

    And of the 156 players who attempted at least 60 5-9 ft shots, he is 6th in FG% (61%)
    Only traling the likes of KD and ANT
    But ahead the likes of Kawhi, Luka, Mitchell, Towns, Jokic, Brunson, Shai

    https://www.nba.com/stats/players/s...lar Season&TeamID=0&dir=D&sort=5-9 ft. FG PCT
     
  5. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    What are KD, Derozan and Kawhi's numbers from that 5-24 range? I'd need to do the math and firing off a quick post between working, but i'm pretty sure 45% from that range is in the "you're not good enough to shoot this shot and it be considered efficient" range. So that's not a star player, because those shots won't win us **** at that efficiency. See: Kevin "One of the Great 2 pt shooters" Durant and how him throwing up long 2's lost the numbers game very commonly last season. We need to shoot 3's or those long 2's need to be world-beating efficiency or we're still playing dated old man ball...
     
  6. bustamove

    bustamove Member

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    Thats why I said high 40s like which is around 48-50%

    Brunson, Luka, Ant, Derozan shot 5-24 range for 48-49%

    Stop moving the goal post

    Your defended JG franchise player he was 42% from that range this year

    Amen is 47% this year he needs to be around 50% from that range at the very least next year

    If gets it to 52% he'll be at SGA level
     
  7. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Where does this come from.
     
  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Pretty sure NBA.com using post ASB splits.

    41/67 5 to 9 ft
    9/33 10 to 14
    4/13 15 to 19
    8/27 20 to 24

    Drastic drop from 10 to 19 feet suggests Amen's mid range skills are eroding if one believes in tiny splits.
     
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  9. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    We know his numbers in at the rim and short distance are good.

    The problem is everything beyond that and your link shows this:

    5-9ft 61.2%

    10-14ft 27.3%
    15-19ft 30.8%
    20-24ft 29.6%
    25-29ft 12.5%

    No matter how great the numbers are in at the rim / in the paint, what affects the team most is how defenses play him otherwise. Those numbers are exactly why teams were able to double team KD & Sengun so often and so easily when Amen is off the ball.
    They invite him to shoot while clamping down KD / Sengun because they have absolutely NO respect for him in those area's.
    They see a shot by Amen from any of those locations as a won possession.

    You are the opposing coach - who would you like to force to take a shot - KD, Sengun or Amen? Obviously, Amen from anywhere outside the paint.

    Those mid range shots are already the least efficient (we've been thru all the analytics as Rockets fans) and the only people you really want taking them are ultra efficient shooters like KD, aside from that corner 3's and layups are the desired shots.
    If you are taking shots that have a 30% success rate, you are playing into the defenses hand.

    If the defense can force a 30%=< shooter into taking a shot over three better shooters, the defense has won that possession regardless of the actual outcome.

    Teams want Amen to get his while clamping down everywhere else.
     
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  10. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Yeah, I found it a couple posts later - the data really doesn't support any improvement by Amen in those ranges.
     
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  11. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

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    Yep, his shooting abilities is definitely going to a road over the next few years. That is a certainty.
     
  12. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Brunson, Luka, and Ant, don't shoot that much from that range. (Brunson a bit more but still less than half of his shots diet.)

    The real high volume elite midrange shooters like Durant and SGA shoot at around 55%.

    48% from 2pt range is like 32% 3pt efficiency. And I don't want my franchise player shoot like DeRozan. That said, if Amen can have a respectable midrange, it will open up his driving lane which should be his bread and butter scoring. I just don't think anything below 50% is respectable.
     
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  13. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Yeah I do think Amen will have to clear 50% on his middies for them to be a high-usage weapon.

    One thing that's funny though is how much people tend to overestimate past shooting guards' midrange games. People have told me so many times "yeah but D-Wade had a great midrange jump shot" and when you look at his actual splits he was like sub-40% on those shots.

    For players of Amen's archetype, it's all about the paint scoring. Even if he becomes a passable jump shooter (which he very well may) it's still going to be all about getting to the rim. And that's fine, especially if he's more of a forward than a guard long term.
     
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  14. bustamove

    bustamove Member

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    I said 48% from 5 to 24 ft range

    combine that with 70% below 5 ft range

    that will be at least 55% from 2pt range

    in the ragular season, 42 players attempted at least 10 2 FGAs per game

    Amen is 14th (57.3) in 2FG% just behind Luka, Donavan
    Tied with KD
    Better than Kawhi, Ant, jalen Brown, Jalen Brunson

    PLAYER 2FG% Rank
    Jalen Duren 65.2 1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo 64.7 2
    Nikola Jokić 63.5 3
    Evan Mobley 62.6 4
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 60.2 5
    Zion Williamson 60.2 6
    Ivica Zubac 59.8 7
    Domantas Sabonis 59.3 8
    Victor Wembanyama 59 9
    LeBron James 58.6 10
    Donovan Mitchell 57.7 11
    Luka Dončić 57.6 12
    Kevin Durant 57.3 13
    Amen Thompson 57.3 14
    Kawhi Leonard 56.9 15
    Lauri Markkanen 55.9 16
    Scottie Barnes 55.7 17
    Anthony Edwards 55.4 18
    Alperen Sengun 54.8 19
    Julius Randle 54.8 20
    Deni Avdija 54.7 21
    Jalen Johnson 54.1 22
    Joel Embiid 53.5 23
    Anthony Davis 53.5 24
    Franz Wagner 53.2 25
    Pascal Siakam 52.7 26
    DeMar DeRozan 52.7 27
    Tyrese Maxey 52.5 28
    Jaylen Brown 52.3 29
    Alex Sarr 52.3 30
    Jalen Williams 52.3 31
    Jalen Brunson 52.2 32
    Cade Cunningham 51.9 33
    Jamal Murray 51.6 34
    Brandon Ingram 51.5 35
    Shaedon Sharpe 51.4 36
    Cooper Flagg 51.4 37
    Devin Booker 51.2 38
    Bam Adebayo 51 39
    Paolo Banchero 50.7 40
    Dillon Brooks 49.1 41
    Ja Morant 47.3 42

    https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-general?CF=FG2A*GE*10&SeasonType=Regular Season&dir=D&sort=FG2_PCT

    After the all star break 27 games Amen jumps from 14th (57.3) to 5th (62.3)

    https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-general?SeasonType=Regular+Season&DateFrom=02/15/2026
     
    #874 bustamove, Jul 17, 2026 at 2:22 AM
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2026 at 2:41 AM
  15. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    That's way too high a bar. Above 50% is elite. Your baseline can't be elite. If it's supposed to be a primary action for you (we run a play where you take a middie) then yes you have to be up there. However, if it's just as a counter once or twice a game, mid 40's is perfectly fine.

    The problem is that improving 10% at midrange tends to take years and years. It's not a "this summer" kind of thing. It's why I've said all along, it's a waste of time developing that. Whatever time he spends training middies is better invested in additional reps on his 3pt shot. Right now the difference in efficiency between his mid range and 3pter is practically nothing. So why on earth would you not take the one that creates space for you and your teammates? Why not invest in the one that will raise your market value most? Why not invest in the one that puts the defender in a bigger conundrum (way more distance to cover between a 3 and a drive)?

    He should have been getting up reps last season. The front office already said it wasn't their season. It was the perfect time to let it fly (for Sengun too). Instead these monkeys in management decided to make him take middies and chase little guys around (effectively taking him out of his help defense and rebounding strengths).

    Having said that, it's also an anomaly for an 80% shooter to not be or become a passable shooter. Maybe we get lucky he pushes himself to 32-33% next season. I hate rooting for luck though.
     
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  16. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    You are comparing orange to apple. And you are moving the goal post. We were talking about his midrange 2pt shooting at high 40s. I'm saying high 40s is not good enough as a franchise player. If you combine his at rim percentage, of course his 2pt% is much higher. But not all at rim shots are the same. If you are a ball handler, most of the close range shots should be self-created. If you took away Amen's put back shots and assisted at rim shots, he wouldn't be that high.

    Those put back and assisted shots are valuable. Amen is a very valuable player. But if he can't shoot at high volume high efficiency from self-created shots, he can only be a complementary player, not a guy you build the team around.
     
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  17. bustamove

    bustamove Member

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    okay what range do you consider midrange 2 pt shooting?

    anything over 5ft from the rim and below the 3pt line right?
     
  18. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Midrange is really closer to 10 feet from the rim... you know, closer to the middle between 1 and 23.

    5 feet is very short range.
     
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  19. bustamove

    bustamove Member

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    reg season 8 to 16 feet

    these 6 players shot between 36% and 40%

    Paolo Banchero
    Amen Thompson
    LaMelo Ball
    Bam Adebayo
    Victor Wembanyama
    VJ Edgecombe

    reg season 16 to 24 feet

    Amen Thompson shot 33.3
    tied with Brandon Miller
    and Cooper Flagg

    these 5 players shot worse than Amen

    Alperen Sengun
    Pascal Siakam
    Tobias Harris
    Payton Pritchard
    Bam Adebayo

    in the playoffs 16 to 24 feet top 50 in attempts Amen is 10th in FG%


    PLAYER FGM FGA FG%
    Isaiah Hartenstein 22 35 62.86%
    Devin Booker 14 25 56.00%
    Dillon Brooks 16 29 55.17%
    CJ McCollum 20 37 54.05%
    Donovan Mitchell 48 90 53.33%
    Austin Reaves 10 19 52.63%
    Marcus Smart 10 19 52.63%
    Evan Mobley 10 19 52.63%
    Mikal Bridges 31 59 52.54%
    Amen Thompson 13 25 52.00%
    Jared McCain 14 27 51.85%
    James Harden 28 55 50.91%
    Joel Embiid 30 60 50.00%
    Daniss Jenkins 13 26 50.00%
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 72 146 49.32%
    OG Anunoby 12 25 48.00%
    Naz Reid 7 15 46.67%
    Rui Hachimura 20 43 46.51%
    Scottie Barnes 24 52 46.15%
    Jaden McDaniels 27 59 45.76%
    Devin Vassell 31 68 45.59%
    Jaylen Brown 24 53 45.28%
    Dylan Harper 16 36 44.44%
    Luke Kennard 11 25 44.00%
    Paolo Banchero 17 39 43.59%
    Alperen Sengun 10 23 43.48%
    De'Aaron Fox 36 83 43.37%
    Jalen Brunson 58 137 42.34%
    Cade Cunningham 40 99 40.40%
    Anthony Edwards 24 60 40.00%
    Tyrese Maxey 24 61 39.34%
    VJ Edgecombe 11 28 39.29%
    Stephon Castle 23 59 38.98%
    LeBron James 19 49 38.78%
    Jamal Murray 17 45 37.78%
    Chet Holmgren 12 32 37.50%
    Brandon Ingram 13 35 37.14%
    Ajay Mitchell 12 33 36.36%
    Jalen Green 8 22 36.36%
    Deni Avdija 6 17 35.29%
    Tobias Harris 23 69 33.33%
    RJ Barrett 10 30 33.33%
    Nikola Jokić 9 27 33.33%
    Ayo Dosunmu 5 15 33.33%
    Victor Wembanyama 21 64 32.81%
    Paul George 14 48 29.17%
    Julius Randle 13 47 27.66%
    Jalen Johnson 5 19 26.32%
    Jarrett Allen 3 16 18.75%
    Jabari Smith Jr. 3 19 15.79%
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Calling everything from 5 to 24 feet “midrange” is misleading. That includes hooks, floaters, and short paint shots. By that definition, Zach Edey, Maxime Raynaud, Ivica Zubac, and Jarrett Allen all grade as better “midrange shooters” than Amen. Amen is only 37.5% from 5–24 feet and about 30% from 10–24 feet. His 5–9-foot finishing does not establish that he has a good midrange jumper.

    I for one do you not agree with your assessment methodology that would make Zach Edey the Crown Prince of Midrange Shooting for last season.
     
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