The "franchise player" debate has been settled. It's Amen.

I dont think we have a top tier 1A generational player, but I am not sure we dont have a Brunson, Cade, Haliburton type of player. IMO, the biggest fit issue on the team is the triangle between Amen, Sengun and Reed.

I think because of this poor fit triangle, the coaching and youth we dont really know exactly what these guys full potential looks like.

Also, I know its been a while but the Billups led Pistons had a good run with no tier 1 superstar also. Before Kerr got to the Warriors Steph wasnt viewed as a generational player. Even Shai wasnt viewed as a perennial MVP type guy until 2-3 years ago.

I think because the league has been traditionally so star driven the value of coaching, player development and roster construction has been undervalued somewhat.

Now, if you dont have a MVP caliber player jumping off the screen at you, you're doomed.

I say all this to say I wouldnt rule out a Rockets surge as a true contender with the right moves. I dont think the Rockets have made those moves though.


Also, Regarding Reed and Amen being lead ball handlers and would it benefit the team to 'build around Amen'...

First, Reed was in the 93rd percentile as a pnr ball handler during the regular season but we have a coach that doesnt see him as a pg. He was actually elite as a pnr ball handler and we've wasted two seasons not leaning into that more.

Small sample size but Regarding Amen, the Rockets net, off and def rating all take a jump when Amen is on the floor without Adams, Clint or Sengun. But again we RARELY see those lineups and instead we lean into Ime ball and go the complete opposite direction. We have 3 non shooting, mostly ground bound type centers.

Giannis wasnt mvp championship type guy until they brought in Lopez and committed to 5 out.

We dont really know how far Amen could go because we dont commit to giving him 5 out spacing enough.

I actually wouldnt mind going after Myles Turner.

Now even though I would move Sengun, to be fair to him, we havent seen how he looks in an optimized setting either. Give him 5 out and a Jrue Holiday type PG and how does he look?

Rockets really need to pick a guy and lean into them to see how far they can go precisely because we DONT have the clear cut superstar jumping off the screen... So pick the guy they think has the highest upside and lean into it.

I would go with Amen and Reed since they fit together on both ends and I think Amen has the most upside on the team.

 

I don't really care about regular season stats, we all know it's a totally different game in the playoffs. We are a 50 win team and will still be demolished in the first round every year since it's so easy to gameplan against us in a 7 game series.

 

But these same people hyped up Sheppard after a couple good games as generational and gave him comps to Curry and CP3 lol

 

@xtruroyaltyx

These numbers don’t indicate he can’t shoot outside of 3 feet. The first set of numbers show how he shot 3 ft to less than 10 ft. This means it could have been 9ft 8ft 7ft etc within the paint area.

 

Sheppard was in the 62nd percentile for 25-26 regular season. His lack of ability to drive and score in the paint is likely the reason he hasn’t been an effective PNR player. Amen can get in the paint but doesn’t finish well. Neither of them have been effective as PNR ball handler.

 

bot reg and playoffs Amen leads the team in net rating and leads the league in minutes

 

All of the zones were relatively poor 3-10 10-16 16-24 and 3p and all of them declined year over year.

cumulatively the average among all of those zones combined was .380ish (last weeks math).

He doesn't shoot a whole lot from those zones and his @ the rim volume is so high and a good percentage as well, it really brings his total up.

I think this is a make or break year for him (and maybe that's why Sone hasn't committed to him or Sengun). He needs to get above 30% from 3 and improve somewhat in each of those shot zones to make teams actually defend him.

 

Net rating really isn't an individual stat ..... and isn't the be all end all of player impact.

 

I agree he needs to at least have a reliable jumper at least 15 ft and get that 3pt% up. The way you wrote it seemed like you were saying he couldn’t shoot more than 3 ft. Also FYI some of the best guards in the league shot equal or worse than him in that 3-10 space. Brunson shot .475 and SGA shot .478. And like him they have tons of shots in that area since they can get to the paint, especially Brunson.

 

Net rating on off win shares it is very relevant when comparing to teammates

Alot better than 3fg%

 

The Rockets played small ball with DFS this past season a little. The Rockets played without a center Amen's rookie year.

With how the Amen is defended just did not work (Rockets defense didn't work though either). I don't think there is a probably for on ball or when he's in an action. Off ball, that won't work if the Rockets sit with Amen out of actions off ball all the time, but I will say the Rockets are the ones that decide if Amen will be on ball, in an action, or off ball. This isn't to say a different defense won't work as the Rocket's either put Amen on ball or had him in actions. This isn't to say the defense doesn't cave with a stertch 5. However, the defense that crushed the Rockets (i.e., how Amen was defended) this season depended on 2 non shooters such that the off ball non-shooters defender could basically play free safety.

On getting the stretch 5, that is a different issue. That is tough. I am only saying the way Amen was defended (i.e., having the off ball non-shooter's defender not in the action act like a free safety) has been absolutely shredded when Amen gets 4 or even 3.5 shooters on the court. Maybe opposing defense find alternatives that work, but the way Amen is currently defended is a gimmick that depends on the Rockets not having 4 shooters on the court with him. Plenty of offenses work with a center. Amen's shooting is basically equivalent to a center, but he has so much more than the average center on offense.

Other issues may happen and it is difficult to get a stretch 5.

 

I think there’s Some hope for Amen in terms of shooting. 3 players come to mind who were similar to Amen with no reliable or consistent jumpshot. Aaron Gordon, Jermani Grant, Obi Toppin.

Gordon’s shot was non existent. He shot 27% in 3pt% rookie year and 20% midrange. He followed that up by shooting 29% 3pt% and 30% midrange range his second season. He finally reached 33% 3pt% and 33% mid range year 4 and 34% 3pt year 5.

Jerami Grant likewise had no shot. Shot 24% 3pt% second year when he got more PT and 23% midrange. It took him 5 years to get to 39% 3pt% and 34% mid range. (He shot 29% in 3’s im his 4th year) incredible turnaround.

Toppin shot 30% his first 2 years then dramatically turned it into 34% year 3 and hit 40% couple years ago.

Players grow and evolve every year. These players aforementioned shows this evolution. Hopefully Amen can take that same leap.

 

Completely agree. Also, one thing that gives me hope is Amen's major improvements at the FT line. Going from .684 on 2.5 FTA per game to .78 on 5 FTA per game in two years is pretty amazing.

 

this also gives me hope
I know small sample size but still hoping he can continue his playoffs jumper efficiency this season

range in ft 10-14 ft. 15-19 ft. 20-24 ft.
reg season 34.2% 35.4% 23.1%
playoffs 54.5% 42.9% 37.5%

 

I want to point out that all of those players had pretty good form on their jump shots as well. The issue with Sengun is that his form is just very inconsistent and he has a hitch in his shot on top of that.

I do think that we could build the roster out considering the limitations of Amen/Smart/Sengun. I am just worried about the coaching and lack there as far as creativity in the scheme.

I want Amen to have this season on the ball for us to get enough data to figure out what his role is going forward. apart from that we should be getting Shepherd enough repetition to where we can begin to finalize a projection as well. we have to figure out if either of these guys are point guards.

 

Maybe Grant did but point is the form didn’t produce favorable results. Toppin and Gordon did not have good form. Gordon was maybe the most similar to Amen scoring through driving and in the paint.

 

We already seen Amen on the ball on most plays last year. We know he has the potential to be a great good playmaker while taking good care of the ball.

What Amen needs this off season is work on his mid jumper and 3 ball. The coaching staff should figure out which kind of looks is best for Amento have a consistently decent jumper.

Whether its pullups, off screens, c&s, runners, floaters, fade aways, step backs, etc.

 

he played a lot of ISO at the end of the year and in the playoffs. A lot of teams played him one on one. If he had a pullup J that would add a lethal layer to his game. He also came off the high screen a lot to attack. If he can stop and shoot at the 15 ft FT line like Westbrook, CP3 he would be hard to stop. Combine this with a corner 3, we have a chance.