The "franchise player" debate has been settled. It's Amen.

What's not realistic is assuming a 23 year old who has improved in every other way won't improve as a jump shooter. There are a million possibilities, but this board only deals in extremes. For example, it is possible that Amen develops:

• A fantastic jump shot.
• A good jump shot.
• A respectable jump shot.
• A jump shot respectable enough so that defenders can't sag.
• He doesn't develop a jump shot, but every other aspect of his game improves to the point that he overcomes this weakness.
• He doesn't develop a jump shot, and it limits him to being third option on a good team.

Truly, all the examples in the middle are the "realistic examples." But this board focuses on the unrealistic ones, namely, that Amen won't improve at all as a jump shooter, or he'll become an incredible jump shooter.

 

How many players who have a shot as embarrassingly bad as Amen's ever become respectable?

Could it happen? Absolutely, but I view that outcome as similar to Reed becoming Steph or Sengun becoming Jokic.

Let's not pretend that he's just a little bad, he's actively a laughing stock when he's on the perimeter. If he's shooting from 15 feet or more, every defender and every fan of the other team laughs about it like it's Shaq shooting a 3.

I just don't think it's helpful talking about top 5% outcomes as if they are realistic.

 

The irony is although Pippen is a clear HOFer, he was never necessarily a franchise player. Even when he was free of playing with Michael Jordan during the first retirement, he didn't take the team past the 2nd round and once he finally broke from the Bulls he never did much in his post Bulls career.

 

There are a million examples. Let’s break it down by numbers. I’d say it’s fair to say Amen is a .25% 3 point shooter. He has averaged .24 the last two seasons, and averaged .25 after the All Star Break and in the playoffs.

Scottie Pippen averaged .25 on about the same number of 3pa his first three season before averaging .34 - .35. Aaron Gordon shot around .28 his first 3 seasons before averaging around .35. Jason Kidd shot .27 his rookie year, and he ended up with a few seasons shooting .4+. Tony Parker shot .27 at 22 and went on to have .415 and .427 years. Evan Mobley shot .25 and .216 on similar volume to Amen before going on to be considered a decent shooter. I could go on and on.

Amen doesn’t really need to improve much - if he can get to .3 - .33 on a couple shots a game, that should be enough to open things up for him.

By the way, I think Amen has improved as a jump shooter - he’s just done it from the paint. One of Amen’s go-to moves last season was a drive and pull-up from the paint. He took over 100 driving jump shots last season and averaged like .53 on them, which is almost twice as many as he took in 2024 - 2025.

 

This is why I have always said that some fans such as @Bobbythegreat do not understand what they watch. Simmons in no way is the same player as Amen. Simmons didn't have the same explosion off the dribble. He couldn't get in the paint the off the dribble one on one. That's not his game. he was bigger and slower. He scored by driving through open lanes when teams clamped down on Embiid or when defenders had a bad angle on him. He also posted up a lot since he's as big as a 4. A lot of times he hung around the paint or rim to get easy buckets. That's how Simmons scored as opposed to driving or off short rolls etc like Amen.

 

No, it's fair to say he's a 22% 3 point shooter and you can't compare him to guys who were good shooters who had a down season like Evan Mobley or guys who were good shooters but that played back when shooting 3's was seen as almost a gimmick who eventually added it to their game as the league changed.

You aren't going to find many 22% 3 point shooting guards who take 90% of their "shots" within 10 feet of the rim that go on to be respectable shooters.

It's not impossible, it's just highly unlikely that such a clownish shooter will completely turn things around.

 

small sample size but in the playoffs Amen shot a decent 55% on 10-14ft, 43% on 15-19ft, and 38% on 20-24ft

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?CF=10-14 ft. FGM*GE*1&dir=D&sort=10-14 ft. FG PCT

 

No, it’s not fair to say he’s a .22 3 point shooter when he shot .275 last season and has shot .25 since turning 23.

What do you mean, Mobley was a good shooter who had a down year? He shot .25 his first year and .217 his second. He improved as he got older, just like a million other guys have in the league.

 

Again, another example of this board’s ridiculousness. His first year, Amen shot .138 from 3. Post All Star break and through the playoffs, he averaged .25.

But improving to a .3 - .33 shooter? Nah. Impossibly unrealistic.

 

Anything the Rockets (or any team for that matter) need to vault them to perennial contender is highly unlikely. The least unlikely is Amen becoming a decent shooter.

Outside of that Jabari could become a poor man's Durant, Reed could become Stockton 2.0 with hops, or they could find another James Harden out there. Those are all much less likely. Brunson becoming who he became was unlikely. But it happened.

 

There is no point in arguing with BTG. Every post is about Reed, whether his name is mentioned or not. Anybody that might threaten him as the PG of the future for the Rockets will be denigrated. He’s already started in on Thornton even before the first summer league game and his main argument against him is he is too short to play defense and isn’t quick enough to get in the lane, which is laughable given Reed’s shortcomings. His Reed only fandom is only surpassed by his hatred for a guy that is no longer here.

 

He shot 21.6% from 3 last season.....

As to Mobley, it's similar to Reed Sheppard shooting 33% from 3 his rookie season, no one actually thought that was indicative of his ability to shoot.... here came into the league touted as a 3 level scorer, he wasn't done hopeless joke like Amen

 

What’s funny is Amen is arguably the perfect backcourt partner to Sheppard. I can’t imagine a pair more complementary.

 

I actually almost posted this one myself to get the discussion started .... he gets a ton of dunks and the vast majority of his shots are in the "at the rim range".

 

Sheppard's gravity and passing do help improve the spacing, but it's just really hard having a "guard" who is really just a 6'7 center.... at least when you also have an actual center on the court.

The modern NBA just requires better shooting than the early 90's.

Now if Amen miraculously learns how to shoot? Completely different story

 

He gave me a bunch opinion with a splash of cherry picked number rankings with a small sample size. No statistical analysis to be had.

 

Even if Amen doesn’t ever get that much better, I still think that him and Reed together is the perfect pairing. they can help each other as far as offset some of their immediate weaknesses.

what my eyeballs tell me about last year is that Thompson improved greatly from the free-throw line and there were notable improvements in the mid range as well. A lot of of his shot mechanics look very clean in these areas.

the shot mechanics also looked pretty clean for the corner three-pointer. The conversion percentage was low, but I do think that we are going to see a healthy jump there this year.

the shot mechanics anywhere else behind the three-point line remained pretty inconsistent.
Does seem that like when he needed to hit a jumpshot, like in clutch moments that he was pretty effective.

I saw a lot of progress toward the end of the year as far as him Stepping into the mid range or pulling the ball back out and then taking that shot with confidence.
I am very optimistic that we will see an improved jump in percentages this year. especially if we get him down to a few less minutes.

 

This is what people refuse to accept - how Amen's lack of shooting affects everyone else on the court - it's how they defend him (or don't) that allows so many double teams elsewhere - Then get a stretch 5! That really doesn't solve the problem of How teams defend Amen.

Good player - Absolutely!
Franchise / Build Around player - Absolutely Not!

 

I’ve been advocating on trading Sengun. but in thinking about the New York Knicks I think we actually should just keep all of these young guys together. I actually think that Thompson will end up signing a contract that is consistent with his teammates and giving up a little bit of money. it seems like they will either keep Durant to see what the first 40 games looks like or that any trade request has been kept amazingly hush-hush. if the product that we put on the court, the first part of the season seems viable enough to let it roll into the playoffs then I can support that but generally I’d trade Durant to support our young core. I wonder if he would go to Washington DC just to go home. It seems like they will take a little bit of a stab it a playoff run. But it doesn’t even look like there’s a viable path to that contract wise.

 

I gotta dispute this idea of extremes - he's already at the extreme as a shooter outside of 3 feet where he averages .360 from anywhere.

The idea some have is that he's "going to improve his shooting" and they'll point to all kinda things to make that argument and ack as if it's guaranteed he improves. Like his 2:1 assist to turnover ratio or potential assists has anything at all to do with his shooting which is THE REASON teams defend him they way they do.
And lets be real, a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio is the bare minimum, a good ratio is what a 39 year old CP3 posted in his year at San Antonio of 4.65:1 and Tyus Jones posted a 7.35:1 ratio in 23/24. But no matter the A/T ratio, nothing but improved shooting is going to change how teams defend him.

First of all, improvement is not linear nor is it guaranteed.


The facts are that he shot terrible as a rookie 13% from 3. But it wasn't just the 3 point shooting, it was "from anywhere beyond 3 feet."

Year 2 he improved - to .275, Westbrook territory, still terrible but an improvement none the less - He also improved in the mid range that second season.

Year 3 we see a decline to .216 and also declined from "literally everywhere else" (aside from at the rim).

His shooting numbers away from "at the rim" are so bad, and after 3 years of data, it pretty much feels like that is unreasonable to expect him to get to an almost respectable percentage, it's going to require a monumental shift.
Teams invite him to shoot those shots and consider it a won possession when he does because the odds are overwhelmingly on their side.

Some of you keep telling me "he's going to improve (as a shooter)" ..... based upon what? There is no stat or empirical data that you can point to that backs up that assertion. It's just an opinion based on ...

He improved in other area's but not as a shooter and nothing else contributes as much to his and the teams' success and you guys refuse to admit this, instead we get minutes played, potential assists ... move the goalposts with irrelevant to the problem stats.


I think some of you watch the game and just ball watch and don't understand how the way teams defend Amen affects the other 4 dudes on the court.
People talk about spacing and that Amen and Sengun can't coexist, their solution is just trade Sengun for a stretch 5 ..... does that really solve the problem? And again, the problem is how teams defend Amen.


If he ever shoots .300 it'll be a miracle.