Celtics trade Jaylen Brown to Philly for Paul George, 2 first round picks

B-Bob · Jul 2, 2026 at 2:25 PM

zeeshan2 said: ↑

[Charania] Jaylen Brown's statement after being traded from the Boston Celtics to the Philadelphia 76ers:
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Yeah, that sounds totally crazy and toxic, like he has a "disease."

The negative stuff is coming from Boston doing damage control for not wanting to spend the $. (Not that I blame them for being fiscally sane, but the back-channel negativity... that stuff comes back to haunt you.)

The Hunted · Jul 2, 2026 at 3:39 PM

Sounds like the basketball version of the Hopkins trade.

Major · Jul 2, 2026 at 4:48 PM

B-Bob said: ↑

The negative stuff is coming from Boston doing damage control for not wanting to spend the $. (Not that I blame them for being fiscally sane, but the back-channel negativity... that stuff comes back to haunt you.)
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Are they really being fiscally sane? They are getting paid the same amount the next two years, so Boston just has a much crappier player/team for the same cost during Tatum's prime years. Sure, they save money in 2028, but they also don't have a superstar player.

If they wanted to save money, they could have gotten the same picks with some expiring contracts pretty easily, I would think.

astrosrule · Jul 2, 2026 at 4:53 PM

Major said: ↑

Are they really being fiscally sane? They are getting paid the same amount the next two years, so Boston just has a much crappier player/team for the same cost during Tatum's prime years. Sure, they save money in 2028, but they also don't have a superstar player.

If they wanted to save money, they could have gotten the same picks with some expiring contracts pretty easily, I would think.
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Don’t forget brown also would be extended this offseason, so it’s not just the 1 extra year. Unless you think he’s the kinda guy who’s ok not getting paid immediately (lolololol).

J.R. · Jul 2, 2026 at 7:17 PM

ksny15 · Jul 2, 2026 at 7:31 PM

J.R. said: ↑

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He went in on dumbass Colin Cowherd which was awesome

daywalker02 · Jul 2, 2026 at 9:08 PM

That is funny.

sealclubber1016 · Jul 2, 2026 at 10:03 PM

As somebody who doesn't really give a f**k, it's gonna be a fun story to watch play out next season.

The Celtics, some would say arrogantly, think they can just give his shots to the likes of Peyton Pritchard and Hugo Gonzalez with no noticeable drop off. Likewise the Sixers made the playoffs and got to the 2nd round without him. On paper they should be an elite team and favorite to win a title.

It will be probably the loudest test for player impact analytics for star players as you will ever see.

daywalker02 · Jul 2, 2026 at 11:17 PM

daywalker02 · Jul 3, 2026 at 10:21 AM

zeeshan2 · Jul 3, 2026 at 11:17 AM

ksny15 · Jul 3, 2026 at 11:27 AM

zeeshan2 said: ↑

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That GM must be Stone who we know is delusional

zeeshan2 · Jul 3, 2026 at 11:42 AM

“The cool market suggested the existence of a significant gap between the general perception of Brown, who finished sixth in MVP voting this season, and the way he is seen within the NBA. Though the idea of him being viewed as the seventh-best player on a given team was widely mocked, a recent report that one front-office member saw Brown in that way illuminated the reality that advanced analytics never shined too brightly on Brown’s game. Even more pointedly, a current general manager, speaking anonymously to comment on internal team discussions, told The Athletic in the wake of the trade that he doesn’t view Brown as a top-50 player in the NBA”
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/74...unlocked_article_code=1.u1A.4imt.Ylz4hz13N4Xc

zeeshan2 · Jul 3, 2026 at 11:53 AM

Jaylen Brown is a great scorer.

But “great scorer” and “offensive engine” are not the same thing.

An offensive engine creates impact in 3 distinct ways:

1. Score efficiently on big volume
2. Reduce team turnovers while carrying huge usage
3. Create better shots for teammates

That is what people mean by offensive impact.

Not just: did you score points?
Not just: did you get assists?

Did the team score points more efficiently because you were on the floor?

Jaylen is interesting because he had a good scoring season. I estimate his scoring impact last year around +2, the best mark of his career.

But if we are asking whether he is an elite offensive engine, the bar is much higher.

Let's start with scoring efficiency.

Jaylen took around 36 shots per 100 possessions at 57.5% TS last season. ("shots" includes freethrow possessions).

At that volume, TS% (True Shooting Percentage) has enormous leverage. Every 1% of TS% is worth roughly +0.6 points per 100 possessions on the scoreboard.

So the gap between 57.5 TS% and 62 TS% is not cosmetic. It matters. That is roughly +2.5 points of offensive impact. Scoring at 62% TS would move him from a top 50 per possession analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

But right now, among high-usage offensive stars, the efficiency gap is clear.

Shai: 67.0 TS%
Giannis: 65.9%
Curry: 64.8%
Kawhi: 63.3%
Luka: 61.8%
Mitchell: 61.7%
Brunson: 59%

Jaylen: 57.5 TS%

Jaylen’s scoring still has value because the volume is massive, but he's not generating the impact that some of these other guys do from scoring.

The second path is turnover value.

This part is underrated. If you are using a huge number of your team's possessions, how often you turn the ball over before you shoot matters on the scoreboard.

Historically, a lot of high-volume creators give their teams a significant advantage in the turnover game. Jordan, Kobe, Iverson, Lou Will, T-Mac, Melo, Shai, Kawhi, Brunson types. All of these guys have generated significant impact from reducing team turnovers and it's clear as day in the impact analytics.

They shoot a ton, and they also help the team avoid turnovers because the possession ends in a shot instead of a mistake more often than the league does.

Jaylen does not provide that kind of impact.

His box-score profile estimates his offensive turnover impact around neutral, historically, and last year. The 5-year lineup data, and the eyes, agree.

That does not mean he is killing the offense with turnovers.

It means he is not creating the turnover advantage that many true engines create.

Let's look at a stat called "Scoring Turnover Rate". It is defined as non-passing turnovers divided by scoring attempts. It's typically the ball handlers fault when he turns it over on something that isn't a pass.

Here are some high usage scorers around the league in Scoring Turnover Rate (Lower is better)

Jaylen Brown: 10.3%
Giannis: 10.5%
Paolo: 9%
Ant: 6.6%
Shai: 4.4%.
Kawhi: 5.5%.
Brunson: 4.1%
Mitchell: 5.3%
Tatum: 6.5% (2025)

Lower is better, and when the scoring volume is massive this accumulates to a meaningful amount of turnover differences between players which translates to offensive impact.

You see Brunson scored at 59% TS, a down year for him, but he turned the ball on handling related mistakes, per scoring attempt, at 4.1% vs Jaylen's 10.3%.

If you are on-ball enough to shoot over a third of your team’s shots, ball security gets magnified. The skill of getting to your shot without losing the possession is a big part of offensive value.

Top players can generate up to +2.5 points of offensive impact from reducing team turnovers.

Imagine if you could just imbue Jaylen Brown with Kawhi's handle. How much better would you feel about him having the ball in his hands even if he was shooting the same shots at the same efficiency. Instinctively, you know it matters, analytically it undeniably does. Having Kawhi's turnover economy alone would move him from a top 50 analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

(Passing turnovers matter too and he's average there but it's less meaningful to discuss because he's not passing the ball that much.)

The third path is playmaking.

Jaylen took 36 shots per 100 possessions and generates only 13 potential assists per 100 (shots, if they were made, that would be an assist for JB).

He shoots almost 3x as much he directly creates a potential assist. He's much more of a scorer than he is a passer.

Shai is at 34 shots to 18 potential assists which is lower than 2:1 ratio. So you see, even the best scorer in the league has a more balanced distribution of shots and potential assists.

Jaylen averages only around 2 rim assists per 100, which is low compared to the best playmakers, so he's not creating obvious value via lobs and easy layups.

A scoring heavy profile can be great if the scoring efficiency and turnover efficiency are overwhelming like it is for Kawhi or Shai, but neither are for Jaylen. That's the problem. Just one of the two being elite, or both being good, can be enough to get him to engine status. But he has neither. Perhaps he can still improve.

But if the scoring efficiency is low for the top stars, and the turnover value is around neutral, and the playmaking is limited, the elite-engine case falls apart. It just does.

You have other players like Cade and LaMelo who have similar scoring efficiency profiles to Jaylen, but those players are elite playmakers according to both the analytics and the public. Not only are they passing the ball a lot more, but they are generating a ton of assists to players at the rim, which are markers of elite playmaking.

The point is not that Jaylen Brown is bad.

He is a positive player who plays a lot of minutes.

The point is that his team impact has been very weak for a supermax offensive centerpiece because he has not proven himself to be a real offensive engine.
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Mr. Dominant · Jul 3, 2026 at 4:55 PM

zeeshan2 · Jul 6, 2026 at 10:20 AM

Reeko · Jul 6, 2026 at 10:36 AM

Jaylen Brown isn’t a top 50 player in the NBA?

this anti-Brown narrative that’s being pushed is so fake and manufactured

he pissed off the wrong people in the league, and now they’re trying to tarnish him

makes me want to root for Jaylen Brown even more

fck em

Reeko · Jul 6, 2026 at 12:58 PM

Blazers' analytics view Brown as a "negative player"

Ain’t these the same MFers who traded for Ja Morant?

you really can’t make this sh*t up

they’re not even trying with the Jaylen Brown slander

Brown’s the 7th best player on a team…Brown’s not even top 50 in the NBA

man, stfu

J.R. · Jul 6, 2026 at 3:11 PM

ElPigto · Jul 6, 2026 at 3:18 PM

J.R. said: ↑

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They been dragging Jaylen's name through the mud, but this is the only real explanation. They didn't want to tie up the cap to two players. Makes sense 100%. @Reeko

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Celtics trade Jaylen Brown to Philly for Paul George, 2 first round picks

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Celtics trade Jaylen Brown to Philly for Paul George, 2 first round picks

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