He has been pretty adamant that he will not waive his no trade, he really seems to like it in Minnesota
If I knew there was a high chance I was getting brought back if I missed the playoffs, I’d absolutely trade those two for Ryan and Buxton.
Agree I do think this is the toughest "one month away" from the deadline to figure out who will and won't be available in a long long time Kansas City and the Angels are the only two teams in the AL more than 5 games out of a playoff spot right now. AND, the Yanks and Tampa are the only two teams with any kind of playoff spot security right now, every other team who would be in if the playoffs started today are within 2.5 games of being out of the playoffs In the NL the Mets, SF and Colorado are the only three teams more than 5 games out of a playoff spot. The Dodgers, Milwaukee, Atlanta and Philly all are looking pretty solid though, meaning it will be easier for some of the teams in the middle to fall out of it, cause just getting to .500 isn't going to make you feel clearly in the race in the NL So as of right now you only have 5 teams that clearly should be sellers, and two of those teams (Angels and Rockies) have owners that almost never let them sell. BUT outside of the Yankees and Rays, every team in the AL could be in a position to sell by the deadline. They are ALL a really bad two week stretch from being sellers. Heck, even the Rays have been know to both sell and buy at the deadline when they are in the race This has the potential to be a wild deadline this year. The other thing that could possibly be a factor is the CBA. I know most fans feel like there will be a work stoppage next year. I am in the much smaller group that doesn't think there will be. BUT the owners have a MUCH better idea of whether there will be or not, and obviously that will play into some owners directives and/or willingness to buy or sell I hope we continue to play well and are buyers. I really think we are 1 bat away from being a top tier AL offense. We are middle of the pack as it is and are always running at least one OF out there who really shouldn't be starting a game in MLB, just putting an average hitter in their spot would be a big upgrade. If the recent output from Imai is legit, we could have as good of a 1-2 at the top of a playoff rotation as there is in the AL. We can't trade ourselves into having the pitching depth of the Yankees, but in a playoff series we don't have to The team I hope falls out of it is Baltimore, you mentioned Rogers the other day and I think he would be a good target if they fall out. I also like Taylor Ward, I know everyone wants a LHH, but our team OPS is actually 10 points higher vs RHP than LHP, and Ward has consistently had a .700 OPS vs RHP which would be a big upgrade for us. Dude gives a very professional at bat also which this team could use
Agree with all that. To your point about the owners having insight into the CBA outcome, if Jim Crane expects a lockout and lost/shortened 2027 season, he could be very motivated to maximize the odds of winning in 2026, damn the cost. Firstly, he’s 72 and his involvement in the team seems like it might be waning. He hasn’t spoken to the media since January. So he could be on a year-to-year basis of being the owner or at least being an involved owner that really cares about his team winning. Secondly, I would imagine Crane has a heavy affinity for Jose Altuve. Crane could be watching Altuve this season, and thinking of not having a 2027 season, and logically come to the conclusion that this is the last season in which Altuve is a quality major league player; that could motivate Crane to do whatever it takes to maximize the odds of getting Altuve another ring.
Another all-in deadline hypothetical: Astros get: CF Jung-Hoo Lee $33M ($7M 2026, $13M 2027, $13M 2028) Giants get: OF/2B Brice Matthews P Ethan Pecko 3B Xavier Neyens Astros get: RP Devin Williams $25M ($5M 2026, $10M 2027, $10M 2027) Mets get: P Bryce Mayer C/1B Jason Schiavone OF Lucas Spence Astros get: OF Mickey Moniak $1M Rockies get: P Jackson Nezuh OF Anthony Huezo OF Taylor Trammell IF Braden Shewmake Astros get: P Kris Bubic $1M Royals get: OF Joseph Sullivan P Nick Potter Rays get: RP Bryan Abreu RP Enyel De Los Santos RP Nate Pearson Astros get: OF Brendan Summerhill OF Dean Moss Resulting roster: CF Lee SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Paredes 1B Walker LF Moniak 2B Altuve C Diaz RF Smith Bench: Allen, Vazquez, Wade, Meyers SP: Brown, Imai, Bubic, Lambert, Arrighetti, Javier RP: Hader, Williams, King, Okert, Blubaugh, Blanco, McCullers Optioned: Alexander, Burrows, Gordon, Teng, Santa, Ullola, VanWey, Price, Delgado, Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Cole, Loperfido IL: Sousa, Walter, Wesneski, Correa This would be a world series contending roster imho. Losing Neyens is the main blow to the farm system. There would be no major payroll implications.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/73...unlocked_article_code=1.t1A.UKGI.WkHlqhpD1jTu Needs: 1. OF who can hit in the top 5 of the lineup 2. RH leverage RP 3. Stabilizing MoR SP Tradeable assets: 1. ~$10M in payroll flexibility 2. Upper level 2nd/3rd tier OF and C prospects (Cole, Sullivan, Spence, Dezenzo, Brutcher, Janek, Bush, Schiavone) 3. Upper level 2nd/3rd tier P prospects (Pecko, Ullola, Santa, Mayer, Hertzler, Nezuh) 4. Excess big leaguers after trades are made (Abreu, De Los Santos, Pearson, Blubaugh, Teng, Burrows, Matthews, Loperfido, Meyers, Trammell) Finding a RP is totally doable, but might not happen because it won’t be a priority until after the OF need is filled. The OF need is very unlikely to be filled by a star player; there aren’t any that are certain to be available, and Houston doesn’t have the prospects to beat out other teams for star players. Most likely the player will be either a 2nd tier rental (like Taylor Ward) or a combination of 2 platoon players (like Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell). There’s possibly a lot of SP available but I would imagine if Houston completes a trade there it’ll be a last minute deal for a guy whose value is down (Bubic, Ray, etc.). Gonna be an exciting next 5 weeks.
One interesting thing about the search for an OF is that there are like 6 teams who project as sellers that have more than one OF they could shop: Twins: Buxton and Larnach Reds: Bleday and Steer Orioles: Ward and Cowser Rockies: Moniak and McCarthy Red Sox: Abreu and Duran Royals: Thomas and Marte Not sure how that will affect the market but you’d think Houston will be able to find a match in there somewhere.
Trading Lee is very complicated because of his opt out. My hypothetical is probably not very realistic because the Giants throwing in money after 2027 would need to be contingent on him not opting out. If he traded, it will be far more likely that it’s a straight deal with no money attached and the team that trades for him will assume the risk associated with his opt out. AAV is calculated based on guaranteed money (which includes years after a player opt out). If Houston were to trade for Lee it would mean Crane approved going way over the tax. In that case you could probably take Pecko out of the deal and it would just be Matthews and Neyens for Lee. It’s Cranes money not mine so I’d prefer that to adding Pecko but like I said it’s very unlikely to happen. The more I think about Potter the less I want him traded for somebody like Bubic (a rental with major injury risk)
It’s possible that Houston might need OF who can hit LHP more than RHP. If Wade is anything close to what he was before he got hurt, or if he just meets his career averages, he’s a solid 6-hole hitter against RHP (he’s unplayable against LHP). Trammell has a 130 wRC+ against RHP this season and is solid average for his career (he’s unplayable against LHP). Loperfido has been average against RHP both this season and over his entire MLB sample (he’s unplayable against LHP). Cam Smith has a 115 wRC+ against LHP with an 81 against RHP. Brice Matthews has been universally awful. Jake Meyers is an interesting case; he’s been perfectly average against lefties in his career, but has been bloody awful against them this season (.439 ops). Some of that is bad batted ball luck (.171 BABIP), so it’s possible he’s due for a rebound there. Looking at all that makes me understand the rumored interest Houston has in Jo Adell and Taylor Ward. From the numbers, the best path to fixing the OF this season is to shift Smith into a platoon role (limiting him to lefties), demote Loperfido in favor of Wade, and demote Matthews to replace him with an elite hitter against LHP. The question is what to do with Meyers and Trammell because they aren’t performing predictably, with Meyers more likely to improve and Trammell more likely to slump; can a Trammell/Meyers platoon produce at a combined above-average clip (with Meyers improving to his career norm against LHP and Trammell continuing to mash righties)? Adding a good all around hitter like Ward would leave the Astros with something like: RF Ward/Smith CF Trammell/Meyers LF Wade/Ward That would give Houston a pretty good offensive OF against RHP but with some pretty poor defense. They’d project to be pretty good all around against LHP, assuming Meyers rebounds to his career norms. Adding a guy like Adell would give them: RF Smith CF Trammell/Meyers LF Wade/Adell In this scenario they’d have an average all-around OF against RHP and an above-average offense with elite defense against LHP. This would require them to go down to only one bench player capable of playing 2B/SS/3B (Wade can play 1B); that probably isn’t much of a consideration. Acquiring both Adell and Ward would solve a lot of problems on offense: RF Ward/Adell CF Trammell/Smith LF Wade/Ward This gives them a very good offensive OF against RHP but with poor defense; it gives them a very good offensive OF against LHP with questionable but likely average defense. The main issue with this is that there might not be a true CF on the roster, with Smith new to the position and Trammell merely average there and probably better suited for the corners. They main takeaways for me are that Matthews needs to go, and that if they believe in Wade, they don’t need a platoon guy who mashes righties.
Good stuff, If it was my choice I would trade for Ward put him in RF and Wade in LF when facing RHP. I would keep Meyers and Loperfido on the roster for defensive purposes. Using Loperfido as a defensive replacement in RF late in games and moving Ward to LF. Meyers and Loperfido would form a platoon in CF also with the one that isn't playing being the late inning defensive replacement. Ward would immediately become my 3 hole hitter, with Parades batting 4th, Walker hitting 5th.
So the lineups would look something like: Vs RHP: SS Pena average DH Alvarez elite 3B Paredes above average RF Ward above average LF Wade above average 1B Walker above average 2B Altuve above average (assumes rebound) CF Loperfido average C Diaz average (assumes rebound) Bench: Allen, Vasquez, Meyers, Smith Vs LHP: SS Pena elite DH Alvarez elite 3B Paredes elite 2B Altuve elite (assumes rebound) LF Ward above average 1B Walker above average RF Smith above average C Diaz above average (assumes rebound) CF Meyers average (assumes rebound) Bench: Allen, Vasquez, Loperfido, Wade I like it. Fans would almost certainly be b****ing about OF defense but the offense projects really good. I’d probably keep Trammell over Loperfido but they’re close enough for it not to matter.
Only thing I don’t like is only having one bench guy who can play the infield. It’s hard to have 6 guys who can only play OF or DH on the roster
Wade can play 1B. Loperfido can play 1B and 2B in a pinch. The odds of having both SS and 3B hurt in the same game are astronomically low. And that roster has 2 OF platoons so the only true bench players are Allen and Vasquez, both of whom would get regular time via rest days for the starters.
Astros get: SP Sonny Gray OF Jarren Duran $4M Red Sox get: P AJ Blubaugh OF/2B Brice Matthews P Bryce Mayer OF Jake Meyers Astros get: OF Mickey Moniak $1M Rockies get: OF Taylor Trammell OF Zach Cole P Jackson Nezuh Resulting roster: SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Paredes 1B Walker CF Moniak 2B Altuve LF Wade RF Smith C Diaz Bench: Duran, Allen, Vasquez, Dezenzo SP: Brown, Gray, Lambert, Imai, Arrighetti, Blanco RP: Hader, King, Okert, Javier, Teng, Abreu, De Los Santos Optioned: Price, Whitcomb, Delgado, Loperfido, Alexander, Burrows, Gordon, Pecko, Santa, Ullola, VanWey, Wesneski IL: Walter, Correa, McCullers, Sousa DFA: Pearson, Shewmake
