Jack Daniel Valbrune turned in a multi-walk game for the DSL Orange team. One of those walks drove in a run. He also went 2-3 on the day with an RBI infield single. Valbrune also struck out for the third time this season.
I'm gonna assume this kids stuff is pretty unremarkable because he's had completely dominant K/BB and WHIP numbers thus far and I've heard nary a peep about him as a prospect. I get that he's 22 but damn it looks impressive. At the least it feels like he should be in Asheville already.
To me, there are 3-4 teams that don't operate on a strict $/WAR framework as they have incredible budgets. These teams care more about total WAR. Trying to adapt the $/WAR framework to fit teams not operating on a $/WAR framework seems like it would make the $/WAR framework still not fit teams that care only a little about the $, and no longer fits the vast majority of the league. Granted, I totally get minimizing the 0-1 WAR players as they don't help too much towards postseason and are hard to distinguish between -1 and 0 WAR players. The 1-2 WAR players have a ton of value though to the majority of teams trying to make the playoffs. Having those guys instead of what the Astros call OFs is huge and them being disappointing is usually not a below 0 WAR season.
Not sure the best way to develop Neyens. I want him to develop his swing. He just isn't swinging enough to develop much in A ball, but going up maybe too much for him.
This is a great point. It would have been really cool if that article had broken down the $/war spending by team.
It’s probably Waner Luciano’s last stand in Fayetteville. Homering for the third consecutive game is a good way to buy more time.
He must have a very high ceiling underneath the hood to get the kind of leash he’s gotten, especially since he doesn’t have much defensive value. I read a couple of years ago that he had some of the best exit velos in all of the FCL but haven’t seen much in the top line results. Maybe it’s clicking.
I think he's the kind of player who really got hurt by the elimination of short season leagues. He's only 21, the same age as many college draftees this year. I wonder what it is about his game that just hasn't worked outside of the complex. He seems to have both raw power and contact skills. It looks like he hits a ton of pop ups? I'm not sure I've seen a prospect like him.
Yes - his bat is high upside. At some point he will have to produce but he has the intelligence and tools to be a DH type bat. I’m not sure it happens though.
Reading some more, this is what I think Luciano’s story is: He showed plus bat speed and a lot of offensive potential in the complexes over 2022-2023. As a teenager across the DSL and FCL he cranked 16 HR in ~100 games with very healthy k/bb rates. But he was prone to swinging at bad pitches inside and prone to swinging too hard. In 2024-2025, he moved up to A ball and worked on those flaws, and was able to dramatically lower his swinging strike rate. He lowered his swing rate and raised his contact rate. But in the process he took some power off his swing to allow him more bat control which sapped his power; he only hit 8 HR over those ~150 games and posted extremely low BABIP. So far this year he’s been able to maintain those improvements and add back some power. He’s hitting more line drives and homers and fewer pop-ups. He is one of only 4 prospects in the system in full season ball with a swinging strike rate below 8%. He’s the only prospect in full season ball with a swinging strike rate below 8% and an ISO above .200. So his bat has real potential to be plus in all facets of hitting. He has risk of becoming overweight and/or maturing into a stationary player, but my guess is his time at 1B hasn’t gone well, so they are really hoping he stays viable at 3B, and are mixing in some time in RF because his arm is decent and his speed isn’t bad for a guy with his body type. He must have at least decent lateral quickness because they are also continuing to give him time at 2B. But the bat is going to have to carry him.
Homering for the fourth straight game is a great way for Waner Luciano to buy some more time. As Snake pointed out, he's also had some absurdly low BABIP numbers (career .237 BABIP), so maybe he's just the unluckiest hitter in baseball history. His walk and strikeout rates have been reasonable, so it seems like everything he's put in play has somehow found a defender.
After Hayden Wesneski left, Brett Gillis followed and he allowed a run on a solo homer, one other hit, walked one, and struck out two over the final five innings as Corpus won 5-2 in Northwest Arkansas. Yamal Encarnacion hit his 4th home run of the season.
Statistical oddity: Fayetteville RP Ryan Mathieson now has 7 wins after blowing a lead then watching his team retake the lead the next inning. He is 7-0 in 25.1 ip. He is tied for 10th in the entire minor leagues in wins.
They are expecting he will play mediocre defense in the big leagues and eventually could be limited to DH. However there are also some in the organization that think his hit tool will age like wine and play up in the big leagues if he keeps improving. At some point he has to break through but they will be patient - it doesn’t cost them much.
Didn’t realize Nehomar Ochoa has 28 stolen bases already. Impressive for a guy listed at 6’4 230, also getting some run in CF. Ochoa will be an interesting case study-considering the Astros development team got their hands on him fresh out of HS (I believe in the 11th round). He’s still striking out quite a bit, but the other numbers look pretty good. Maybe becoming a plus base runner can help offset some of the K issues.
