I don’t know how you can just assume Imai is going to become more consistent. Nothing he’s done so far warrants that assumption. Now could it happen? Sure. I like Lambert as well but he doesn’t have the track record to not be considered a question mark as far as potential playoff starter goes. It’s not just the Yankees that are far superior to ours. Seattle and TB are much better as well. Whoever comes out of the NL will have a far superior rotation. Look at the Dodgers, Phillies, and Brewers. All of those teams have two absolute studs.
It’s all shades of gray. Is Lambert a question mark? To some degree, sure, but at this point he’s 60+ innings and a dozen starts into the season with #3 top line results and #4 underlying results. If you gave me even odds on Lambert putting up 2+ fwar on the season, I’d take it. I would guess guys with these kind of results at this point in a season tend to hold up more often than not (injury risk excepted). The same goes for Imai. Half of his starts have been really good or borderline dominant. Half have been completely unacceptable. If you’re going to have a guy with a 6.15 era in your rotation, it’s better to have a boom or bust guy like Imai over a steady turd like a Brandon Bielak. If Imai is in a playoff rotation, there’s a 50/50 shot it’s either a very likely win or a forfeit. Those aren’t bad odds, considering. I wouldn’t bet on any single pitcher in Houston’s rotation being a quality Game 3 or Game 2 SP in October, but in the aggregate I think the odds are pretty fair that at least one of Imai, Lambert, Javier, Arrighetti, Pecko, or Burrows will be able to fit the bill. I can’t say the same at this point about the offense. Houston has 3 good hitters, another 3-4 who can reasonably be expected to be worthy bottom of the order hitters in a playoff lineup, and several guys who look like quality bench players. But for now I have almost no faith that some combination of Walker, Altuve, Smith, Diaz, Wade, Loperfido, Matthews, Meyers, or anyone one else will be able to capably fill the meat of the lineup behind Pena, Paredes, and Alvarez in a playoff lineup, and I think if they expect to truly contend they need to focus on adding at least 1 elite elite bat and another quality bat. That’s a tall order that I don’t think Houston has the resources to fill or the roster to warrant the cost. But maybe I’m wrong or maybe Houston gets lucky.
If they traded K.Alvarez/Neyens etc... for a Skubal rental would you do it? What other Aces are available?
But .. who cares? The season is infinitely more entertaining if you're competing for or in the playoffs. Why worry about all the reasons they won't win if they get there - 97% of the teams every year are going to lose. Most of those great rotations will end up losing in the playoffs, if they even make it.
In Tatsuya Imai’s 5 best starts he has a 2.19 era over 28.2ip. In his other 5 starts he has a 15.32 era over 12.1ip
Because I don’t want to throw away assets for a team that doesn’t have a chance at winning. I’m not opposed to actually trying to go for it in a weak AL if that’s what they want to do but they absolutely need a starter.
I’m not even saying they need an ace. Just give me a Robbie Ray type. Something similar to Kukuchi when we traded for him. No, I wouldn’t trade either of those guys for a rental though.
You’re right that an OF bat is a bigger need than a SP. All I’m saying is the rotation is weak for a potential playoff team and we are hoping for a lot of good fortune for it to pan out.
I was literally looking thru fangraphs last night trying to decide who was the most Kikuchi-like trade target and settled on Ray.
Oh absolutely - I wouldn't make any major moves either way. The team is not good enough to be amongst the best, and no trades are going to change that. But they are (theoretically) good enough to create an exciting season for fans, and trading away stars is unlikely to end up replacing those stars in future years given the failure rate of prospects. I think they can make minor moves on the fringe if they want (or stand pat) and give the team an exciting season with no real pressure or expectations.
I would hate for them to trade those guys, but in the end prospects are just prospects. But if they did, I would be pissed if they didn't completely fill the holes in this roster. The team better be able to stack up with any team to win the World Series. I better feel like I did in September 2017 or 2019. That means get at least 1 #1-2 SP, a dominant RH reliever, and a LH OF who projects for 125 wRC+/OPS+ or better. 3-5 additions that are no doubters to improve this roster or don't give up Alvarez or Neyens.
Since May 1st the Astros have 13 players with at least 50 PAs. Guess how many have a wRC+ above 100? Times up - 3 (Yordan, Pena, and Paredes) Guess how many have a wRC+ above 90? Times up - 4 (Altuve) Guess how many have a wRC+ above 80? Times up - 5 (Walker) Thats 49 games. Nearly 1/3 of the season with 6 below average and 5 bad hitters in your lineup. The early 2000s Astros with Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus playing everyday and no DH laugh at that. And FTR both Everett and Ausmus had a career 69 wRC+ for the Astros. Since May 1st: Matthews: 56 Meyers: 45 Vazquez: 28
Read yesterday on mlbtraderumors that Sonny Gray is considering waiving his NTC should BOS decide to be sellers
He would be stupid not if it meant going to a contender. I wonder if we have anything Boston wants that isn't one of our core pieces. Too bad Correa is injured or I would have said Paredes.
Astros are a strong starting pitcher away from being a shoe in for the playoffs. if he’s really good then I believe they could make a run.
Here is my hope or maybe, wish. Wade goes back to where he was before his injury, where he can hold down the fort in the outfield platooning with Matthews and Alvarez in left, with Matthews playing some centerfield. Matthews only plays away from Minute Maid until he gets some glasses. Imai becomes more consistent as he gets more comfortable and confident. Maybe even bring his split finger back that he hasn't used at all. Lambert continues doing what he has been doing, and Spencer gets his mojo back once Vasquez starts catching for him again. Two out of Blanco, Javier, and McCullers are healthy enough to be a good long reliever. If we get back to 500 before the trade deadline and are firmly competing for a playoff spot, I see Crane being aggressive and going after a 2/3 starter and a better bat, that can platoon when Alvarez isn't playing in left during the playoffs.
