Our once proud franchise is being run into the ground

Headed into yr 7 of the rebuild and the fanbase is depressed. Not a good sign. It’s not that the fans are spoiled or entitled, or are just plain morons. Certainly some fans are. But more likely, is that the org is on the wrong track and folks that have supported the team through those Silas tanking yrs think we should be better than we are. Did we exit the rebuild prematurely? many of us feel like we we wasted an opportunity for a reset by being frozen out of last night’s draft. Trading away those nets picks is a killer. So while some folks call us trolls or haters, the truth is most of us are die hard fans who aren’t satisfied on the mediocrity treadmill and don’t want to watch trash basketball like we saw last season. What’s the org’s plan? What’s the vision? I have no idea…going into yr 7 of Stone

 

I don't think Stone is terrible, but he's not particularly good either, which makes him mediocre. The truth is that there are more mediocre franchises than great ones and it's easier to reach mediocrity because being great often requires luck.

That being said, luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. If you don't have a contending team now, then you need to keep your options open and remain flexible. That's why I want Stone to keep our picks for now and play hardball with both Tari and Amen. Our moment can still come, but this ain't it.

 

Or luck is what happens when you give your best player to the Lakers for peanuts and amazingly the ping pong ball has your name on it despite the odds.

 

Ehh, the Rockets are currently ~14th/30 teams in title odds for next season, and 7th/15 teams in the West. It’s also hard to argue we were any better than the 14th-16th best team on the floor in the playoffs last year.

I don’t think it’s outlandish to say our present team and current outlook is mediocre-ish. I would lean a tiny bit higher, but I wouldn’t argue the point.

And “championship or bust” is a bit of a strawman IMO.

“Build a team that you are confident can win a first round series or bust” is more the case.
Personally I think that’s a valid standard. And if you don’t pass it in a few tries, you reset with younger personnel/new leadership etc. At least partially. I think that’s how most teams operate tbf.

 

Gross. The aesthetic jump shot boys at # 3 overall instead of well rounded athletes was literally what ruined the otherwise solid plan the first time around.

 

Well how you measure "mediocrity" can be subjective. To clarify, I was talking record wise. If we measured based off Vegas before FVV's injury we would have not been arguing about mediocrity when we were in the bottom of the contender tier. What Vegas thinks after the offseason concludes maybe different than what the odds are today.

I still think it's a bit doomerish to say our future outlook is mediocre-ish.

It's the philosophy of some of these posters who are losing their heads over this season.

We were literally missing like 45% of our cap for the playoffs. We had a super disappointing season that yielded a 52 wins in our second season of trying to win. We making long term proclamations after an injury riddled post season?

 

LOL. You keep confusing cause and effect so how would you even know about the organization's satisfaction with the status quo? They are just not super irrational like your championship or bust posters who are ready to give up after the first true adversity.

 

I do not really see “rock bottom” or “treadmill of mediocrity” when I look at where the Rockets actually are.

The Rockets are 5th in future first-round picks going forward. With flattened odds, this is still well above average even facotring in that the Rockets might be good for a while. They were 4th in estimated wins from players 24 and under last season, using EPM-based estimated wins, despite down years from 3 of their 5 main young guys. They were 2nd in estimated wins from players 22 and under. They were 9th in regular-season wins and 9th in playoff wins.

They also are not built like a capped-out veteran team. The older contracts come off the books this year or next. They ranked 17th in estimated wins from players not on rookie contracts, and 18th in space under the first apron. Most of the resource base is still tied to young players and future draft capital, not old players blocking the path forward.

I get that EPM is not perfect. But the 24-and-under list had a huge drop after the top 5 teams, and the 22-and-under list had a huge drop after the top 3. So even if you do not take the exact ranking literally, it seems fair to say Houston is probably top 6 in 24-and-under talent and top 4 in 22-and-under talent.

The “treadmill of mediocrity” label also does not really fit. That term was created for teams that win enough games to stay out of the top of the draft, but not enough to seriously matter in the playoffs. The problem with those teams is that winning 40-something games hurts their own draft position and blocks them from adding high-end talent.

That does not apply the same way when a team does not control its own pick. If someone else owns or can swap your pick, losing more games does not help you. The incentive structure is completely different. From 24-26, the Rockets did not have control of their pick based on things that happened before Stone was GM. For 27 and 29, the Rockets likely won't have their pick because Stone will swap it for a better pick.

So calling the Rockets a treadmill team misses the context. They are not stuck because they are protecting their own lottery odds. They are trying to win while already having a young core, future picks from other teams, and no reason to bottom out for someone else’s benefit. Also, I'm not really sure the treadmill of mediocrity label can be used anymore as the NBA broke that term when they flattened the lottery odds.

You can criticize individual decisions, including specific drafts or veteran moves. But the overall resource allocation does not look like a treadmill team. It looks like a team that invested heavily in young players, added draft capital, and started winning before the young core fully matured.

 

So just making up new definition for mediocrity.... Doesn't really help your case when you have to make up new definitions to previously established words.

At any rate... the key phrase here is "as currently constructed". We didn't even get to see the currently constructed team due to a bad luck offseason injury to FVV and we still won 52 games in the most disappointing season in recent memory. With so much uncertainty, why are you assuming doomerism?

 

I dont understand all of this 'we fckd up by trading for KD when we should have kept rebuilding' mindset...
that ship had already sailed when we signed FVV and DB and had 52 wins the previous year...
We were already out of rebuild mode...
Now if u think we should have continued bringing along the young 'uns and disagree with the acceleration - ok, valid...
but we obviously were not continuing to tank...
right or wrong, this was the road we were going down before trading for KD...

Also, regarding the Nets picks... I dont think people appreciate the diff between how a team operates depending on whether or not they own their own picks... if a team owns their picks then they tank - and tank hard, taking bad contracts or injured players, etc... If they dont, they sign journeymen to short contracts and can typically field a middling team - esp with other teams actively tanking....

All of this stuff doesnt happen in a vacuum...

 

holy shitte, the excitement is palpable

 

The new mediocrity treadmill with these draft rules is being a perennial playoff team which is a perennial first round exit, and I honestly think that's where we're headed if we don't hit on a top 10 player / offensive engine of a real contender somehow (without giving up a ton of assets to get him), as well as solving the spacing issues the team currently has. We have enough good players to beat up on the bad teams and steal regular season games against the good teams with our hustle, but we're going to struggle to actually advance in the playoffs the way this team is built right now.

Yes, we do have extra picks / swap rights in 2027 and 2029. They might even be lotto picks. I guess it's something to hope on at least... if Stone doesn't keep kicking the can and trading for future picks in the name of "collecting assets". I also haven't completely written off a major breakout from one of our young players, but the odds are looking fairly slim of that by now.

The other thing to keep in mind is that it's about to get really expensive to keep this team together. Amen's extension, Tari's new contract (if we bring him back), Reed will be extension-eligible next offseason too. We're not looking at actual cap space any time soon, we'll just have to try to avoid the aprons and be able to duck in and out of the lux tax. Definitely hurts our flexibility.

 

The whole concept of the treadmill of mediocrity is that winning keeps a team from getting good picks even if you want to redefine it. The Rockets lost with the best of them Stone's 1st 3 years, and as such were not on the treadmill of mediocrity. The Rockets did not control their pick in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and as such were not on the treadmill of mediocrity even if you want to change the win total. The Rockets likely will not have their 27 pick either. The Rockets may end up on the treadmill of mediocrity in 27-28 season. Until the Rockets win more than 30 games in which they will use their draft pick, using the term against Stone is just flat out bias as the Rockets winning has not hurt their draft position one bit in any season that Stone has been GM.

On "kicking the can" .."collecting the assets"....those are phrases I typically associate with Presti and Luhnow. Those are phrases that describe GMs operating in exactly the opposite way of the treadmill of mediocrity. Stone tries to win games, the Rockets aren't contenders, think of the children. Stone doesn't spend resources on seasons that the Rockets likely won't win, Stone is just kicking the can down the road. What Stone is doing is trying to win without using many future resources (and without damaging picks like on a treadmill of mediocrity) until the team proves it is worth it (or a star drops into his lap because he's hoarded picks), but keep accumulating draft resources. The Rockets may have to do a soft/hard reset soon, but will have the picks such that we aren't doing 3 years of hell again.

On getting expensive, the team salaries are structured such that the vet contracts come off the books soon. The main issue I have regarding salaries is that Amen and Sengun might not be good enough for having salaries near 25% of the cap each such that the Rockets can't build a team when KD, FVV, Adams, other vets are off the team.

I think the Rockets are still in a pretty good position even if they have not lucked into a star yet.

 

Wanting to re-structure the roster to get better is not giving up. Putting the same Mediocre sh*t on the floor is giving up on developing your young core. KD dominating the ball with Ime’s blessing definitely had a negative impact on Amen and Sengun’s development. Bringing FVV back just adds to the reliance on veterans that are well past their prime and are no longer in a position to lead us to a championship. I’m not about blowing up the team, I’m about re-structuring to have a chance at balance. I’ve watched or listened to virtually every Rocket game since 1987. That’s not the fandom of a quitter, just not one who is content to rah-rah-rah his way to another first round exit.

 

They have to stay in that position though. They need to get Tari and Amen on good deals. They are role players and you can't afford to overpay them. This is now the aprons era - the good teams will use every advantage to manage their cap, including restricted free agency.

 

Thats the other downside with trying to build through the draft... first, u might get Kwame'd and then secondly, u often have guys that were high draft picks who are getting these fat extensions who havent really earned them - yet... First u gamble on picking the right guy, then u gamble that he will continue to improve... and ur tying up a lot of cap in a still unproven commodity based on (hate the word) potential.

Thats why I much prefer to trade draft capital for known commodities or at least guys that have shown real promise in actual NBA minutes... Harden, Brunson, etc... I know everyone is convinced that they're going to draft the next superstar and be set for years to come - but most often thats a pipe dream that leads nowhere... for every OKC there are a dozen Sac Kings... and I know folks arent impressed with Stones drafting or Ime's developmental strategy...

Im not saying that u abandon the draft altogether... it should be a tool to building your team - just not the whole ball of wax...

That said, Stone has to take some swings on guys that may be on verge of blowing up - like DM did on harden... Unfortunately, idk that he has the skills for such an evaluation - although Brooks was a good signing - i wish we had kept him...

 

You want true pain go be a kings fan. It could be -a lot- worse.

I agree things are a bit stationary in that we aren’t going to win a title with this team as is, but that’s literally 90 percent of the teams in the league.

finishing second and 5th in back to back years isn’t running into the ground.

I do think some changes need to be made, but it’s not easy.

I said it in a different post (doesn’t mean I’m right), but if we could find a stretch 5 that can at least be above average in rim protection and out Sengun at the 4, and add some shooting, then maybe you’ll see the push rockets fans have been waiting for (with or without Durant).

 

Well, we are having the conversation today, not last summer before FVV tore his ACL and a thousand other things happened, and not in some alternate future where a magical trade makes us a favorite to win a series over OKC, SAS, DEN, LAL, or MIN.

And today the Rockets vegas outlook is somewhere in the middle of the middle third of the league, and we’d be at least a heavy underdog to any of the above teams in the first round (and have almost zero chance to play anyone else, assuming we make it there at all).

I’m not sure how just quoting the present view of the market is doomer-ish?

 

I'm with u, man! Let's at least see if we can get a healthy season before throwing dirt on the team! lol

FVV and Adams were 25% of our cap... and we still won 52 games... and had a higher winning % post all-star than before...

If FVV, Adams and DFS arent the guys - then we pivot and spend the money wiser elsewhere... the rookie extensions are the concern... how much money are we going to spend on Amen before he develops a shot or dump into Reed before he's even shown true starter ability...?