Randle to the Nets, value of '27 Nets pick plummets

I vaguely remember cap space wearing No. 6 for the Heat and leading them to 2 NBA titles, brother.

 

I would usually say that is too far -- and we will not know for sure until we see the draft class play ....... but I look at this draft and I see that the Nets had their choice of Acuff, Flemings, Brown.

While I expect someone to emerge from next years class, the reality is that Acuff and Flemings are top 3 picks next year.

I would definitely trade the future pick for any of these guys.

 

The Sabonis comp is almost as apt as a Jokic comp. I'd say Sengun is a little closer to Sabonis than he is to Jokic, but he's not really close in talent level to either player.

Caveat: This assumes Sengun bounces back to pre-2026 form.

 

Wolves went from Towns to Randle to essentially nothing

horrific management

the offensive talent around Ant gets reduced every season

 

I would definitely have traded any one pick the Rockets have for that pick.

 

Right - but Stone isn't Riley and there is no Dwayne Wade to entice a LeBron James to play for the Rockets.

 

I would rather have the Nets pick than what the Rockets got dealing it --- but I will freely admit that stranger things have happened, maybe the picks turn out better than expected.

 

So the nets are getting prime lebron?

 

His is a negative value. They actually had to attach a higher pick to get rid of him

 

No.

Did the Heat use cap space as part of the sign and trade to acquire Lebron James? If yes, your statement earlier was wrong. If no, your answer to this question is wrong.

 

We are talking about reality. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE NETS AND NOW. I never said cap space never helped anyone. We are talking about now my guy. Who are they getting with that capspace???

 

The Nets pick is not what the Rockets would have gotten if they didn't do the deal. Sure, if the Nets would tank with the Rockets keeping their picks, that would probably have been worth keeping the picks to have the ping pong balls.

That said, I love the touch of adding the "I will freely admit that stranger things have happened, maybe the picks turn out better than expected" as it prevents actual results from proving you wrong, but you use actual results to anchor what the Rockets gave up (the Nets pick)..

 

you are saying the nets pick would not have been #6 when u can’t know that. The nets actually got unlucky with where their pick landed. Seems to me wven if u account for the nets winning more games it very easily could have landed at #6. Of course it could also have landed much later…or much earlier. That’s the point, you don’t win if you don’t play. Never trade out of a really good draft unless u are a sure fire contender, and even then. U don’t see okc trading out of the draft because they already have all the young talent in the world. Or the Spurs, who dipped into the draft at #20 to get potentially the highest defensive upside prospect.

 

Of course, I don't know if the pick would have been worse or not with absolute certainty. I was wrong to make a statement that implied I know with absolute certainty the Rockets' pick would not be the exact same pick when the intention was likely. I'm sorry for overstating my case.

One can not know with absolute certainty that under all situations one should never trade out of a really good draft unless you are a sure-fire contender.

 

Yeah, I agree Sengun is a better player than Sabonis but at this stage I'm not even talking about better player because my focus is around building great teams and the point of the discussion here is not where Sengun compares against guys like Randle, Sabonis, Jokic, etc. but rather whether bigs who get most of their shots from 2 pt range and aren't elite finishers can be integral parts of true contending teams. Those types of players have largely not been been capable of driving contending teams over the last 20 years.

Of that list above, Jokic is the only big above who both has legit range that defenses need to guard to the 3pt line AND shoots at a high level inside the arc and coincidentally his teams have mostly been in contention with Jokic as their primary. It's nothing against Sengun, Randle, Sabonis as players - its just a numbers game and the last two generations of NBA teams have taught us that teams who give most of their shots to perimeter players who are 3 level scorers tend to go farther that teams who hand those shots over to players who lack 3pt shooting UNLESS(and this is the important caveat), those players are ELITE inside the arc. Guys like Giannis are able to overcome the gravity of that rule because of how elite they are at making those shots - even the Jokic, SGA, and even KDs of the world can get away with taking a high volume inside the arc provided they do that at an elite level....but this is why guys like Sabonis, Randle, let's throw vintage Westbrook into the mix, and Sengun can be good players individually but not necessarily winning players if they are taking 12+ shots a game inside the arc and not finishing those at an elite level - and that includes FTs as well of which Sengun does a good job getting to the line, but has continued to struggle at shooting FTs at a high level.

THAT is the point with players of this archetype. You can carry your team on some nights as that player, you can even have strong 82 game seasons but when games tighten up in the playoffs, defenses who make sure those type of players end up taking the majority of shots will tend to win. The average NBA team takes 89 shots a game so let's say you take 25 shots and finish with a massive 30 pts - that would seem impressive on the surface but think about it - you are taking nearly 30% of all the possessions you would expect to get in the game and those possessions netted you 30 points but the average NBA team needed to score 120 pts to win last year, then you won't win(and the 6 assists he generates aren't enough to make up the difference, you still lose). This is why points per possession matters and why Sengun having a below average TS% means the more you get him the ball, the more you decrease your team's chances of winning. That's the problem with Sengun /Randle /Sabonis and why you can increase touches to guys like them to win but you can with guys like Giannis and Jokic.

 

I do think getting rid of Randle might be addition by subtraction in the starting lineup--Naz is just a better player IMO, whatever the box score stats might say. However, it will come at the expense of their bench, so it is still probably a net loss.

 

Archetype discussions depend on a lot of guys of the archetype and comparing guys of similar talent levels.

Sengun is a weird player in today's NBA, and does not play with teammates that fit him this past season, in my opinion. I heard similar things regarding archetype about Jokic, and Jokic won by being the best player in the game. If Sengun ended up on OKC, he would probably win a title. Sengun's problem is that he's on Houston, doesn't fit with the team, and bad teams typically undervalue defense and overvalue usage, such that it will be hard for him to end up on a great team.

I typically shy away players like Sengun because it is hard to get them/keep them at fair market value, because bad teams will overbid.

 

What we do know is that when the Nets don't have control of their pick then they use their assets to try and win more games and not tank, which the Randle example further highlights. Crying over that trade is silly knowing that.

 

Nothing is for certain, but I’d say the odds would be 90%+ of a worse pick than 6 had we not given them back their pick. Likely much worse. Like, outside lottery worse.

 

what’s “silly” is thinking the Nets can magically become a good team quickly. They were a 32 win team when Bridges was having that all star season. That was their ceiling. They didn’t even have much cap space until recently. They were not going to be good regardless of what incentive they had to win. And I suspect they were gonna make that Bridges trade anyway. Stone so obviously got played and didn’t fully press his advantage.

But u are right about something. There’s no point dwelling on it because it’s over. Stone traded those nets picks back to them and we gave up a chance to take a swing on cooper Flagg and AJ, etc. foolish as it was, it’s done. Stone traded a juicy grape for two rat turds, but it’s done.