I am not 100% certain of Lambert’s contract status. Spotrac says he has another year of arbitration. If that’s the case he will likely bet on himself and try to score a big contract if he stays good from here thru 2027. Either way I don’t think a $50M/5yr deal makes much sense. If he really is controlled thru 2027 I would say an extension of something like $30M/3yrs (to cover 2027-2029) might make sense for both sides; Astros get an affordable MoR for 2 add’l years and Lambert gets a payday with another crack at a 4-5 year contract if he stays good (he’d enter free agency at age 31).
You are probably right. Cots also has him with final year of arbitration in 2027. I was just thinking that with his career history he may not want to bet on himself. I have faith that if healthy he will be a 1-2 WAR SP the next several years. He may see a world where: He is average at best the rest of this season Gets bumped by Hunter, Spencer, Javier, Blanco, Wesneski, and Walter/Burrows/Imai/Teng next year and is suddenly a $4M per year long reliever. He is a SP without commitment. He could need TJS and not tendered next year. I am convinced he is good enough for a small AAV commitment. But is he willing to bet on himself? If not what is that level?
I would look to extend Lambert and pay him pretty good money over 4 yrs. This guy has really impressed me. Give me the Moniak trade and get Wade healthy.
Best case over the next 22 games: Diaz finds his bat. Wade comes back healthy and keeps hitting. Imai finds his mojo. Javier comes back and performs well. Abreu finds his mojo. Everybody else stays healthy and performs as they have this season. In that scenario Houston would really only need a LH CF. Options could be Duran, McCarthy, Lee, Abreu, and Moniak. Buxton would be a dark horse target. SS Pena DH Alvarez 1B Walker 3B Paredes CF TBD 2B Altuve RF Smith LF Wade C Diaz Bench: Allen, Vazquez, Meyers, Shewmake? SP: Brown, Imai, Javier, Arrighetti, Lambert, Pecko? RP: Hader, Abreu, King, De Los Santos, Okert, Pearson, Teng Mild questions about the playoff rotation but otherwise I really like that roster. OF on ESPN’s top 100 trade candidate list that might interest Houston: Buxton Suzuki Duran Moniak Nootbaar Larnach Robert McCarthy
I am worried with Wade's fast start and unexpectedly quick healing that they are going to just stand pat in the OF. I love Wade as a backup LF/1B and PH vs leverage RH RP. I don't like him starting everyday vs RHP (approx 70% of games) I would love to see Dana bring in a LF (or CF but there just aren't many options) who can bring some run production to the 5-7 spots in the lineup. Mickey Moniak, Lars Nootbar, J.J. Bleday, and Jake Bauers are all guys I think could be available and would be big upgrades. Bauers is a guy who hasn't been talked about a lot because he is having a huge season and the Brewers expect to challenge the Dodgers for the NL pennant. But he is a rental and not a QO candidate. The Brewers always try to get something for these guys. They also have Andrew Vaughn who has started 16 of the last 25 games at 1B. They have an everyday DH and Bauers is their 3rd LF option so moving him would not create a hole. They will want players who are close to MLB ready, if not already in the show. They love high ceiling, plus stuff pitching they can unlock, which they do very well. Miguel Ullola makes a lot of sense in this deal. Alonzo Tredwell is another guy with good stuff who appears to be stalled in the Astros system due to frequent injuries, but as the 2nd piece in a deal for a rental 1B/LF bat they may view him as a good risk. At the MLB level, they need run production at 3B. Zach Dezenzo has played a lot of 3B and has been passed over in the Astros organization. He isn't a strong defender but has enough potential there as the 3rd piece in this deal. Miguel Ullola, Alonzo Tredwell, and Zach Dezenzo for Jake Bauers. I think its a lot but won't hurt until Bauers is gone next year
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/yankees-trade-rumors-catcher-ryan-jeffers-twins.html Yankees get: SS Jeremy Pena C Yainer Diaz Astros get: P Elmer Rodirguez SS Dax Kilby P Ben Hess OF Spencer Jones That’s 4 of NY’s top 6 prospects (3 of whom are recent 1st rd picks), which includes a big league ready LH OF and SP. If Houston sells this would be a very good trade imho.
You may be right. I thought a lot about this. They traded Hader. They have players to fill in at all of his positions. I changed Whitcomb to Dezenzo, as he is more likely to actually help them on the MLB roster and may also be able to play 3B. And he is just better and more valuable and therefore more likely to get the deal done.
Holy **** I would kill for Buxton to be in our outfield. I know it next to impossible. How cool was Carlos with him? Maybe he can call Buxton and tell him to pull the " only accept a trade to Houston" deal. He would be awesome
Buxton would be huge. 2 years left at 15M and has WAR of 2.9 this season already. Who would get him probably gets last 2 years of him performing before totally surrendering his body to injuries. Might be 10 team fight to get him and if he waives NTC he picks only favorites to win WS. Our pitch would have to come from Correa because if Dana or Joe speaks to him Buxton will be only thinking how are these guys employed.
**** in 17 games he'd probably post more WAR than any of our outfielders could over a whole season. Hes played more than 17 games this season.
Astros get: CF Luis Robert Jr. RP Luke Weaver $30M ($10M 2026, $10M 2027, $10M 2028) Mets get: CF Jake Meyers OF Joseph Sullivan C Jason Schiavone RP Michael Knorr Astros get a controllable RH setup man and an upside OF play (with another year of control if he goes Carlos Beltran in the playoffs). Mets get an everyday CF and 3 decent 3rd tier prospects.
The Astros are within striking distance of the division lead. I will give the Astros credit for not giving up - as most teams would have. However, the Astros being so close has more to do with how poorly the Mariners have been this season with young guys and lots of depth. Astros also need to pass the A's and Rangers -- so it isn't a two-horse race. I expect someone in the division to make a statement in the trade market if the status quo continues in the standings. I would feel a lot more confident if Tatsuya started being a consistent #3 caliber pitcher. Arrighetti is getting some criticism, but he is just leveling out into the middle of the rotation starter that he is, and Lambert is similar as well. A solid rotation would go a long way to the Astros having a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Dana Brown privately said he wanted relief help and an outfield bat 2-3 weeks ago and then confirmed it publicly on the radio recently. Having said that -- I have heard the Astros are still talking to teams about starting pitchers and the Astros are listening on their own players as well. Why does Brown say one thing and do another? IDK, but this is the third straight year that the Astros have claimed they were not looking for starting pitching and have been very aggressive early looking for starting pitching. I don't see the Astros targeting #1-2 starters, but likely guys they can start in a playoff series or in the hopper to pitch in the playoffs.
As I keep saying ... my priority is an inning-eating MOR starter who gives the team a chance to win. Kikuchi part 2. All of those guys returning are lottery tickets at best and I would feel much more comfortable planning a few of them to be bullpen depth than a SP4/SP5. I'm also comfortable with the lineup as is, especially if Wade can return quickly. Quality SP depth is the key to the season.
I know its super risky but if the Astros really think Javier is healthy and Blanco and McCullers should be ready in 30-45 days with Wesneski less than a month behind them. . . Walter ready for 2027 Alexander and Gordon emergency options. Pecko could be MLB ready. St.Louis has stated they want SP at the deadline. Would Teng (or Burrows) bring back Nootbar?
Pecko probably has more trade value than Burrows or Teng so I’d assume teams will ask for him. And it makes more sense for Houston to trade somebody that isn’t yet on their depth chart. But yes I would think either of those guys could headline a Nootbaar trade, but opinions will vary greatly on unestablished pitching. I am thinking Houston has 2 groups of assets they can part with in trade without having a big short or long term impact: Young near-ready pitching: Pecko, Mayer, Hertzler, Ullola, Santa, Blubaugh, Burrows, Teng, McPherson, Gillis, Nezuh, Hicks, Knorr Young near-ready OF: Matthews, Loperfido, Cole, Sullivan, Dezenzo, Spence
Byron Buxton had played about 11+ MLB seasons, he has played 100+ games in 3 of them. You want this guy for the next 2+ years? Yall are making Moniak and Adell look better by the minute, and they suck.
The Astros simply don't have the assets to get an All Star with multiple years of control left. Moniak, Adell, and Nootbar are affordable and significantly better than anyone they have now. Playing Cam everyday may pay off in the future but the cost of that is that he is a liability at the plate now. Matthews may develop into a positive starter by getting 250+ PAs now but the cost of that is that he is a liability at the plate now. Meyers may play great CF defense but the tradeoff is that he is a liability at the plate and has lost speed and value on the bases as well. Byron Buxton or Mike Trout are not going to suddenly be Astros. The Astros can't outbid any other team for a star. But this team is going nowhere unless they improve the outfield that is currently historically bad. Dana needs to stop waiting and hoping for the young guys to "arrive" and/or balking at the prices teams are demanding. He needs to upgrade the outfield and has needed to for 3 seasons. And these guys - the Moniak's Adell's, and Nootbar's are the ones who should be in the Astros price range but still a BIG upgrade over what they have now. 120 may not be a huge improvement over 100. But its a huge improvement over 65
