Gonna be interesting to see how the Astros handle these pitchers coming back. Javier next week, Blanco by mid-July, McCullers by end of July, and Wesneski in August.
I know what I’m getting from two, Jav and Mcjr, more interested about Weneski’s return and Blanco is a dawg I’d get back in somewhere if he’s back.
Brown is awesome and I'm bought in on Lambert as a solid guy. However the rest of the rotation is a complete coin flip from game to game right now. Javier has put up great K numbers in his rehab starts, him coming back looking remotely like he used to would be huge. When we get a set of good starts the team obviously looks good. When one of them wets the bed not so much, and this offense isn't good enough to go out and win us many games without great pitching. I haven't really changed my opinion on this team, but the AL continues to be an absolute joke this season so 82-84 wins might get you a play in spot.
If this team truly wants to go for it, they need to get a real #2 at the deadline. I keep seeing we are interested in an OF bat and bullpen arm. While we could obviously use those as well, this team isn’t winning a damn thing with this rotation even if they do make the playoffs.
It's hard to say, Imai, Arrighetti, and Javier all have pretty high ceilings. And Burrows, Pecko, and Blanco all could be playoff caliber SP if everything clicks. Of course any team could stand to add a legit proven ToR SP, but given what the cost is likely to be I understand Houston devoting their resources to adding a bat instead.
By that logic, you could say Cam Smith and Brice Matthews both have high ceilings and Loperfido has the potential to be an average MLB OF if everything clicks. None of those guys are #2s on a true contender. Arrighetti is #3 at best and even that is being generous. Javier has been hurt and hasn't been good since 2022. Burrows has been awful, Pecko hasn't thrown a pitch in the MLB, and Blanco is coming off surgery. We've seen how everyone else other than JV has fared initially after returning from surgery. There's no way you can tell me that you'd bet on Imai to become a #2 the rest of the season and into the playoffs from what you've seen from him. Truthfully, I trust Lambert more than any of the guys you've named - that's saying something. Look who the Yankees can toss out against you in a playoff series - Fried/Cole/Schlitter/Rodon. Their #4 option is better than anything we have after Brown. I understand the cost for a #2 will be high but IMO it's not worth wasting any resources on a team that doesn't have a chance to win a WS and this team currently doesn't with how the rotation looks. Just don't agree with any half measure approach - either truly fix the team or do nothing and hope you get lucky. That being said, we'll probably be dumpster diving for an OF and bullpen arm so I'm sure we won't be sending anyone meaningful out.
Would be nice if Loperfido could hit RHP consistently. Maybe we can trade him for a guy like Jesus Sanchez. Who am I kidding, we know Crane won't sign off on extra salary unless he personally is excited by the guy.
I agree that you can say the same thing about the OF. I just think adding a proven ToR SP will be cost prohibitive relative to the cost of adding an OF. Houston doesn't have the ammo to add a good SP; it basically means giving up at least one (if not both) of Alvarez and Neyens, which to me is just a stupid idea. They can go and get a decent LH OF (Lee, Bleday, Duran, Moniak, Larnach) without giving up any of their lower level high ceiling prospects (and if they can't, they shouldn't make that move either). Now if your definition of a "proven ToR SP" is stretched to include popup rentals like Dustin May, that may make more sense.
To be fair, Jesus Sanchez has been so bad in the field that he has negative bWAR and 0.1 fWAR this season. That's not a fluke either - we all saw how much of a disaster he was out there last season. Salary dumping Dubon was much more egregious. He actually returns solid value compared to what he is making.
This will be Dana's 4th trade deadline as GM. We don't know the mandate or restrictions that ownership has imposed, but it's probably safe to assume the goals going into the season were to make the playoffs and stay under the CBT. Crane has shown a willingness to go above the CBT line for players he likes, so that's a wild card in this. I'm supposing the goals remain the same. So, to get an idea of maybe what the Astros might do, here's where they were sitting and what they did over the last deadlines 3 under Dana: 2023 - In 2nd place and just a 1/2 game out - finished tied with Texas but won the division on the tiebreaker. ALCS loss RHP Justin Verlander and cash from Mets for OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford RHP Kendall Graveman from White Sox for C Korey Lee 2024 - In 1st place by 3.5 games - won the division by 3.5 games. ALWC loss LHP Caleb Ferguson from Yankees for RHP Kelly Austin LHP Yusei Kikuchi from Blue Jays for RHP Jake Bloss, INF/OF Will Wagner, OF Joey Loperfido 2025 - In 1st place by 4.5 games - missed the playoffs SS Carlos Correa and cash from Twins for LHP Matt Mikulski OF Jesús Sánchez from Marlins for RHP Ryan Gusto INF Ramón Urías from Orioles for RHP Twine Palmer 2026 - (Just under 6 weeks out) 3 games out in 4th place. This season's CBT is $244m. This had the Astros at $246.5m to start the season and Spotrac currently has them at $239m. If there's about $6m in open salary, who are the Astros able to add? My guess is they'll target cheap bullpen arms and that ever-elusive left-handed outfielder. Dana will say something about getting Allen and Shewmake back from the IL are solid additions in the IF and bet that two of Blanco/Javier/McCullers/Wesneski/Walter will be good enough to compete. In reality, this team lacks two OF bats, a solid IF/util bat off the bench, and a reliable #2 SP.
He has a full no trade clause he has been vocal about not being willing to be traded. Of course that could change but he’s in control of whether he gets traded or not; he’s been in Minnesota for 11 years and never played for anyone else so there’s a chance he cares more about staying put than winning. But assuming he is willing to be traded, he has a lot of surplus value as a superstar level player with 2.5 seasons of very affordable control. Houston isn’t getting him without giving up at least one of Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens plus 3-4 other good young players. I would be shocked if Houston traded for Buxton.
If I was guessing, I would say an OF (Mickey Moniak would be my odds favorite, with Jarren Duran next in line) and a cheap RP they think is underrated. And never ever count out Houston trading for Justin Verlander.
Nobody will have the rotation the NYY have regardless if they make a trade or not. Thing is the best teams rarely win it all. If they get top shelf Hunter and no hit Imai they've got a chance. Lambert is solid and all these guys have to do is pitch 5-6 innings of great baseball and turn things over to the BP.
