The Rockets were 16-6 (72.7% win rate) this season when Amen Thompson made a three pointer

Statistically this leads to a p-value of 0.28, (two proportion z-test, to determine if the difference between two percentages is meaningful or pure noise) meaning that there is 28% chance that this variance is purely from coincidence.

 

What great coaching mind can solve this issue that no contending teams in the league have?

Thompson does operate from the perimeter. The rockets ran more plays for him in the latter part of the season and playoffs. A lot of times in the season he hesitated to shoot outside the paint but he shot more midrange in the playoffs 5/11 45%. 4 of those were dribble pullups. This may be a glimpse of things to come if he continues to grow that shot. He has to create for himself. He just needs to master the dribble pullup and get a 3 point shot to diversify his offense and keep defenders on their heels.

Click each invidual video on the bottom within this link to see his dribble pullup shots in the playoffs

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CF...&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game&sort=EVENT_TYPE

 

like castle. Knicks still had to run him off the line.

 

he is smaller than most 4’s. He isn’t overpowering Naz Reid, OG, Randle, Holmgren, Mobley etc. He can’t defend those guys in the post or paint either. Too much strength, weight, and length.

 

Front, deny, attack the handle, deal with it, or double.

If teams that currently outclass us and produce open shots against our defense want to switch to posting up our best defender, we should let them.

 

What?

This year he took 12 FG attempts per game. 6.1 of those were from beyond the arc.


His career 3FG% is 37.7% [this year 38.6%]

 

im kidding. I just meant body wise…. He should more inside vs pg mode. We don’t use him correctly.

 

Ayyy @Snow Villiers stfu

 

1) 28% is a lot
2) If one is hunting for stats to back up a POV, it is easy to find one if you look backward (vs predicting and looking forward). Just keep testing possibilities until randomness spits out a correlation that works
3) Even if there is a real correlation, it could easily run the other way as many posters have said (e.g., he shoots more freely in a blowout)

Backward-looking correlations are the most dangerous type of ‘statistics.’ Humans brains hate randomness, and retroactively applying order feels logical while being very easy to manipulate. There is a reason the scientific method insists on a testable hypothesis and forward-looking predictions vs a control group.

 

Amen learning to shoot would create a title window of 10 years. If you did a poll on what off season improvement this fanbase would want out of any player, it would win in a landslide.

 

Copium is a hell of a drug

 

He’ll never be a sniper but can get to Josh Okogie level in his late 20s.

 

I don't believe that. Shooting 30-33% is not going to change how teams defend him. 30-33% is Westbrook numbers - it didn't work for him, it won't change a thing for Amen.

They are still going to invite Amen to shoot those shots, and Amen taking a 3 on a possession is a win for the defense.

For teams to actually change how they defend him, he's going to have to get to 35% at the least - around league average.

 

38.5%?

That would be a miracle.

I don't know what you guys make these projections based off of .... Amen was bad in OTE, he's been bad with the Rockets. There has been little to no improvement in shooting.

 

Just low volume/ capable on open ones more than a set percentage.

I based it on the countless examples of other 22-23 year olds that were very bad and got better in their late 20s. And looked at guys like Okogie’s shooting stats from when they were same age. + my own eye test and superior knowledge.

Age is a much better indicator and method of comparison than years in or whatever your trying to use.

Honestly, using years in or this OTE thing just reads as being biased and trying to win an argument. Age is the better metric in every way.

 

I think this is a good post and I probably am just misunderstanding the exact nature of your question. I realize that he operated from the perimeter more but I guess I would say a couple things…

1. I want even more of it and I want it with four shooters on the floor.

2. I would like to give him a capable partner in the pick and roll that can also pick and pop.

3. I definitely want him to continue to focus on the pull-up. It should go hand-in-hand with his improvements at the free-throw line.

Durant was an awesome shot maker this year, but between him, Sengun, Adams, Capela they were just too many players clogging up the areas that we need to loosen up a little bit more. Not to say that they all have to clear out all the time.

I do think a more creative offensive coach could be helpful. Maybe even to the extent of allowing Sengun and Amen to co-exist but that functionality will be difficult with Durant, wanting to operate out of the mid range as well.