LOL.... @Space Ghost .... Supporting Putin's war of conquest and not Ukraine's ability to not be conquered.
Russia’s oil industry is being systematically destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Notably, Moscow is burning today. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98291g5rr1o Russia should capitulate.
Unfortunately I don’t think it’s likely until Putin is taken out of power and it’s hard to see that happening peacefully without some sort of coup. I think Putin will let all of Russia burn before he ever thinks about giving up power. Retreating in Ukraine is an existential threat to his power in his mind. All of those G7 leaders thinking naively they can just butter up Trump and he’ll be able to convince his handler to cut a deal with Ukraine are once again acting foolish. Trump has no power to tell Putin to do anything. It’s the other way around. I hope I’m wrong but history is pretty clear. These things almost always continue on until the tyrant is dead. … If Europe wants to get real they know what to do. Actually help Ukraine and Polish, Finland, and German troops that are most threatened need to send troops to Ukraine, get the Russians out of the Donbas, and create a demilitarized zone. Provide Ukriane with Patriot missiles to shoot down the missiles Putin is able to make every once in awhile. But Europe doesn’t want to do that because they are afraid of the politics. But it’s the only way to get peace in the short term. Otherwise it’s just gonna be this grind with Ukraine defending itself and taking hits itself occasionally over and over again for years.
I wonder which is considered a more epic failure? Russia invading Ukraine? America going to war with Iran?
The US had more to lose IMO, putting us on a trajectory of a sole superpower to a regional power or at best tied with China/EU. Russia is a regional power, but I think they'll stay that way as long as they have nukes and energy.
Europe has been sending tons of cash since Trump -Vance - Rubio & the rest of the Putinist b****es - they have kept Ukraine afloat financially Militarily - I disagree that European Troops do anything here other than serve as targets - the whole evolution of this war is basically to *avoid* having troops at the front which is a drone death zone. Drone warfare has managed to turn manpower into a weakness, I don't think people have fully grasped this yet If the Euros want the war to end they should give Ukraine more money to keep destroying Russian oil industry, drone by drone. Russia is the country now in a no win situation, just like the US in Iran. The longer they stay, the worse it gets You hate to see it, right @glynch ?
Historically, once a nation loses 1/3 of their troops, they sue for peace. The current estimate of Russian casualties (KIA + WIA) is about 1.4 million. Russia has not fully committed all of their men of fighting age to the war, so it is hard to say if they have hit the 1/3 mark. Russia may have hit the mark if one considers the number of men Russia is actually willing to commit. Some "experts" are saying that if the current rate of loses continue that Russia will come to the negotiation table this fall. Ukraine is saying that they expect to hit 50K KIAs per month this year. The current monthly KIA is outpacing that the number of new Russian recruits, so this is only going to get worse as the year goes on. All of these numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. There is a lot of copium on both sides. Having said that ... Russia in the near future is going to hit a demographic crisis. Their birth rate is not keeping up. The loss of young Russia men in the Ukraine War will only make this worse. Russia's economy after the last 4 years of sanctions is very week. Ukraine hitting the oil processing plants and export terminals has been a big economic hit on top of the sanctions. The Russian military complex has also struggled. They can no longer build larger naval warships. Their last generation tanks are not being sent to Ukraine for drone target practice. Russia after four years has lost a **** ton of military equipment: tanks, anti-aircraft, aircraft, helicopters, etc. It is an open question whether Russia could open a second front against Poland, Georgia or Armenia, since they might not have the capacity to do so. Can Russia really afford to keep fighting this war for another year? or more? We will see.
I can say pretty matter of fact they do not want any part of messing with Poland. Poland's military is considered one of the strongest in Europe and ranks 8th in NATO and 23rd globally according to the 2025 Global Firepower index. It has NATO's third-largest military, with 216,100 personnel, and is committing 4.7% of its GDP to defense spending by 2025 Additionally, Poland ranks 21st out of 145 countries in the Global Firepower review, indicating a strong military capability
I hate Russia invading Ukraine and I want Ukraine to succeed in its defense. But I also hate seeing this: https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3moka6ixxd22x
I've talked to guys at the VFW who served in Afghanistan with them and trained with them outside of wartime. They universally praised them as very serious, very capable, very professional soldiers. These guys absolutely do not f**k around: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GROM_Military_Unit
Quick question mate, what is your views on how long Ukraine will be able to hold out? IMO, its not a Russia vs Ukraine, its more a China + NK vs Europe + america's aid (more military on ukraines end and more economic support on Russia's). In all honesty, I feel like China's support for russia has a higher thresh hold as energy imports + commodity exports is what china excel at. China, despite what the media/experts say, has yet to fully aid russia militarily. Keeping in mind that russia has 4x the population of ukraine, and ukraine has already lost 160-200k in casualties, there are a limit to both euro and america's aid, its kind of interesting to see how long each side can hold out for.
Russia has more soldiers and more money. Russia had the second strongest military at the start of the Ukraine War. The Russians were strongly favored at the start of the war. Given the Russians advantages at the start, their strategy was to overwhelm the Ukrainians but not necessarily be smart. Until recently, the Russians have been able to gain ground month to month but at a very high cost in both blood and gold. Starting this year (4th year of the war), Ukraine via their drone attacks have gone from trading one casualty to Russia's three/four to much higher multiple ... closer to eight iirc. The Russian KIA to WIA ratio has also increased dramatically, since the Ukrainian drones have become more deadly. And as I mentioned earlier the Russian battlefield loses in soldiers have recently outstripped their ability to recruit. The current momentum is in Ukraine's favor. Ukraine has also been able to cut the supply lines to Crimea and to some of Russia's most extended troops (like in the Kinburn Spit). Russia is still favored though IMO. They will need to change their strategy to be smarter. It has been 4 years so far ... longer than WWI or WWII ... and could easily go on for more years. They have been slow to change their strategy, so it is an open question whether they can. I do not think that Russia will be able to win this war, if they do not change their ways. They may have to lose Crimea before this war becomes an existential threat and forces them to make dramatic changes. It may even be too late. My best guess is that there will be a truce within a year, with Russia maintaining some of the gains that they have made since 2022. The other most likely outcome is that Russia gets routed in the Donbas (two years from now) and sues for peace, trying to keep the 2014 gains. This happens if Russia fails to change their battlefield strategy and their frontline collapses.
This is a good write up. In retrospect I would not put Russia as the number two military. As we saw, they were a massive paper tiger with old or **** equipment, terrible logistics issues and poorly trained soldiers. As we’re seeing, keeping fresh recruits/meat going to the meat grinder is becoming a real issue for Russia. Drones have made a massive difference for Ukraine and I don’t know if you can really say that Russia is a clear favorite now. Ukraine has access to much more tech than Russia does, although China is the X factor in being able to supply both sides with drones. What it boils down to is a proxy war between Europe’s resources and Russia’s resources and to a lesser extent, North Korea and China’s. China is laughing all the way to the bank as both sides expend resources and weaken themselves, which make China stronger. I don’t know if there will be a truce. Ukraine has stated their goal is to regain everything Russia has taken since 2014 which includes Crimea. There’s no doubt that they’re watching Iran and how much leverage Iran has with simple drone warfare. The rules of war have changed significantly. Old powers are mired in a capitalist profit driven military complex and keep spending billions on 20th century war equipment. Meanwhile, the young desperate punks are upsetting the balance and winning big.
Moscow and the Putin regime getting a taste of what Putin's Russia has been doing to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv (as well as cities and towns all across democratic Ukraine), for 4 years.
