[2023 NFL Draft/1-2] C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Buck Turgidson · Jun 19, 2026 at 5:02 PM

jch1911 said: ↑

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Reports of Stroud's cliff falling have been greatly exaggerated. After the Texans extended fellow 2023 draftee Will Anderson Jr. with a top-of-market deal as soon as he was extension-eligible, eyes immediately turned to Stroud. Why haven't the Texans extended him? Do they doubt his long-term future as a starting quarterback? Would they explore moving him?

Anderson is one of the three best players at his position. He plays a premium position, has been largely healthy and is coming off a career year. Stroud is one of the 15 best players at his position. He plays a premium position and has been largely healthy ... but he's not coming off a career year. Unlike Anderson, who was always going to sign an extension at the top of the edge rusher market, Stroud won't ink a deal at Patrick Mahomes' $64 million APY. With a much larger range and a much bigger overall cost come more considerations for a contract's structure and timing.

I know I just said Stroud is not coming off a career year, and it's true that his rookie season was better. But not by much. Stroud's atrocious postseason run spoiled the national perspective on his talent, but by the numbers, his 2025 and 2023 seasons are fairly comparable in many key metrics -- save for explosive play rate.

Caleb Williams. He's playing the game on hard mode.

None of this neatly explains Stroud's total collapse in the playoffs, nor does it guarantee improvement. The Texans have added some help to their offensive line (Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith and Keylan Rutledge) and running backds room (David Montgomery), but they must prove they can grind out a good rushing attack before Stroud's burden will be lifted.

Even if that's achieved, Stroud will need a strong postseason performance to wash the taste of 2025's disaster class from everyone's mouth. But we don't need to act like we've never seen Stroud in the playoffs before. He has made the divisional round in three straight seasons. In his four postseason games prior to 2025, he averaged 0.02 EPA per dropback and a 43.4% success rate. He wasn't perfect, but he was just fine. To call him a snakebitten playoff choker is an easily disproven exaggeration.

Verdict: Blip

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ts-nosedives-trends-blips-smith-njigba-stroud
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Well, I guess I know who has me on the ignore list

jch1911 · Jun 19, 2026 at 5:11 PM

Buck Turgidson said: ↑

Well, I guess I know who has me on the ignore list
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nope... not yet,,,, just distracted

zeeshan2 · Jun 19, 2026 at 5:53 PM

The Stroud we all remember so fondly was a flamethrowing rookie passer in a Kyle Shanahan-inspired offense. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik put heavy personnel and condensed sets on the field to bluff run-action and force predictable coverages. Stroud saw base defense on 25.6% of his dropbacks as a rookie in 2023. That rate led the league and was why his explosive pass rate was so strong.

Once defenses got wise to the fact that Stroud was the primary danger to address in Houston, they changed how they played the team. Stroud saw much less base defense (17.7% of dropbacks) and a significant uptick in two-high shells (51.7% as a sophomore versus 45.7% as a rookie). Slowik struggled to find answers to the defensive shift, and he was replaced by Nick Caley, who has found more success in forcing base defense and single-high coverages for Stroud to attack.

But the running game is still a big issue in Houston's offense. Since Stroud entered the league, the Texans are 31st in rushing success rate and 31st in EPA per rush. He has played in an entirely unbalanced offense -- one asking the dropback game to bail out the designed running game, instead of using the modern method of a successful rushing attack to disguise and enhance the play-action passing game. Stroud has averaged 5.9 third-and-long dropbacks per game in the past two seasons, second only to Caleb Williams. He's playing the game on hard mode.
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thegary · Jun 19, 2026 at 7:31 PM

Have you guys heard that Stroud might not be terrible?

raining threes · Jun 20, 2026 at 12:13 AM

Verbatim said: ↑

Sad anyone here needs to use personal attacks. Just keep the personal stuff out please. CJ is both better and worse than just about everyone's expectations here. Bottom-line, new season, new CJ, (we hope) give the brother a chance. Hope is better than despair. Wouldn't it be great if he gets the most improve, MVP and SB MVP (well not likely as someone on the defense will probably get that one), unless.... H O P E
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Love your optimism

Hope it happens

Buck Turgidson · Jun 20, 2026 at 12:45 AM

jch1911 said: ↑

nope... not yet,,,, just distracted
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I posted that same article a while ago, guess you missed it.

I was just joking with you btw.

jch1911 · Jun 20, 2026 at 8:26 AM

Buck Turgidson said: ↑

I posted that same article a while ago, guess you missed it.

I was just joking with you btw.
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Likewise,,,, you old crank

Texanstradamus · Jun 20, 2026 at 5:44 PM

I will say playing at reliant in January would also help he has been much better at home than on the road. Hopefully he balances that out with better road play, but yea let’s get the 1 or 2 seed for once.

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