I am not 100% certain of Lambert’s contract status. Spotrac says he has another year of arbitration. If that’s the case he will likely bet on himself and try to score a big contract if he stays good from here thru 2027. Either way I don’t think a $50M/5yr deal makes much sense. If he really is controlled thru 2027 I would say an extension of something like $30M/3yrs (to cover 2027-2029) might make sense for both sides; Astros get an affordable MoR for 2 add’l years and Lambert gets a payday with another crack at a 4-5 year contract if he stays good (he’d enter free agency at age 31).
You are probably right. Cots also has him with final year of arbitration in 2027. I was just thinking that with his career history he may not want to bet on himself. I have faith that if healthy he will be a 1-2 WAR SP the next several years. He may see a world where: He is average at best the rest of this season Gets bumped by Hunter, Spencer, Javier, Blanco, Wesneski, and Walter/Burrows/Imai/Teng next year and is suddenly a $4M per year long reliever. He is a SP without commitment. He could need TJS and not tendered next year. I am convinced he is good enough for a small AAV commitment. But is he willing to bet on himself? If not what is that level?
I would look to extend Lambert and pay him pretty good money over 4 yrs. This guy has really impressed me. Give me the Moniak trade and get Wade healthy.
Best case over the next 22 games: Diaz finds his bat. Wade comes back healthy and keeps hitting. Imai finds his mojo. Javier comes back and performs well. Abreu finds his mojo. Everybody else stays healthy and performs as they have this season. In that scenario Houston would really only need a LH CF. Options could be Duran, McCarthy, Lee, Abreu, and Moniak. Buxton would be a dark horse target. SS Pena DH Alvarez 1B Walker 3B Paredes CF TBD 2B Altuve RF Smith LF Wade C Diaz Bench: Allen, Vazquez, Meyers, Shewmake? SP: Brown, Imai, Javier, Arrighetti, Lambert, Pecko? RP: Hader, Abreu, King, De Los Santos, Okert, Pearson, Teng Mild questions about the playoff rotation but otherwise I really like that roster. OF on ESPN’s top 100 trade candidate list that might interest Houston: Buxton Suzuki Duran Moniak Nootbaar Larnach Robert McCarthy
I am worried with Wade's fast start and unexpectedly quick healing that they are going to just stand pat in the OF. I love Wade as a backup LF/1B and PH vs leverage RH RP. I don't like him starting everyday vs RHP (approx 70% of games) I would love to see Dana bring in a LF (or CF but there just aren't many options) who can bring some run production to the 5-7 spots in the lineup. Mickey Moniak, Lars Nootbar, J.J. Bleday, and Jake Bauers are all guys I think could be available and would be big upgrades. Bauers is a guy who hasn't been talked about a lot because he is having a huge season and the Brewers expect to challenge the Dodgers for the NL pennant. But he is a rental and not a QO candidate. The Brewers always try to get something for these guys. They also have Andrew Vaughn who has started 16 of the last 25 games at 1B. They have an everyday DH and Bauers is their 3rd LF option so moving him would not create a hole. They will want players who are close to MLB ready, if not already in the show. They love high ceiling, plus stuff pitching they can unlock, which they do very well. Miguel Ullola makes a lot of sense in this deal. Alonzo Tredwell is another guy with good stuff who appears to be stalled in the Astros system due to frequent injuries, but as the 2nd piece in a deal for a rental 1B/LF bat they may view him as a good risk. At the MLB level, they need run production at 3B. Zach Dezenzo has played a lot of 3B and has been passed over in the Astros organization. He isn't a strong defender but has enough potential there as the 3rd piece in this deal. Miguel Ullola, Alonzo Tredwell, and Zach Dezenzo for Jake Bauers. I think its a lot but won't hurt until Bauers is gone next year
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/yankees-trade-rumors-catcher-ryan-jeffers-twins.html Yankees get: SS Jeremy Pena C Yainer Diaz Astros get: P Elmer Rodirguez SS Dax Kilby P Ben Hess OF Spencer Jones That’s 4 of NY’s top 6 prospects (3 of whom are recent 1st rd picks), which includes a big league ready LH OF and SP. If Houston sells this would be a very good trade imho.
You may be right. I thought a lot about this. They traded Hader. They have players to fill in at all of his positions. I changed Whitcomb to Dezenzo, as he is more likely to actually help them on the MLB roster and may also be able to play 3B. And he is just better and more valuable and therefore more likely to get the deal done.
