For the ignorant.... FVV has become the person to blame because Jalen Green wasn't him. We literally watched the offense bog down in 2024 and watched how FVV was too often having to create a shot with 5 seconds left on the clock. We literally watched the team struggle to do the basic offensive functions this season. We needed a PG who can run the offense when things get bogged down, keep turnovers low, and play defense. I truly don't understand the delusion of posters like @Aruba77 who incorrectly focus their anger at the wrong thing when the greater issue is Jalen Green, Reed, Jabari, Amen, and Sengun. Yall never bring up when FVV shot 39% on 8 3point attempts per game for his first season on the Rockets.....
fred simply hasn’t lived up to the promise of his contract. He’s had one good season and has been compensated over $110 million. I realize it’s not his fault he got hurt, but it’s time to move on and I’m looking forward to the day Stone and Ime will be forced to stop using him as their crutch and excuse for their own failings. He just hasn’t been worth the money we’ve paid him. His impact is magnified by the fact that we don’t have anyone else on the team that can dribble…which is more evidence that our GM has done a poor job. I don’t hate Fred. But he didn’t have a good 2nd season on max money. And we have to be sober about the caliber of player he’s gonna be coming off ACL surgery in his 30’s. The only positive is that his contract is expiring and we can finally move on after next season.
FVV was not worth his contract compared to typical league standards in his 2nd season. He was still a good player, and the Rockets situation was not a typical league situation (i.e., the money they spent on him didn't hurt the Rockets in 24-25). I have accepted there is a good chance FVV sucks next season. That said, I will continue to speak up any time someone that doesn't hate FVV wants to kick him for a good season in 24-25. I rarely am the one that brings up FVV.
Jerome is the far better offensive player .... His shooting alone sets him apart. He literally shot 50% or better from every range on the floor accept 3 where he was 43%. at the rim .576 3-10 .534 10-16 .560 16-3p .500 3p .433 On those 2 point shots, ~75% of them were unassisted. On 3p shots, ~60% were assisted. He was literally the most efficient pick and roll ball player in the entire league. At no distance is FVV's FG& higher, and that includes FT%. at the rim .533 3-10 .376 10-16 .446 16-3p .385 3p .356 Fred is fractionally better in assist to turnover rate 5.6/1.5 Vs 5.8/1.8. Of course, Fred is a little better defender pre injury - the difference isn't much to begin with .... but do you really expect him to look like his pre injury self?
FVV is "good" because he is two things: a D tier on-ball creator/orchestrator in the halfcourt who never ever turns it over, and a very good and versatile defender at the guard position. So with FVV back, would we win more games in the regular season and have a higher net rating? Yes. He'd bring down the turnover rate, especially on key possessions, and add back some lineup versatility. Will FVV fix what ails the Rockets, short term and long term? Absolutely not. Neither will Ty Jerome or Ryan Rollins. What ails the Rockets is that we have no A tier offensive creation, and no path to it. Just an old mid range iso scorer who can no longer dribble + complementary players/prospects. It's why our halfcourt offense has sucked with and without FVV. With and without KD. With and without four shooters spacing the floor.
I can buy the offense argument. I can also buy that there is a real chance FVV is not the same guy post-injury. But I do not buy that the defensive gap was small pre-injury. FVV was not some night-to-night defensive star, but his value was that he could survive weird matchups. Against Golden State, the Warriors had to bench most of their frontcourt besides Draymond to try to force Sengun into actions instead of letting Houston put FVV on Draymond. That mattered. Jerome is not Jalen Green or Reed Sheppard defensively, but he is still nowhere near FVV in that kind of matchup. FVV could switch with Amen, Brooks, Tari, and Jabari because he could hold up briefly against bigger players without immediately collapsing the possession. That let Houston keep its best point-of-attack defenders on the ball and still switch a lot behind the play. If Jerome gets switched onto a real big, that big is going to look at him like lunch. He has height, but he does not have FVV’s strength, base, hands, or low-man leverage. That changes what kind of defensive scheme you can run.
I will take an A tier star but Jabari Smith Jr stands out as the 4 year starter common denominator bad fit as much Josh Giddey did for the up and coming OKC team. The way we view the point guard position as a singular entity and argue Fred Van Vleet or Ty Jerome is part of the problem. There’s a big difference in B tier creation out 4 guys vs B tier creation out of everyone on the court. The trickle down in matchups and what we train every day. We have no idea what happens when you add a 5th B tier creator like Ty Jerome to FVV, Amen, KD, and Sengun. I think that simple change would surprise people.
It would change nothing. We would still be a bad halfcourt offensive team. You’re not going to win a formula 1 championship when most of the other teams have a better engine than you. A contender-level halfcourt offense doesn’t require us getting a new 4th best offensive player; it requires getting a new best offensive player.
Almost all formula 1 championship half court engines are 27 year olds that weren’t championship engines when they were 22. We shouldn’t be over looking 4th best offensive players right after getting smoked by Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard.
I wonder if we could SNT Eason plus give Brooklyn’s 2027 pick back for this pick and get acuff or flemmings
Ty Jerome is already 28 lol. If the idea is acquiring young bets who have some possibility of being A tier half court engines in the future, I am 1,000% in favor of that. Ty Jerome isn't that prospect, and for different reasons I don't think Sengun, Amen, Reed, or Ryan Rollins are either. They either don't have the on-ball juice or don't have the touch; although tbf those are more my opinions than fact. We didn't lose to the Lakers because their offense was good. Their offense was bad. We lost to the Lakers because our offense was even worse.
I’m more speaking to the system, it’s so far from optimal it’s hard to say anything for sure. We could easily give Sengun multiple guards that can run a PnR. We could stop making Amen the only POA defender and try him out as the 4, weak side rim protector in rebounding position with a faster team that can get up the court. Maybe he’ll surprise us. The 2 guards in both PG/SG slots sets Reed up for lots of minutes and it lets us work on a Knicks type Brunson hiding defense with the 3 good defenders in the middle (OG, Bridges, Hart) Jabari’s height isn’t helping anybody but Jabari on his 10 shots a game.
I'm getting the sense that Philon might slip and he might be a major value play. I don't mind a small set back to let our team grow more organically since we do still have good picks next year. If we can manufacture something around KD to get Philon I'd be down. Maybe with Milwaukee.
I do feel like at some level you have to take bets on guys where the odds are low--as much as I'd love to get somebody like this, it's going to be very difficult to acquire a VJ Edgecombe or whatever other guy was a consensus elite prospect and is still on his rookie contract. I'd agree Ty Jerome will almost certainly not become a star at age 28, although he could still potentially be a good value depending on what the actual price is to acquire him. With Rollins, the odds are slim but he is only 23, so you can at least dream on a Brunson-like rise to stardom, as unlikely as it may be.
Correct. The Rockets aren't going to be able to put all their assets in safe players and win a championship. The Rockets are unlikely to have good odds of winning a title soon. Either put the assets in the years the Rockets will have the best teams, or push win-now assets to the future (not just win-now assets you don't like). We can argue on what types of bets the Rockets should make. Personally, I think the Rockets are likely to have most of their salary tied up in young core, draft picks pretty soon, or the people acquired in trades for the young core. As such, finding a young player that the Rockets would keep would need to hit like a star. I don't see Rollins having Brunson-like upside...though I really wanted Brunson when he was in Dallas. Odds are if the Rockets spend assets on a floor general, it will be about value now with the option to trade the player later (though likely lose some asset value in multiple transactions).
IMO there is some status quo bias baked in here. Which is usually appropriate in the NBA, but not for us, now. The current version of the Rockets ("young core" + KD + Ime + Stone) has failed embarrassingly in two tries when it matters, and there's no non-longshot path that changes the expectation of the same fate next time. There's no more chances after that. This era is already over, and they know it. It just may take a little time to play out the string. So no, I don't think value now is the focus, or that the previous "young core" plays into the calculus at all really. There's maximum 2 players/coaches/execs who are favorites to still be with this organization in a couple years. The rest are default path gone. Any bets we make are in the context of the next Rockets era, not the previous unsuccessful one.
