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Cam Smith: The Aircraft Carrier

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Htown Legend, Feb 25, 2025.

  1. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Cole?
     
  2. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    He's definitely a natural in the outfield. Crazy fast runner with a crazy strong arm and good instincts. He will only get better.

    I'm still crazy optimistic about Cam. If he ever figures out how to lift the ball consistently, he will get MVP votes.
     
    raining threes and 13 in 33 like this.
  3. Buck Turgidson

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    Why not play him in CF then?

    Why make 2 positions worse?

    I don't see Cam with a long-term future in CF so I'm totally ok with him continuing to be a badass in right.
     
    ROCKSS and raining threes like this.
  4. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Centerfield has more defensive impact and you put your best fielders there so they get more opportunities.
     
  5. Buck Turgidson

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    snowconeman22 likes this.
  6. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    If we didn't already have a gold glover there, I would say why not. LOL.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  7. raining threes

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    In the offseason trade for a RF and get Smith CF reps in ST if they just have to make this move.
     
  8. vince

    vince Member

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    Well hopefully Cam didn’t come in as a finished product. If you look at his Slugging percentage, OPS, his batting average, they actually mirror last years Cam Smith…. Even the strikeouts are on the exact same pace as last year. Last year he has 440 AB, this season he currently has 220 AB.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca07.shtml
     
    raining threes likes this.
  9. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Nah. He's 23 years old and his bat can and probably will improve. Look at Pena. Other than his hot streak during his rookie season, his bat was trash for few seasons and then it got better. Cam has more talent at the plate. He just has one pretty big flaw in that he hits over the ball way too much.
     
  10. Rock Block

    Rock Block Sorta here sometimes
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    Yep, and even though his numbers are close to the same as last years it appears he’s leveling out in his ABs. He starting to finally get the ball to other parts of the field.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  11. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    I rather he strictly become a pull hitter and get the ball in the air. His bat speed is about the same as Kyle Schwarber.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    For Astros cornerstone pieces since 2017, here's how long it took them to post a good season (3+ war, 110+ wRC+):

    Altuve: Age 24, 4th season (2014)
    Springer: Age 24, 1st season (2014)
    Correa: Age 20, 1st season (2015)
    Bregman: Age 23, 2nd season (2017)
    (Marwin: Age 28, 6th season (2017))
    Alvarez: Age 22, 1st season (2019)
    (Gurriel: Age 35, 4th season (2019))
    Tucker: Age 24, 4th season (2021)
    (McCormick: Age 27, 3rd season (2023))
    (Diaz: Age 25, 3rd season (2024))
    Pena: Age 27, 4th season (2025)

    Based on that sample, I'd expect Smith to start really shining sometime between August 2026 and May 2028, most likely earlier in that timeline than later. They were stupid to rush him and burn his service time during his first full season as a pro. He should be in the middle of a ROY run this season poised to be a superstar starting next year.
     
    #972 Snake Diggit, Jun 9, 2026 at 2:32 PM
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2026 at 2:44 PM
    IdStrosfan and snowconeman22 like this.
  13. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    I wonder why they made that decision, surely the astros front office wouldn't let SPRING TRAINING results dictate if they thought he was ready?

    Anyways , he was hot early last year , but maybe they thought if he's up he's up . And so didn't send him down.

    He seems to be adjusting in some ways and his defense is objectively very valuable.

    I think he's a very good athlete and I'm more confident hes not going to get work down as the season goes on . Espada can also work on giving him a day off here and there .

    Expose to MLB pitching is a crucial step in any player making it to the show long term . Questions exist about if you call a player up too early or too late . For whatever reason or beliefs , Dana Brown has been aggressive with Matthews and smith .

    Both guys played a key role and made winning plays for us yesterday.

    Also , in relation to your post and metrics . Smith (assuming his offense stays the same) is on pace for 2 to 2.5 war . I believe I'm correct as he generally has about 1 right now .

    Anywho , if he even gets to 100 wrc+ , he should be a 3 war player .

    I think his power is up a bit this year , even with his slg percent being the same .

    Honestly, if you look at his baseball savant on a surface level it's everything you want to see.

    Barrels indisputably up . Probably due to that exit velocity up . Max exit velocity up . K rate stable . BB slightly up . The much talked about launch angle up . He's making improvements in every leading indicator.

    If he never produces better than .230 batting average and .670 (heyyo) ops , id be shocked.

    My bet is he's hitting .250 and .750 ops by the end of the year . At least .

    Here's the next step and will actually determine how high the ceiling is . Last year , cam hit .260 and slugged .350 vs fastballs. This year , he's hitting .270 and slugging .430 . Whiffing less . All the good stuff . He's gotten much better at hitting fastballs imo . Now , that means he's going to get more off speed (this year so far he's getting everything at the same ratio ) if he keeps getting better at hitting FB and the league adjusts.

    At that point he will be tested on his eye and discipline. Which , I think look pretty good for a 23 year old.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  14. phasors28

    phasors28 Member

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    Cam is a .280 hitter on the road with an OPS around 780 this year
     

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