Call me crazy but Dana has actually done alright with his trades. The Kyle Tucker trade was a win The Teng trade was a win The Kicuchi (sp?) trade was a win The Jesus Sánchez trade was well received and only had a small price of Brito The Burrows trade was worth the risk considering but looks to be a miss The only prospect I wish was held onto was Ryan Clifford in the Verlander trade who is 22 at AAA and hits with power
So far he’s won every trade he’s made as Astros GM. The Burrows trade could bite him if Brito pans out. Tucker for Paredes, Wesneski, and Smith (Tucker is in LA and Paredes and Smith are core players) Loperfido, Wagner, and Bloss for Kikuchi (Bloss blew out his arm and the other 2 are with other teams) Villarroel for Teng (Villarroel is middling in High A and has no defensive value) Jaworksy and Valencia for Sanchez (Both doing terrible in High A) Sanchez for Loperfido (Sanchez has 0.2 fwar this year) Melton and Brito for Burrows (Melton 40% k rate in AAA, Brito showing well repeating High A)
I would go massive rebuild and attach money all over the place to guys as well to bring in even more prospects and hope that by 2027 I’m already at 2014 or 2015 on the development curve so, I’m not saying you are wrong- but you have way more certainty than is warranted that this team has no chance of competing. the league is ass, Hunter Brown is cy young qualify, the rest of the staff seems competent, Josh Hader is back, Yordan Alvarez is a God, the IF is plenty good enough and an OF or two in their walk year isn’t all that expensive. I’m not betting it goes down that way, but you are giving it like no chance and that’s just not true imo.
Isn’t Brito a combination of hobbit and elf? Lien 4’7” or something? I will bet against longterm stud career. I think we likely sold high on him.
If you ignore the 8 game losing streak where our pets heads were legitimately falling off we are 30-28. this still feels like a 92 win team to me. What’s done is done but if I’m right we win like 85 or 86 and probably make the playoffs in a weak ass league with a real chance to win a pennant.
I just everyone to be relatively healthy and see what we have. If they are legitimately good, then winning the division shouldn't be that hard. If we catch Seattle by the trade deadline, I see Crane being very aggressive to get an outfield bat and a playoff caliber pitcher.
Hader back, tuve back, Brown back next week, and maybe Javier too - Imai pitching well, Teng and Arrighetti pitching well, Lambert pitching well.....I dunno, feel something brewing. DD
Extensions I would offer: Christian Vazquez $10M/2yr (2027-2028) Isaac Paredes $70M/4yrs (2027-2030) Cam Smith $130M/6yrs (2027-2032) Kevin Alvarez $55M/12yrs (2027-2038) Yordan Alvarez $220M/6yrs (2029-2034) Enyel De Los Santos $8M/2yrs (2027-2028)
I went to get comfort from 2011 Cardinals surge from August 10th on (Braves helping choking) and realised they were 62-55 doing "horribly" before turning it around late. So we can afford to suck until August 10 and just tread water going 32-19 and then start the real comeback. Sounds realistic . Ofcourse whole different thing today and AL being dogs**t again. Lot of great AB's yesterday. Hope to see those in tight games too and not just in relaxed fun blowout. Wade guy had great game. If he keeps it up, hard to figure position for him. He is 1B and s**t at that and we already have 2 DH's and Walker might be more fresh getting to DH sometimes. Still thinking we could make out like bandits this trade deadline with especially Pena & Brown. So many teams in it and thinking short term because CBA. Have a bad feeling about health, we are not extending and getting only 1 Cam like high prospect not tested lottery ticket much later would feel lost opportunity. If we would be buying we won't be taking much salary so trading stars for lucky overpay for them might look like a"buy" in weird way. As much as Tucker sucked in Chigago we might not be getting that package again from 1y rental and it also took Paredes sucking terribly to have him included. Let's rip a 12 game win streak here and make it interesting. Would be great time for Burrows shove and hopefully we are not seeing Abreu tonight. Would have been great spot to use him yesterday but we burned Bluballs and Santa so Abreu might be on menu if Burrows won't last like 6.
The other ones are all reasonable, but this one strikes me as crazy. This is a guy we still don't have a sense of whether he'll be any good. Kyle Tucker earned $40MM before free agency, so that seems like Smith's upside. More likely, he's going to make $20-$30MM. So you're basically giving him a 2 year extension for $100MM - 4 years from now when you have no idea how good the team will be or what it's needs will be. That seems like a bad use of resources - there's a lot more downside for the Astros in that extension than there is upside. For that $100MM, there's a good chance you could get an known very good player that fits the needs of your team at the time.
You are probably right but one consideration I factored in is that the players are lobbying for earlier arbitration and it’s possible the next CBA could also grant free agency earlier; both of those outcomes would make that deal more team friendly. A salary floor will likely raise the price of 2nd tier free agents (although admittedly a cap would likely lower the prices for top tier free agents, and a potential franchise tag would make extensions less valuable). I figure Smith is a $15M/yr player in free agency as his absolute floor as a player in his 20s with elite RF defense and a viable bat. Even at 28 teams will be willing to bet on a late career breakout if he’s still posting elite bat speed and exit velo. But maybe something like $90M/5yrs with 2 $40M team options is more reasonable. Not that I would expect Smith to accept either way.
We have to get rid of Burrows, he just SUCKS - not a starter, maybe a long reliever, but we are losing every time he pitches, and it isn't close.... DD
