Neyens/Alvarez and Huezo are the three I hear the people with the Astros talk about. Huezo less so - but Alvarez is the guy they say other scouts on other teams praise and Neyens is the one always brought up by the Astros.
Ochoa is an interesting one. Without any info, he may be playing first due to roster construction. Fayetteville has Alvarez and Huezo so it makes sense that they are being prioritized for development. The 3rd OF spot is a revolving door with Kenni Gomez getting about 1/2 the time, and then Sierra (age 20) and Wakefield (2025 pick) both putting up solid starts to the season with ~900 OPS. Gomez is going the wrong direction -- he got downgraded a level and is putting up an awful season. Ochoa is currently listed at 6-4, 230... and he's 14 for 15 on steals in 20 games. With his arm and athleticism, I would have wondered about 3rd base for him, but I guess that's not a great option with Neyens over there.
Too early to definitively say whose stock is truly up or down at this point, but I'll say Jason Schiavone now has my attention. 9 home runs in a month tends to have that effect. Hope he can continue doing this true outcome.
Ochoa is a physical specimen. He wasn’t lighting the world on fire, but was progressing before his freak accident… now he is playing catch up. He really needs to have a solid year and earn a promotion at the end of the to salvage his future. It’s a sad situation but the reality.
Neyens has flashed an extremely high ceiling and tool level. He will still have to perform but good numbers from him will carry more weight than a less measurable player.
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's Astros Top 30 Prospects: May 2026 Update Rank Pos Name (Preseason Rank) Grade: Note OF Kevin Alvarez (2) 55: Mediocre power and lack of walks are 2 things easily improved with age and experience. Excellent start and on track to be a firm Top 100 prospect by end of season. 3B Xavier Neyens (3) 55: Confirming his 70+ grade power and walking a ton; his called strike rate is high which is driving his 36.2% k rate. In a previous post I comped him to Joey Gallo, but Gallo had a 39% swinging strike rate as a 19 year old in A ball, whereas Neyens is just 10%. Neyens is perhaps being a bit too passive looking for his pitch but that's much more encouraging and correctable. It's hard to project a kid with a 36% k rate to be a superstar but the potential is certainly there. He should be a firm Top 100 prospect. P Ethan Pecko (10) 50: Healthy and looking pretty good. 4-5 AAA starts from being ready for a callup. Rule 5 eligible this fall so he's likely to see MLB time this year. P Bryce Mayer (9) 50: 16 k/9. A few more good starts and he should get bumped up to AAA. Not outside the realm of possibility for him to reach the majors this season, but also positioning himself to be a top trade chip if Houston buys at the deadline. P Cole Hertzler (14) 45+: Walks are a little high but he looks really good P Miguel Ullola (8) 45+: 6 walks per nine is not gonna cut it. But he's still only 24. Houston can afford to be patient because the ceiling is so high. C Walker Janek (4) 45+: Stock down. 36% k rate with no power. Might just be adjusting to AA but he had a bad April. OF Zach Cole (7) 45+: Been hurt but it wasn't serious so no real change here. OF Ethan Frey (5) 45+: 28% k rate and no power, so his stock is down. Worth remembering its his first year in pro ball. C/1B Will Bush (20) 45+: Cooled off last week but a great April, looking like a patient power bat who will strike out too much to be an everyday C but could be a premium bench player. Stock up as much as any hitter in the system. OF Joseph Sullivan (11) 45+: Solid production but 29% k rate in AA limits the projection. Unless something changes he is a fringey everyday OF or good 4th OF. P Ryan Forcucci (12) 45+: Disastrous results so far but he is apparently healthy, which is the main thing for now. Going to require inordinate patience. OF Anthony Huezo (15) 45+: 34% k rate is very limiting but power/speed/defense gives him floor and ceiling. Only 20 years old. IF Albert Fermin (18) 45: Top 30 int'l signing, will take a couple years before we know what he is. C Jase Mitchell (16) 45: Betting on Dana Brown; mildly disappointed he wasn't assigned to Fayetteville but his position is working against him P Alimber Santa (HM) 45: 11.4 k/9 against 2.7 bb/9 in AAA as a 23 year old will play. Legit leverage RP prospect and should get a chance in Houston at some point this season; already Rule 5 eligible so he's playing his way onto the roster. Stock up. P Jackson Nezuh (21) 45: Pretty middling results in the early going in AA. P Brandon McPherson (HM) 45: Age keeps him under the radar but he's pitching really well for Corpus. Potential BoR SP. P James Hicks (22) 45: Very middling numbers in AA so far. P Javier Perez (27) 40+: Will need to get to AA before we'll be able to change his grade to any degree. IF Nick Monistere (30) 40+: Hitting well in A ball but we won't know anything until AA. C/1B Jason Schiavone (HM) 40+: Showing massive power and tons of walk in High A but k rate concerns are there and we won't get a firm picture until he gets up to AA. P Alonzo Tredwell (13) 40+: Hurt again. Stock way down. Hanging on by a thread. P Nick Potter (25) 40+: Not getting as many k's as you'd expect given his stuff but his walk rate is also a lot lower than expected, overall a decent start and he has massive ceiling. P Brett Gillis (HM) 40+: Looked like a breakout guy but has been a mixed bag. Still, he's on the radar. P Gabel Pentecost (26) 40+: Decent start but not dominant and we won't know anything until AA. IF Sami Manzueta (HM) 40+: Will get another year in the DSL but I'm very high on him. 2B/OF Yamal Encarnacion (HM) 40+: Stock up. He's showing a bit of power and already had tremendous speed. He also looks like he can probably be a good defensive player at both 2B and LF and potentially CF. One of very few hitters in Houston's system with a plus contact tool. Only 22; keep an eye on him. OF Tyler Whitaker (HM) 40+: New life! His 27% k rate isn't going to project him as an everyday big leaguer but it's a great improvement over his performance in the lower levels. Could be evidence of patience and development focus paying off. 22% bb rate. One of two things will happen, he will either start hitting for power and his stock will go up very quickly, or he'll go back to striking out and he'll be released. P Jagger Beck (HM) 40+: Teenage pitchers who can hold their own in full season ball have a good track record and velo won't be a problem for him. Stock up and could skyrocket over this season. Graduated: 2B/OF Brice Matthews (1), P AJ Blubaugh (6) Fell off: OF Lucas Spence (17), OF Caden Powell (19), OF Luis Baez (23), P Hudson Leach (24), P Parker Smith (28), P Ramsey David (29) Other grade 40+, stock up: C: Collin Price, Carlos Cauro IF: Pascanel Ferreras, Alberto Hernandez, Alejandro Nunez, Max Holy, Randy Arias, Anderson Areinamo, Camilo Diaz, German Ramirez,Hector Salas, Trevor Austin, Landon Arroyos, Juan Rojas, Narbe Cruz OF: Justin Thomas, Cesar Hernandez, Anthony Millan, Nehomar Ochoa, Juan Sierra, James Nelson, Evan Wagner P: Raimy Rodriguez, Julio Rodriguez, Joey Mancini, Jose Varela, Kellan Oakes, Alex Santos II, Nic Swanson, Josh Hendrickson, Derek True, Leomar Rosario, Ryan Verdugo, Dylan Howard, Trey Dombroski Other grade 40+, stock down: OF: Lucas Spence, Caden Powell, Luis Baez, Kenni Gomez, Luis Rives P: Hudson Leach, Michael Knorr, Jose Fleury, Andrew Taylor, Parker Smith, Ramsey David Honorable Mention: C: Alexi Quiroz IF: Jeron Williams, Sandro Pereira, Santiago Martinez OF: Elijah Farley, DJ Newman, Roiner Quintana, Ariel Lebron, Imanol Feliz, Jack Valbrune, Amauri Ramirez P: All of them Not a great month in the system. Highlights are the trajectory of Neyens and Alvarez. Lowlights are Frey and Janek. Breakouts are Bush, Schiavone, Encarnacion, Whitaker, Thomas, Sierra, and Wakefield. Disappointments are Baez, Powell, and Gomez. Too early to make rash judgements of any pitchers who aren't hurt.
This thread is 30-something pages long. Kiley McDaniel is 1 of 2 guys at ESPN that I'm aware are good at their jobs (I'm sure they have more, but hard to shift through the mess). As such, a lot of people.
IFs Max Holy and Alberto Hernandez were promoted to Corpus from Asheville. Hernandez has only appeared in 7 games for Asheville this year and has spent the last couple of weeks on the development list. Holy was cited as someone who could break out by the development team, and he has somewhat. He's been a bit streaky (currently 0-9 over his last three games, but with 5 walks), but has continued to show solid on-base skills.
Very interesting. Alberto Hernandez is a pretty high ceiling prospect and has a reputation as a very good defensive player (Dana Brown mentioned his defense a couple of springs ago), but he has not developed much power and he played more 2B than SS last year. Fangraphs had him as the #3 prospect in the system in 2023. It will be interesting to see if he plays, or if he is just temporary roster filler. Holy is almost certainly going to play a lot at SS for Corpus because he is favored by the farm director. He has walked as much as he's struck out and has 15 steals in only 20 games. His defense has also gotten good reviews. So that's the foundation of a really good prospect. But he has hit for almost zero power and has consistently posted a high swinging strike rate. The power flaw is unlikely to get fixed but the swinging strike rate might just be a product of a good approach in the lower minors, since a lot of those pitchers can't throw strikes consistently. So its possible as he moves up that his k rate will go down (as will his bb rate). 23 year old undrafted prospects are very limited in what you can tell by performance in the lower minors. But he has a big opportunity now to raise his projection significantly.
Walker Janek was placed on the IL, which to me is a good sign since it means his poor numbers could be because he’s been playing hurt. Wow. Xavier Neyens hit another HR In the first inning of tonight’s game. That’s 6 in just 21 games. He might end up hitting 40 HR this year.
At the rate the MLB squad is dropping, Neyens might be in Houston by August 1. Nehomar Ochoa (4), Kevin Alvarez (3), and Juan Sierra (4) have also homered for Fayetteville.
His FA pitching signings this season were awful. The reason Hunter and Hader are injured do to misuse by Dana's manager hire Espada. Yeah Dana should be feeling the heat. He cant put together a pitching staff to save his life. Imai is getting lit up on his rehab, what makes you think he can comeback and win say 10-13 games and give the team 150 quality innings?
Three pitchers combined to throw a shutout in Fayetteville’s 6-0 win over Wilson. Ryan Verdugo: 5 IP, 2 BB, 5 K Jose Varela: 1-2-3 6th Jagger Beck: 3 IP, 2 H, BB, 5 K
Good news: Imai, Hader, and Pearson all had rehab appearances for Sugar Land tonight striking out 6 and giving up only 2 hits in 4.2 innings. Bad news: they also walked 9
Neyens might turn into a Home Run draft pick for Dana Brown. ETA: If Neyens (age 19) is a quick riser and plays well in the MLB at a young age (or in AA by the end of this season), Dana Brown's job security looks a lot brighter.
Except for Peter Lambert, right? Dana Brown also brought in Kai-Wei Teng this offseason by trade. It does hurt that Tatsuya Imai has struggled, but let us see what is what by end of the season.
MLB pitchers get hurt all of the time. It is not just with the Astros. FWIW Peter Lambert threw 104 pitches last night. Should we call for Dana/Joe's head now? Or do we wait to see if any injuries follow?
