Amen Thompson is the Rockets' REAL franchise player

He has improved a LOT at getting to the line this season. He'll get there even more often if he steps up the aggression. Getting to the line is what defines the offensive impact for stars like SGA, Luka, Brown. None of those guys came into the league as great 3P shooters (although granted still a lot better than Amen). But they have become, or already were in Luka's case, masters at drawing free throws.

If you look at a list of NBA players by most FTA per game, it's basically all star players, with a few fringey guys like Zion and Julius Randle mixed in. Not really any scrubs on there. Just a super high correlation between getting to the line and being a star player.

Doesn't necessarily mean he will become a #1 option, I still think he needs a jump shot to get there. But a #2 with all-defensive play on the other end? Sure, he can manage that, even if he barely improves at his 3P shot.

 

Basically worse Scottie Barnes with a twin. Doesn't even have an All Star nod like Scottie does. Should trade him to Miami for Norman Powell who does at least have an All Star selection to his belt.

 

He's looked more decisive and steady as a playmaker compared to mid or early season.

 

I honestly don't understand why anyone can be critical of Amen. The guy has arguably been our most positively impactful player this year. KD obviously scores a lot of points but I think there are things about him that are a net negative to the team(not necessarily a great teammate, lots of TOs).

Obviously there are many areas where the team would be stronger if Amen grew in specific areas but the growth from Amen has already been quite significant year over year. Let's not necessarily put Stone and Udoka's PG production problems on Amen - he is helping cover a gap from poor luck(Fred's season ending injury) and poor planning(Udoka giving Reed too limited playing reps last year, Stone not bringing in more ball handling depth given age/injury history of our best ballhandlers).

Most players don't enter the league and just pick up a new position and start making positive contributions like Amen is. It's debatable whether he ever picks up those skills that make him a future MVP candidate or get consistent All Star nods but he is 100% a player you lock up to a sizable long term deal because he helps you in virtually every area teams need help to win. Even with just modest improvements to execution you are talking about 20pt/8reb/6ast/2 stocks guy on good efficiency in addition to All NBA level defense. That's early career Kawhi type stuff.

Do I wish he had a 3pt shot, do I wish he turned the ball over less, do I wish he had more mid range shooting chops - YES to all of those but the fact remains if you aren't paying Amen - who are you paying because there only like maybe 20 players in the world today who produce more value on an NBA court for the money and you can argue Amen is still improving and could one day be a top 10 or better guy on value even if he doesn't have gaudy scoring numbers, or defensive metrics that award him the trophy hardware. Let's just admit NBA awards are somewhat broken(the sport equivalent of glamour muscles) and measuring Amen by them is probably distracting from just how strong and complete he is as a player.

 

It's not that I don't like Amen, I do, I think he's an incredible top tier defender with insane athleticism. That's just not a max player with his level of offensive ability. Are we supposed to be mega impressed with the superstar numbers of *quick check* 18 points a game shooting 22.1% from deep? That's a really low bar you're setting there for a superstar or even star player. Great numbers for a defensive specialist roleplayer, 100% but why would you want to pay anywhere near to a max salary for such low production on the offensive end? Seriously though. Scottie Barnes has more defensive impact than Amen and he's not even touted as "best defender in the league" so what are honestly talking about here? Amen Thompson is a fantastic defender, one of the best in the league. He's also not a star or superstar, he can't handle that scoring volume, he isn't an offensive engine and he's definitely not a point guard. That's ok, but y'all need to stop getting upset when everybody else doesn't think the sun shines out of his rear end tbh.

 

Exactly he’s still a Swiss Army knife. Basically a much more athletic Andre kirilinco. And Utah made him a Max player because well they’re Utah and Didn’t really have a choice

 

so much should be the player with the 5th most Win Shares and 11th most Offensive Win Shares be paid?

Win Shares
1.Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC15.3
2.Nikola Jokić • DEN14.4
3.Jalen Duren • DET10.6
4.Kevin Durant • HOU10.2
5.Amen Thompson • HOU9.8

Offensive Win Shares
1.Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC11.1
2.Nikola Jokić • DEN11.1
3.Jamal Murray • DEN7.7
4.Kevin Durant • HOU7.1
5.Jalen Duren • DET6.8
6.Luka Dončić • LAL6.6
7.Kawhi Leonard • LAC6.5
8.Jalen Brunson • NYK6.3
9.Amen Thompson • HOU6.2

 

Yeah that's not really an argument, win shares are not statistics, you're going to have to do better than made up "metrics" I'm afraid. I honestly couldn't give a flying **** about some arbitrary made up nonsense. He puts up worse numbers than Scotty Barnes, and you wanna pay him a max? Smart bro, I've got a flying pig if you want to buy?

 

I love Amen, but there are some folks here totally snowed by these "made up metrics" that kind of make sense the majority of time but are completely whacky quite often.

 

Who ever said i want to pay him max?

So how much you want to pay him?

 

All you need to do to see you can't put too much stock in the metrics is see how they're calculated. Here's win shares according to AI:

NBA Win Shares (WS) estimate a player's total contribution to team wins, calculated by summing offensive (OWS) and defensive (DWS) contributions, derived from individual box score stats, team success, and league averages. It proportionally distributes a team's total wins based on marginal points produced. A player’s WS represents their total "shares" of team wins.




Key Components of Win Shares

• Total Win Shares: WS = OWS + DWS
  .
• Proportional Distribution: The formula ensures that the sum of all players' Win Shares on a team equals that team's total wins (e.g., 50 team wins = 50 total win shares to distribute).
• Offensive Win Shares (OWS): Calculated using "marginal offense," which measures points produced over a replacement level player based on possessions, points per game, team pace, and league-average efficiency.
• Defensive Win Shares (DWS): Calculated using "marginal defense," which is derived from a player's defensive rating, defensive possessions, and team defensive efficiency.

That's not a statistic, it's an estimate made up by the random dude to prove his point. Nothing more, nothing less. I'll take actual numbers produced over made up estimates all day every day.

 

lol.

 

Ws/48 is actually one of my favorite metrics. I have compared it to players across generations and positions and it tracks pretty well to the "eye" test and historical standing of players. For example Jokic by far has the best career ws/48 (and all advanced metrics really) but it was Jordan before that. Hakeem ws/48 goes up in playoffs, etc.

 

Obviously no metric is perfect and it's always best to look at several different metrics to ensure you aren't just seeing an outlet, but WS/48 is usually pretty good so long as we're not talking about small sample guys.

 

Amen has taken a Yannis approach while Ausar took the Rodman Bad Boy™ approach.

 

Are you saying Dean Oliver is just some random dude?

Basketball Win Shares were developed by Dean Oliver, as detailed in his influential book, Basketball on Paper. The system is based on adapting Bill James's baseball win shares, attributing team success to individual players based on offense, defense, and playing time. [1, 2]

• Who: Dean Oliver, a prominent basketball analyst and pioneer in basketball analytics.
• What: A metric calculating how much a player contributes to their team's wins.
• Basis: Originally influenced by Bill James's work in baseball, the formula accounts for points produced and defensive contributions.
• Source: The methodology was formalized in Dean Oliver's book Basketball on Paper. [1, 2, 3]

Basketball Win Shares were developed by Dean Oliver, as detailed in his influential book, Basketball on Paper. The system is based on adapting Bill James's baseball win shares, attributing team success to individual players based on offense, defense, and playing time. [1, 2]

• Who: Dean Oliver, a prominent basketball analyst and pioneer in basketball analytics.
• What: A metric calculating how much a player contributes to their team's wins.
• Basis: Originally influenced by Bill James's work in baseball, the formula accounts for points produced and defensive contributions.
• Source: The methodology was formalized in Dean Oliver's book Basketball on Paper. [1, 2, 3]