Honestly the biggest underdiscussed factor here is that OKC and San Antonio's playoff performance matters just as much if not more than our own. If everything goes chalk and OKC/SAS smoke everyone in the playoffs, then walk through the Finals to a championship... the truth is there would be no viable argument to believe any kind of minuscule window exists for us in the next couple years. Both teams will be better next year than this year, and we are nowhere close now. Really the "run it back" or "trade for Giannis" arguments are only even discussable in a world where OKC/SAS get "found out" in the playoffs. If Wemby and Shai are really basically prime Bill Russell and MJ, surrounded by great young supporting casts, it's undeniable we're gonna have to aim a lot higher in our roster build than ancient KD + mismatched young guys + FVV/Adams.
I'd say the OKC and SA being strong in the playoffs would push for a Giannis trade, other consolidation move, or a tear-it-down approach. The run-it-back would be a waiting move to either buy time for a consolidation or to see if we really need to tear it down.
I dont think anybody has guaranteed success... 1 key injury can de-rail most championship aspirations.... slumps happen... bad decisions... locker room becomes divided... the best team doesnt always win - thats why they play the actual game. Look at 1983 Phi Slamma Jamma...
OKC and Sa wouldn’t be so good if they didn’t have all these outstanding role players around Wemby and SGA. If we trade for Giannis, we will end up giving up Sengun or Amen and mulitple firsts and still not be competitive in Durant’s remaining years and little draft assets to re-tool with. If Ime and Stone go down this route, I think a lot of fans, including myself, will spend less time and effort on watching the Rockets. I love basketball and the team too much to completely abandon rooting for them, but I certainly will spend less money and time on them.
If one assumes that the young core isn't capable of competing with Wemby and SGA, it is either consolidate or push back assets. I'm in the boat that the Rockets should give the young guys at least another season. That said, Sengun and a FRP for Giannis would be tempting as I don't the Rockets three best young players fit. I do find it funny that lots of people think the young core has no chance with Durant and/or Giannis, but will have a great chance without them once the young guys get extended and can't sign good role players. I get that the young guys aren't in their primes, but the vast majority of a player's development occurs in the 1st 4 seasons of their careers. The Rockets likely have one more good year of development in Amen, and 2 in Reed. I do not put my faith in atypical growth of only 1-2 young players, though I had higher hopes when more of the Rockets were younger and the younger players were further from extensions.
Sengun and 1 frp would make it more tolerable, but Giannis has next year at 58M and 27/28 at 62m and is 32 years old, has missed significant time to injury in 6 out of the last 7 years and does not want to play center. He will be clamoring for an extension the minute his feet hit the ground in Houston. His team has been first round fodder in the East for how many straight years? I’m for running it back, not because I think we can compete for a championship just by adding FVV and Adams, but because I don’t want Ime constructing our new roster and adding a fading super-max player is an extreme short term gamble. I do think we need to re-structure the roster somewhat if Amen or Sengun can’t develop an outside shot, but I’d rather wait until the old guys are on their way out. It looks like Sengun may have the ability for a 3 point shot which could at least make some of our issues moot. FVV at pg will make the Reed/Sengun defense issue less problematic. Durant is gone after next year and 27/28 is our best bet to do a roster re-set and we will have a lot more information about our young players if Ime doesn’t screw it up with his rotations and defense only approach.
Exactly! Either u think the young core are going to develop into a championship team - or you dont... If KD and Giannis dont make us contenders - then what chance would we have without them? Personally, I dont think we pulled a top-tier player from our draft picks... I dont think replacing KD and merely plugging in role players would make us contenders... I say we need to hammer the KD window... I'm fine merely jockeying support players for next year - but would be intrigued at a Sengun for Giannis move - depending on what additional assets are included... I feel once KD is done, we are a .500 team...
I also think that the young core deserves one more year unless there's a good star player in his prime to trade part of them for. (No, I don't want Giannis. His physical decline is likely imminent. And if I was to trade either Amen or Sengun, I'd prefer a guy who can shoot from distance.) I still think that Sengun may take a leap if his back is not a chronic problem. He has shown that he could be a guy you could run your offense around him. Somehow he has regressed from what he did in his third season. Not sure about the likelihood, but that level of him coming back is not too farfetched. He is averaging 32% on 1.8 attempts from 3 this season. That's not too bad.
