Tari has been awesome. I hope they do everything possible to extend him this summer. I would rather trade Jabari and keep Tari than let Tari walk in free agency. I would rather gamble on the better player than play it safe on the mediocre guy.
The Rockets do know the injury better than anyone else. they also know what Tari asked for better than anyone else. As Tari hasn't been traded, I think it can be inferred that the Rockets intend to keep Tari, but that Tari's money request, based on skill, injury history, was more than they were willing to commit this offseason. If Rockets are only one that knows the most about his injury, others should not assume it is the biggest factor. I expect years won't be the same as JSJ's because of the injury history (based on public available information, it plays a part just like money). As he's been the much better player now, I would not expect him to get much less AAV than JSJ. JSJ is younger, and I expect he's being partially paid for improvements that have not happened yet, while I think Tari is mostly developed, and whether he can get healthy. Granted, I thought JSJ was going to get a little less per season (I expected JSJ to have lower AAV, but more years than Tari this offseason). I still think Tari will get about $20M a season. Maybe a little more. Thinking 2-3 years guaranteed with 1-2 team options. If someone offers Tari JSJ money (years and AAV), I think Rockets would match even though they were hoping to save money. I don't want to trade JSJ, but I do lean towards gambling on better players than playing it safe within reason.
Offer sheets are limited to 4yrs. That’s why the most likely thing happening is the Rockets sign Tari right out of the gate vs having to deal with an offer sheet. he’ll take top total money over AAV. And even AAV, due to 8% raises vs 5%, it’s unlikely an offer sheet will have higher AAV. bottomline: offer sheets are best used when the player actually wants out. Then they craft the 1st yr or 2 as unmatchable. I don’t feel like Tari is there.
Thanks. Been so long with the Rockets having an RFA that is good, didn't really think about the reasons other teams have a tough time providing better offers. My guess would be the 1st year would need to be over $28M for the Rockets not to accept. I don't see another team offering that. I don't think Rockets want to pay that much either, but likely don't want to lose him either.
Yeah, but my main point is we don’t have to wait for an offer sheet. We can sign him outright like we did Capela in 2018 as RFA. As for hard to match scenarios, Rockets will be more worried about the 2nd year, just like how they crafted Jabari’s contract to be lowest in 2nd yr. This is due to timing of Amen’s 1st year of his new contract. An offer sheet would look to make it hard for us to stay under the 2nd Apron or something like that when Amen money hits the books.
With JSJ already lowering for the 2nd year, FVV being a free agent, DFS being non-guaranteed, and Durant on a team-friendly deal, I think the Rockets have prepared for Amen's extension well. I think the cap figure projection for next year came in lower than expected for the Rockets, making next year likely the more restrictive year, as many salaries are already set in Stone, while the Rockets will have more options in Tari's 2nd year under the next contract.
I'm starting to believe that Tari has legitimately become an above-average three point shooter, which I never thought he could do. The sample size is starting to get there. I still don't think he's a 48% three point shooter, that's absurd of course, but 40% on 5 attempts I could believe. For a 6'8" guy who plays good to great defense and rebounds the ball well, that's pretty special. We need the floor spacing badly, too. Hopefully we can find common ground with him regarding the injury risks and overall salary level and keep him here long term.
I am not saying he is at the same level but Kawhi also had serious problems with his knee in his career.
we better. This was the concern I had about going to restricted FA. It’s possible we cost ourselves some significant money. He’ll be highly sought after on the market. Losing Tari for nothing would be unthinkable.
I'm almost wth you but much like Jabari's shooting, I need to see how many games Tari plays this season.
Remember I said in July he could very plausibly follow a similar arc to a young OG Anunoby and you weren't buying it. At that time you found it a stretch that he'd shoot 36%. Now we're contending with the Lakers who have expressed interest and have $90m+ to spend apparently. Still, glad we're here whatever it costs us. I hope he finishes up the season healthy. Starting for the team is teaching him to control his rhythm and aggression for the first time in his career. Might have a monster asset/player on our hands. Big part of why I've been saying Jabari needs to watch out. Tari has dramatically outplayed him this season and guys advanced numbers have always been good. Don't want to get ahead of myself. Not a forgone conclusion he stays healthy but I'm excited for his future.
Tari is still playing bench player minutes in the mid-20 range. I don't know if it is still the load management thing. If not, I hope he gets more of Amen's minutes. Amen is playing 37 mpg. That's too much. If Tari can play more than 30 and raise his 3pt attempts to over 6, it will be a big help for our spacing problem.
I don't think Tari can play PG. His best position is played mostly by JSJ and Durant who play almost as much as Amen, but JSJ isn't as good as Amen and Durant likely is more affected by the minutes than Amen. If Tari is going to get more minutes, I'd guess it will come from Durant, JSJ, or bench guys, and not Amen. Amen may cause difficulties when guys sag off him, but he's still a very valuable player, and it is unlikely the Rockets can win without him playing major minutes. Davison and Reed are really the only alternatives to Amen.
I wasn't suggesting Tari to play Amen's PG minutes. When Amen sits, Reed or Davison/Holiday will be on the floor to play PG. Tari can play SG/SF/PF. He can take a few minutes of each of Amen's and Durant's (and maybe Jabari's) time. I want to reduce the time when both Sengun and Amen are on the floor as much as possible. Replacing Amen with Tari would bring more shooting and not give up too much defense.
Durant is another player who's on the court longer than he should be, in his case due to his age. I'm shocked that he's averaging a hair under 37 minute a game, essentially the same as Thompson. At the beginning of the season, I would have bet money that he wouldn't be playing that many minutes. Color me surprised. Coach Udoka is being reckless with KD, in my opinion, by playing him that much. It doesn't matter if KD wants to (and I'm assuming that he does). That's a decision for the coach, not the player. Save those minutes for the playoffs.
Yes, KD is the other guy whose PT needs to be reduced. If KD and Amen each donates 3 minutes to Tari, they get down to 34 mpg and Tari gets up to 31 mpg. Everybody will be happier.
KD dogs it a lot. He knows how to play soft so he can play more minutes, and avoid injury, so he can score more pts for his legacy. I’m not joking either. He knows he does it. It’s part of the reason his amazing efficiency really doesn’t impact our wins compared to last year.
Unfortunately, Tari playing SG with Reed forces Tari to guard PGs. Tari should be guarding 4s and 3s mostly with switching onto guards, ideally. I've loved the offense with Reed with Tari playing SG. I see it as a proof of concept for Reed's offensive abilities when he has 3 shooters on the court with him. The defense with Reed has needed Okogie or Amen more than I've expected (I did think Tari and DFS would work better with Reed defensively than they have). I do think Tari as SG would work better with Reed if the SF, PF, and C were better defenders such that the Rockets could switch more effectively. The Rockets need a wing that can shoot and defend so Tari can guard 3s and 4s more. I was hoping DFS's fundamentals would gel with Tari's gambling.
