Chandler continues to stir up trade rumors for Paredes. I get he is reporting what he is learning. But is the stove actually hot or is he just making news bigger than it is in reality?
I think that Houston is definitely still trying to make a move. If the roster was set then it would have made a lot more sense for Dana Brown to say so at the last press conference; instead he was pretty clear that they were still trying to add a LHH and didn’t shut down speculation on Paredes and Walker at all. If there were not legit traction toward a potential trade, Brown’s comments over the last 2 weeks would be needlessly causing uncertainty among his players. Paredes, Walker, Sanchez, and Meyers are all sitting in limbo waiting to see what city they will be living in for the next 8 months.
Yeah, I agree with that. But I don't know what benefit the Astros serve to gain in producing so much smoke. When you let that much smoke out other teams have to wonder if the building is on fire.
I agree with this. Pittsburgh is not a good trade partner. The Astros are not trading Paredes for prospects or bench/platoon players. They have 5 batters who hit lefty/switch and play OF or C. Mangum is a defensive specialist platoon bat that does not help the lineup. Suwinski is a AAAA guy. Reynolds is too expensive Bart is a solid secondary piece but not a guy to target. Cruz has crazy tools and absolutely could fit in the bottom half of the lineup where his defense and baserunning can help overcome his 32% K rate. His 20/40 ability should not be dismissed but he has twice the trade value that Paredes does. But we already have Cole who could end up being Cruz 2.0
Who thinks Cruz has twice the value of Paredes? He posted an 86 wRC+ and 1.6fwar over a full season last year. Even in his one good season (where he still only posted 3.1 fwar) he had a 30% k rate. He only has one more season of control than Paredes.
The average of Fangraphs 8 projections has him at 2.7 fWAR in 2026. The average of Paredes' has him at 2.2 Cruz is making $3.3 M in his 1st year of arbitration which means he will very likely make less in 3 seasons than Paredes will in 2. They are both young enough that age related regression won't factor in. Cruz projects to about 8 fWAR for less than $21 M over 3 seasons. ($43M surplus) Paredes projects for about 4.4 fWAR for just under $22M in 2 seasons.($13.2M surplus) I prefer my own values over baseballtradevalues.com but for context they have: Cruz projected 5.8 WAR and $16.5M salary = $29.9M surplus value. Paredes projected 4.5 WAR and $23.3M salary = $12.7M. In actuality with the club option Paredes projects to $21.7M salary so that raises his surplus value to $14.3M Regardless, with his premium defensive position, plus glove, power, and baserunning at less than Paredes' salary over 1 additional year he is much more valuable.
Astros get Lars Nootbar and Joey Bart. Pirates get Isaac Paredes Cards get Tremarr Johnson, Thomas Harrington and Jackson Nezuh.
I agree. I still think Nootbar is a great fit for the Astros but because of his surgery on both feet he will need to play in ST and prove his health. The Cards aren't likely trading him at a discount, but should trade him if they get a good return. Astros probably need to see him healthy. Maybe we can see a deal about March 1st after Lars gets into a few games?
I chatted briefly with Rome. He says the Astros are trying to get a third team involved for a potential deal with the Pirates. He believes the deal would involve Paredes going to PIT, Bart coming to HOU, and a third team sending HOU the desired MLB LHH OF. I’m sure the Pirates and/or Astros would be sending the third team pitching, and maybe Meyers, if desired.
Would logically have to be Pittsburgh right? Because if it were Houston sending the pitching, then the Pirates would be getting the best end of the deal by a mile. I imagine the blueprint probably would look like PIT receives: Paredes HOU receives: Bart, LHH, PIT/3rd team prospect 3rd team receives: 2-3 PIT prospects Of course, all this would depend on how good that LHH is.
