The Espada question is interesting. I would have fired him at the end of last season simply because there were too many questionmarks to waste a season to find out. Managers aren't that expensive and it seems weird to spend $200 million on a roster, but not a few million to steer that roster effectively. So the Astros have to believe in him - and if it turns out he is incompetent, then none of the rest of the roster moves matter too much anyway.
I did a count last Friday and found 8 pitchers that would have to be eliminated by opening day. Several more have been added since then, off the top of my head the number that will have to be cut is at twelve and counting.
I still think the wild card is Diaz. I’m hoping he truly is working on his swing and approach this offseason. The tools are all there. Him having a bounce back ceiling level season could tip the scales.
Based solely on the final season record, Espada would be on the bubble. Given that every pitcher who suited up last season had their arm fall off, I am willing to actually say that Espada is a top manager for pulling that record out of his .... hat.
277 players got 300 PA last season, literally nobody swung at more pitches outside the zone than Yainer did, 48%. If a pitch is even mildly competitive he's offering. Of those 277, only 2 saw less pitches inside the strike zone, why even bother giving him good pitches. It would really be fun to see Yainer develop even a smidge of plate discipline, he could easily compete for a batting title. His gift for hard contact is that good but his absolutely comical lack of discipline kills him.
90% confidence fwar ranges for each position player (my speculation, not backed up by any statistical analysis): Name: low-high; projected Yordan: 0.3 - 7.2; 4.4; MVP upside but also substantial injury risk Pena: 2.2 - 6.3; 3.8; MVP upside and a high floor Correa: 1.7 - 6.4; 3.3; MVP upside and substantial injury risk but high defensive value Diaz: 1.3 - 5.2; 2.5; Could be a top 5 hitting all-star catcher and durability and defensive role give him a high floor Altuve: 0.8 - 4.4; 2.4; injury and age related decline present a low floor while his track record gives him an all-star ceiling Paredes: 1.4 - 4.4; 2.2; all star upside with injury risk and role questions Meyers: 0.6 - 2.9; 2.2; high defensive floor with injury and offense risk Walker: 0.8 - 3.8; 1.7; track record gives him a borderline all star ceiling, age and recent performance give him floor Sanchez: 0.4 - 1.8; 1.5; very likely to fall between an effective platoon bat and a fringey bench OF Smith: 0.5 - 4.3; 1.0; All-Star ceiling with floor of what he was in sum in 2025 with less playing time Cole: -0.2 - 5.0; 0.8; borderline MVP 30/30 ceiling with floor of a guy who strikes out too much to stick in the majors Salazar: -0.3 - 1.2; 0.5; playing time risk gives him a low floor while defense gives him some ceiling. Allen: -0.3 - 1.2; 0.2; playing time risk gives him a low floor while defense gives him some ceiling. Matthews: -0.3 - 3.4; 0.1; playing time risk and strike out concerns give him a low floor while his tools give him a high ceiling Dezenzo: -0.3 - 2.6; 0.1; playing time risk and strike out concerns give him a low floor while his tools give him a high ceiling Whitcomb: -0.4 - 1.8; 0.1 playing time risk and defensive concerns give him a low floor while his tools give him a high ceiling for a guy very unlikely to get an everyday role I think Yordan, Meyers, and Sanchez are really the only guys with more downside than upside, and Yainer, Correa, Matthews, Cole, and Smith have massive upside relative to their projections.
Unfortunately, if that happens, it means they've dug themselves into a pretty big hole and are probably going to waste 2026.
I feel so blah about the Astros this year. I read their lineup and get somewhat excited. Then I just think of Joe Espada and know in my heart that he isn't the guy. I get he dealt with the highest % of player injury in baseball history, but I think a better manager like Dusty or Hinch would have gotten them in to October. That is frustrating because this team just has dudes that become different players when the moment is its biggest. Could be completely illogical thinking, but something about him rubs me wrong.
Espada is the manager that you have while the team is not ready to fully compete for a title. No expectations for the Astros as long as he's the guy at the helm.
Astros pitching and options: Hunter-3 Javier-0 Imai-3 McCullers-0 Burrows-1 Weiss-2 Hader-0 Abreu-0 King-3 De Los Santos-0 Okert-0 Pearson-0 Munoz-0 Blanco-1 (INJ) Walter-0 (INJ) Wesneski-1 (INJ) Arrighetti-3 Blubaugh-2 Ullola-3 Alexander-1 Gordon-2 Teng-2 Sousa-1 Murray-3 That doesn’t include all the NRI, of course. I don’t see a lot of roster cuts, unless the Astros ticket some of the guys with options to the club.
Astros Trade Value Ranking: Players with significant trade value: Hunter Brown: a Cy Young caliber ace with 3 seasons of control, would garner one of the largest returns of any trade in recent history. Jeremy Pena: an above average everyday SS with 2 seasons of control, would bring back a haul. Cam Smith: has value on par with a prospect ranked in the 30-60 range in the Top 100. Yordan Alvarez (10 team no-trade): between the no-trade, defensive limitations, the $81M he's owed, and injury history, his value is not that high, but he would still bring back a meaningful return because he's one of the 10 best hitters in the world when healthy. Isaac Paredes: a solid everyday 3B with 2 seasons of arb control, he'd bring back a good return. Mike Burrows: a recent trade acquisition, we have a very good gauge on his value (2 fringe top 100/Org Top 10 prospects) Yainer Diaz: I think his value is very close to Burrows Brice Matthews: a fringe Top 100 prospect Bryan Abreu: an elite rental RP making $5.8M Spencer Arrighetti: has value on par with a fringe Top 100 prospect Jake Meyers: an average everyday CF with 2 years of control, he should be able to bring back a couple of org top 10 prospects or equivalent value Bryan King: a very good lefty 7th inning RP with 5 years of control left, he'd need to bring back a significant return to be worth trading. Zach Cole: wide range of what he could be worth but probably just below Matthews Zach Dezenzo: value on par with an Org Top 10 prospect, was Houston's #4 before he graduated AJ Blubaugh: a solid Org Top 10 prospect Jesus Sanchez: a fringe-regular platoon OF, we saw what he brought back last deadline (a couple of prospects ranked in the org 20-40 range), and now he has 1 less season of control. Miguel Ullola: a solid Org Top 10 prospect Steven Okert: a rental middle reliever with setup upside Bennett Sousa: an optionable high upside RP, he could bring back an interesting prospect Kai-Wei Teng: a recent trade acquisition, we have a very good gauge on his value (a prospect ranked in the Org 20-30 range) Players with minimal trade value, mostly DFA fodder but if there's a team out there that likes them they could bring back a PTBNL or prospect outside an org's top 20: Roddery Munoz Jayden Murray Nate Allen Enyel De Los Santos Jason Alexander JP France Colton Gordon Shay Whitcomb Cesar Salazar Players with negative trade value: Cristian Javier: close to even, but Houston would probably have to chip in a little money to get anything back Christian Walker: my guess is his contract is probably about $15M underwater. Others: Lance McCullers Jr. (10&5 rights), Josh Hader, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa have full no-trade clauses and will not be traded. Houston would have to eat 100% of McCullers' contract to trade him. Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson, and Tatsuya Imai are all on recent free agent contracts and thus have minimal to no trade value. Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter, and Hayden Wesneski are all injured and thus have minimal to no trade value
Fun projections. Looking at these, I would say a lot more hinges on the great guys being great than the young guys being good.
I don't expect a bunch of cuts from the 40 man, likely 1-2 max. But there will be a ton of cuts from the AAA roster. In addition to the 25 guys you listed, there are 19 guys on the AAA roster (11 NRI and 8 guys who were not invited to big league ST but are on the AAA roster). If you take away the 3 guys who are hurt, that's 41 guys for 26 spots. NRI: Knorr Santa Roa Maldonado Willingham Lambert Bolton Carlson Cosgrove Leach VanWey AAA: Pecko Fleury Dombroski Kouba Mancini McLoughlin Guilfoil Otto
Maybe 1-2 but if you look at the pitchers on the AA roster and guys in High A from last year that seem ready to move up, there’s already another logjam there.
good information. I guess that means the Astros didn’t think too highly of a lot of those guys sitting in AA and AAA.
I think they were just dead set on making sure they make it to opening day with enough healthy big league ready arms this year. It’s definitely not a vote of confidence in their internal AAA arms (Fleury, Dombroski, Kouba, Mancini, and Guilfoil). I don’t think it says much about their AA arms other than they want to make damn sure they don’t have to rush any of them.
