Let’s assume that Correa is not/will not be the backup SS (which I think is far from clear). You would pay Dubon 6.1MM to be the backup to Pena for what, 10-12 games at the most? The rest of his playing time is in the OF at the expense of developing Cole Smith Dezenzo and Matthews, or at 2B at the expense of Matthews? I would much rather use that money for a decent backup C, toward signing a competent OF bat (along with money saved by dealing Sanchez or Meyers, or toward signing a Giolito or JV to a one year if they can’t do better with a soft market and have to settle for a one year deal.
in a vacuum, his versatility is nice. But on this roster, the value of his versatility is extremely low because we can’t give him ABs in the OF. It would be GM malpractice to do so. He could only help the IF, one that is logjammed. There is no case for his versatility on this roster.
From 2022-2024 he averaged 50 games in LF while playing 132 per year. I would take that right now as ling as he is healthy for the postseason
How many great groundball pitchers do we have now? No more Framber. Which starts are the best for crappy D in LF (also Altuve)?
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-mlb-players-for-2026-by-mlb-network Astros have 4 on this current player top 100 list (Brown, Yordan, Pena, Altuve). My guess is Paredes and Correa would be in the 100-130 range. Main thought here is that Pena/Brown represent the end of the competitive window if Houston isn’t able to develop/acquire a major star (or 2-3) by 2029. Maybe Cam Smith or Zach Cole break out this season or Mike Burrows becomes an ace. Otherwise we are probably looking at a rebuild sometime in the next 2-3 years. Good news is if that happens it should be much less painful than the 2011-2014 rebuild since they will be starting off with more big league assets.
I think Crane does everything possible to keep the team competitive while Altuve is still playing. I also expect them to tap heavily into the Asian markets to keep finances healthy. As baseball becomes more viable as an international sport, I expect it to be easier to field a competitive team year-to-year.
Yep. A lot will change in 3 years. The Astros went from the worst team in the league to the best team in the league between 2014 and 2017. Their farm system went from among the best in the league to among the worst in the league between 2019 and 2022. Not only do the Astros have several high ceiling controllable players in the majors (Smith, Cole, Matthews, Burrows), they also look like they might be rebuilding their farm system from the bottom up; if you look at their A ball and complex league rosters, they are on par with or better than most other organizations and boast quite a few very high ceiling talents. It’s their AA/AAA infields that have their farm rated so lowly and have their medium term outlook turned negative. One unlikely but certainly possible thing that could happen this year is for Correa to reassert himself as one of the best players in the league; controlling him another 6 years is huge if he stays healthy, even if he ages and sees some defensive decline (and an eventual move to 1B).
The Astros loss of draft picks from the scandal, coupled with picking lower in the draft and loss of picks through signing restricted guys - has comeback to hurt the Astros. In fairness, any organization that doesn't have the massive resources of the current Dodgers or the Yankees of the past, would go through this eventually. I know that Brown is doing what he learned in his career (save your owner money whenever possible), but the Astros may need to spend more money on player development and scouting. Also - it would probably be smart to start trading for international money and bonus picks that can be traded for. There is a slight chance that Smith and Cole both become above average starters locked into team control for years, and Miller sticks around and a few pitchers blossom - but I think the more likely outcome is that the Astros take a real step back soon and we see them start focus on getting young controlled players and future assets.
2025 ground ball/ball in air splits, pulled fly ball (as a percentage of all balls in play). I know this oversimplifies and doesn’t account for Ks or total balls in play, but maybe helpful. Hunter Brown is 48/52/13.5 Cristian Javier 32/68/26 Mike burrows 41/48/24 Spencer Arrighetti 37/63/23 (career average) Tatsuya Imai (using Luis Castillo numbers since he apparently profiles similarly) 42/58/19 Lance McCullers 48/52/19 Ryan Weiss no numbers available on baseball savant Jason Alexander 45/55/18 AJ Blubaugh 35/65/17 Nate Pearson 33/67/18 (Framber was 60/40/9.3 !!) Baseball savant (44) and fangraphs (42) say league average GB rate is about 42-44 percent. Big picture: We aren’t an GB heavy team, so Altuve/Paredes at 2B hurts less it seems. Only Hunter Brown (I’m not counting McCullers) is a plus ground ball rate. Conversely, a strong defensive OF matters more. (last year, Framber and HB were so ground ball heavy and they accounted for so many innings, it made good sense to run Altuve in LF more).
I agree, I’m finally to the point where I think the odds favor the window being closed for a couple of years. The good news is they should be able to avoid fielding terrible teams. Trading Brown and Pena (and Paredes/Diaz/Hader if they’re still around and good) next offseason would completely rebuild their farm system in one offseason, and they’d be winning 75-85 games from 2027-2029 while they play out Correa/Altuve/Yordan’s careers and establish young players. The team will still be pretty fun to watch (Altuve chasing 3k, Yordan hitting).
Based on what Nook and Snake posted, the question of whether the window stays open or closes depends heavily on what happens with the development of Cam Smith, Zach Cole, Dezenzo and Mathews. If their development informs the question of whether we should deal Peña and Hunter Brown next year (or at this years deadline), this tells us how much of a priority it is to give this group playing time.
True, but pitching could also have a big impact on the outlook. Arrighetti, Ullola, Burrows, Pecko, and Blubaugh have some degree of ToR upside and if multiple of them hit then all of a sudden Houston’s window probably stays open; I don’t think the odds are in favor of that but we’ve seen Houston pull a rabbit out of the hat there before with the Framber/Javier/Garcia/Brown/Urquidy group coming out of nowhere.
When Hunter Brown came up I was very intrigued by him, but after a handful of starts I realized that his fastball was flat and I somewhat lowered his ceiling in my mind to a MOR starter. Until he made the adjustment with the 2 seamer I would’ve called you a liar if you told me he’d be a top 3 pitcher in the AL in 2025. In saying that, is it too far fetched to think Cam Smith makes an adjustment and lives up to Dana Brown’s hype? Is it far fetched to think Zach Cole can be a 20/20 guy and a Jaren Duran archetype? Far less likely both happen… but if those 2 things did happen I don’t see how the window isn’t back wide open for a couple more years.(Assuming reasonable health throughout the rest of the roster)
Or just bite the bullet and sign Framber for 5 years/150m. C’mon Crane spend the money. Brown,Framber,Burrows,Imai,Javier Oh my! Still a very good batting lineup: Pena SS Paredes 2b/1b/3b/DH Alvarez Dh/lf Altuve 2b//DH/lf Correa 3b/SS Walker 1b Diaz c Cam Smith/Sanchez RF Meyers/Cole CF Seems like that one move makes you a World Series contender for 3 years.
rarely do long-term and near term goals, align like this. We need the kids to perform to contend this year and for the window to stay open. with this backdrop, I like the off-season that we have had even more. I don’t want a veteran bat free agent brought in here to take away playing time from the outfielders. if they fall on their face and we are in contention, we can address that through trade at the deadline pitching is a different story. We had to get arms and we did, and Burrows being controllable for multiple years is outstanding. We are still going to need some of the kids to pitch this year
Framber is a head case and made a terrible, selfish hot headed choice to intentionally cross up Salazar, one that could have injured a teammate. That said, he does not appear to be a bad human being. He didn’t choke or beat his spouse, ala Roberto Osuna. He hasn’t ever been charged or arrested. Besides the incident last year, he hasn’t even been a teammate to create clubhouse problem, yell at teammates, curse or blame coaches. For his career, he has shown up and posted more than anyone during this golden era. He has authored brilliant postseason outings and we don’t win the title in 2022 without him. You can dint him for the bad ones, but the list of Astros pitchers with poor postseason outings is long, including JV. If you can’t stand Framber, I hope you hate Lance McCullers even more. I hope neither is true. Framber for league minimum is a no brainer. Framber for $30MM for next year is a no brainer.
Thats a legitimate opinion. It's refreshing to read an opinion that puts personal ideals over winning. And make no mistake, Framber makes this team better. Period.
As you said. He was hot-headed. But he did not make a thought out choice. He reacted. Everything negative Framber has ever done has been due to not thinking but simply reacting and lashing out after losing mental control. He works on this everyday and in the overwhelming majority of the time it is short lived and he recovers. He is frequently more focused and better than usual immediately after an episode. We are all just human.
