[2023 NFL Draft/1-2] C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47514251/nfl-playoffs-myth-busters-14-teams-stats-trends-2026

["Myth: C.J. Stroud isn't the same player he was two years ago.

In 2023 when the Texans snagged the division title, Stroud was Offensive Rookie of the Year and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. He threw for 4,108 yards that season, along with 23 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. But his production dipped in 2024. And this season, he missed three games with a concussion and is averaging about the same number of passing yards (217.2) as he did last season (219.2). He also threw just 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Why it's a myth: He's still great when it matters and still isn't getting much help.

Stroud had the seventh-best QBR in the fourth quarter and the seventh best on third down in the entire league. He also had the seventh-best QBR when outside the pocket, which is of particular importance because the overhauled Houston offensive line still isn't doing much to protect him. That unit ranked 30th in pass block win rate, ahead of only the Lions and Chargers.

The OL also ranked dead last in run block win rate, which backs up the numbers that say the Texans' run game isn't helping anything, either. Houston's 108.9 rushing yards per game ranked 22nd in the league. It ranked 28th in the league at 3.9 yards per rush and 24th in the league in yards before first contact per rush.

The Texans are winning with defense, but when their offense has a good game, it tends to be because of Stroud, not in spite of him.""]

 

I can only judge what I see with my own two eyes, I love CJ but his abilities VS what this offense is do not compute, IMO CJ needs an air raid style offense ala Kliff Kingsbury and not a cut by a thousand cuts where were so conservative that we simply ask CJ not to turn it over and take the check down, Brady was a masterclass at this but let's be real, I doubt we ever see a 6 time SB Champion run this vanilla offense again and have SB caliber success 6 friggin times, let alone one SB. My fear is we don't really know what CJ can do, we have given him ZERO help on the O Line, he`s had 2 different OC in 3 years who have ZERO experience and the scheme is to "manage" the game while the D is the "hero". I just don't get the mentality, it's like asking Yordan to bunt with a guy on third, you're putting a round peg in a square hole. Yes, CJ is not as good as year one, but I have ZERO clue as to the "why" and until we give him the adequate tools how to we honestly judge him, and we better figure it out because he is about to get PAID and then were stuck in salary cap hell

 

It is clear to me that the team figures that with such a dominant defense, the team is better off playing conservatively with Stroud. They go to the run and have quick passes in the pre Randy Moss New England mode. Stroud made big plays in the past outside of the pocket. They don’t want to put him in harm’s way. It’s a defensible strategy (in more ways than one).

 

With the Texans defense if CJ can catch hot streak, they could really get to the Super Bowl. Nobody looks unbeatable, It’s wide open.

 

So CJ's playing better now than he was his rookie year?

Agree to disagee, but he is playing better than he was last yr.

 

I was listening to Clint S on 610 on the way home last night, he was talking about this particular offensive scheme VS the skills of CJ and he thinks this offense kind of neuters any creativity at the QB position and it's really a game manager type offense, where your asked to just not turn the ball over and play conservative and I somewhat agree with that, death by a thousand cuts and all that BS. IMO CJ is playing better than last year but not as well as he did year one and it just seems like he is not allowed to "sling it" ala Jow Burrows or Josh Allen......................my question is, if we're going to stick with this scheme, do we really need a $50 million year QB? It almost seems like we just need someone whose pretty darn good but not "great"..............don't get me wrong, I like CJ and for me personally I hate this offensive scheme, I think its weak sauce and to top it off the O Line while playing better isn't exactly lighting it up..................it's like were asking CJ to play with one arm tied behind his back, we didn't upgrade the O Line and then ask him to be a game manager.

 

I will make this easy on you.

Texans don't have a run game. They rely heavily on CJ to make throws on 2nd/3rd and long for it to be successful. He places top 5 in that area.

CJ is top 5 in the league in TO rate and or turnover worthy throw %.

If the offense truly reliant on those things who is better in the league out there that is actually available? Mills places near the league high in TO worthy throw % for those pushing for Mills.

CJ in this offense which Clint has pointed out. Is being held back due to the Texans philosophy. They don't care how they win. They just don't want to beat themselves.

Per efficiency data, he has surpassed his 2023 year while limiting sacks to almost in half. Its a big upgrade. His tape is just as good as his rookie year when it comes to anticipation throwing.

He has a lower bad throw % than 23. His on target throw % is the same as 23. His TO worthy play % is equal to 23.

His rushing epa has gone up. Sacks way down.

There isn't a guy out there better and you absolutely need a QB who is capable of bringing you back late in the 4th. CJ this year has shown that even in the Rams/Bucs/Jags games but it came down to two fumbles, and a missed tackle by Henry T.

Texans make those plays and they could have been the first seed in the AFC this year. We wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

I don't normally play IF games, because you never know... But, yeah - IF the Texans take 2 of their first three...

Think about this: the Texans have 7 fumbles this year. That's it. 17 games. 7 fumbles. And the *only* two they've lost were weeks 1 & 3 when they were driving for what could have been game-winning touchdowns.
- Dare fumbled @ the Rams' 25-yard line. ~Two minutes left; trailing, 14-9; would've been 2nd and 9
- Collins fumbled inside Jax's 20-yard line. ~Four minutes left; game tied @ 10; would've been 1st and 10 @ the Jags' ~20-yard line.

If To'To gets Mayfield to the ground and Collins doesn't fumble... CJ was pretty good in the Tampa and Jacksonville games, and both GW TDs would've occurred within final 5 minutes. I absolutely agree, we'd think a lot differently of CJ's season if they post Ws those two weeks.

Now, in Jacksonville, he did get a second chance and threw an interception to end the game. It's why I'm not playing the WHAT IF game. But I do think it's fair to factor in the Texans losing two games where, with one change not involving CJ, they probably win.

No one would be running CJ out of town if the Texans were 14-3.

 

I am not either as every team probably has one if not a few similar examples. I think context is important and until they upgrade the OL we shouldn’t expect CJ to post the fantasy numbers needed to woo the casual talking points in here.

 

Alot of this is true. My question is why are running the offense that Shields CJ from making mistakes.

Also I dont care what the stats say CJ isn't playing anywhere near as good as he did his rookie yr. But if you and you're stats are right then the new offense is really agreeing with CJ and he should only get better after Caserio/Ryans adds an IOL or two, a TE, a bellcow RB in next yrs FA/Draft.

 

I don't think that's what they're doing at all. They have "safe" options, if the more explosive plays aren't available. If you watch, for instance, the first play of the game v Colts - a 10-12-yard completion to Schultz - he's the safety. But Stroud had (I believe Higgins) running open deep but didn't see him.

One of the areas I think Caley needs to get better is how to scheme around teams that are going to take Nico out of the equation. Higgins' late-season emergence is encouraging - he's a desperately needed second playmaker. Hopefully, they can continue to find ways to get Noel involved, too, and then, of course, fingers crossed, Dell can get back.

I think fans are sleeping on the impact Dell's absence is having. They don't have playmakers beyond Nico. As a result, Stroud's not making the big splash plays like he did in '23. But, unlike '23, he's playing with an elite defense so his efficiency numbers are terrific: he's not taking sacks; he's not turning the ball over... That can't be the sum total of their offense, of course. But it's good enough.

I fully believe, with another offseason, they'll be *really* good next year.

 

Higgins has been making plays over the last 6-8 weeks. Look at his touchdown catches as an example.

 

I think we're a few offensive pieces away from being a Super Bowl favorite.

 

He’s gotten better. But even these past 9 weeks, his full season pace is 51 rec; 691 yards; 8 TDs. Really, really good for a rookie - but no defense is going to lose sleep over how to stop him.

Hopefully, he makes the leap to full-blown nightmare next season.

 

Stroud has just been okay these last two seasons. I know y’all don’t want to hear this, but he’s the reason why the offense has been so underwhelming, but no one wants to admit it.

There’s so many QBs that are better or have surpassed him this season. Mahomes, Lamar, Allen, burrow, mayfield, Herbert, stafford, hurts, Prescott, Daniels Goff, Darnold are all better than stroud.

Lawrence, maye, have surpassed him this season, maybe even dart.

Deshaun Watson in his prime would’ve made this team a true contender.

 

It has made sense to play conservatively with one of the worse running games and OL in the league for most of the year. Stroud was pummeled last year and it definitely affected his confidence. Now the OL is playing better, maybe they open the playbook back up, but I doubt it. There is nothing wrong with running a conservative offense with a defense as good as ours. It has produced 9 straight wins. The predictability of the offense is frustrating at times and the playcalling in the red zone has been perplexing, but we did see some evidence of changing that in the last couple of games. It’s hard to judge Stroud until we put a solid line in front of him for a full season. For now, I choose to believe he is going to be an elite QB for us down the road.

 

all those guys have better offensive coaches, systems, or better help around them to make them better although mayfield has been awful outside of the first two months. Daniels has been awful and been injury prone

 

Very interesting to see which version of Stroud shows up.