Seems like a close relative of the last time the Astros had an off-season prospect for pitcher trade from the Pirates… for a club controlled starter that was going to start getting “too expensive” for the cheap-ass Pittsburgh team. Burrows should be very effective (if healthy).. They’re one more starter away from being a playoff favorite.
Prospect rating. We came up with better prospects than our ratings after it fell. We stayed on the leading edge of new talent sources for a while.
I think part of the issue is that Melton really wasn’t a top 4 prospect for the Astros. Brito arguably was, but Melton had already lost his bloom. He had fallen behind Cole and Matthews in the pecking order. Also I also don’t think fans realize the overall value of what the Astros got. They got a pitcher under team control through 2032. A pitcher that the Astros were interested in going into the winter. A pitcher with an elite pitch and a good secondary pitch - but a velocity fastball that is hit too often (similar to Kikuchi). I asked about why the Astros made this deal - and they feel he has a lot of upside and can make some changes to sequencing and arm angle and he will be one of the toughest guys to hit. Also - even if he falls flat on his face, his stuff would be dominant in the pen. So while he isn’t an ace or well known name, they swear they would have made this deal even with a deep rotation - this was just a baseball move.
These are the kind of moves most of us fans don't get excited about until we see the results. Your insights have me really excited about his potential, but I also don't want to expect too much and be disappointed. I like the Kikuchi analogy and how they intend to adjust his arm angle and pitch sequencing. If they can turn him into a solid #3 (or perhaps even more) then that's a huge win for the price we paid.
Melton was the Astros top prospect. He moved into the Rays top 4 according to Pipeline (Rays have a much better system than the Astros) and Baseball America has him as the best prospect traded so far this offseason. LINK Melton's underlying metrics in AAA were elite. It's hard to find something Brice Matthews did better than Melton at AAA. Melton made way more contact in-zone, hit the ball harder, and had a considerably higher hard hit rate. Melton is also the better defender with more speed. My biggest worry with Melton is it seems like he is perpetually injured. The most interesting thing about Melton and Matthews is their difference in batted balls between AAA and MLB. Both had middling flyball rates in AAA, although Melton was better at pulling the ball in the air. In the majors, Melton had an absolutely putrid 80.5% GB rate while Matthews had an elite 59.1% FB rate. If Matthews could manage to keep his flyball rate that high I would have a lot more belief in him as a prospect. His level of passiveness in the zone combined with his lack of contact in-zone is hard to overcome, but that's definitely one way to do it.
I can tell you that the Astros did not view his as high as the trade publications do - which isn’t a major surprise because the Astros have consistently viewed their prospects differently than conventional thought. The speed and glove are there - they didn’t trust the bat before he was called up and trusted it less after he was at the big league level. The Astros like Brice Matthews better as a prospect. They could be wrong but he is younger and less experienced. As for the glove, they think Matthews can be an excellent outfielder. Losing Brito was a bigger deal to the Astros than Melton. The Dana and Gavin made the decision they like Matthews more.
Melton is not a spring chicken as prospects go. The dude is 26 and his wiggle room is minuscule. The conventional thought is that he may become a regular position player based on defense and speed; but his hitting tools don’t blow anyone away. Astros are selling high on him! As for Brito, he’s dominating A ball, which is great. But fella is 2-3 years away from even being a realistic option at the ML level. By that time the aging core may be retired or moved on in FA. Burrow in his rookie season proved he belongs in the ML; nearly 100 innings of sub 4 ERA. The Astros pitching staff love the tools, and feel they can guide him into a Hunter Brown trajectory. Funny thing is that most of the Astros podcasters, beat writers, even the well respected Astros posters here on Clutchfans like the deal; nevertheless it’s the oblivious national Media guys roasting the Astros. Brito may turn into a Cy Young guy in 5-6 years according to the National media; but being 5’10” and weighing 155 lbs doesn’t bode well as a workhorse. I think the National media saw that the nation loved to hate on the Astros and it still gets them clicks. Astros truly turned into the Yankees of the South; the team the national sportswriters loathed.
Agree, not so high on melton . Brito definitely was getting some hype as a prospect . Seems dana sold high . I have investigated Burrows a.bit now and really like the move . He seems like he could be a solid 2-3 for us (regular season) . No idea how he will do in playoffs. What we really need is innings . He seems to be on a good ramp with that. His upside and cost control looks great . I hope we can bring back framber. Our pitching needs to be better (and of course healthier) than last year I don't believe in Brown like that yet , I believed in framber more , up until his recent meltdown. Spencer , Javier have always been a bit too pitch inefficient for me . When they are efficient, they are great . Javier didn't find his form this year , so itsa question if he's going to return to 2022 form at this point . I liked Luis better , but that option is gone. I'd almost put Lance building up some arm strength and finding his groove on the same probability of arigetti or Javier being great Jason Alexander was the biggest contributer out of the everyone not named brown/ valdez (maybe walter ,but walter only pitched like 10 games
Eh - the national media has raved about other moves the Astros have made over the years. It might just be possible they, like many fans, overrate prospects. There are tons of high-A prospects with great numbers, and a good number of them will never amount to anything significant in MLB. But hope is fun, and so people tend to project the best outcomes for players. National media is also not going to dive as deep into details or rationales, so they look more at prospect rankings and see the Astros traded 2 of their top prospects and that drives their views. Not everything has to have an ulterior motive.
Can't argue with that... Still, if they never stop jeering Altuve at the plate, that'd be juuuuust fine with me!
