I agree about a SP2 trade decimating their future ... but ... that is the trade off. At some point, the Astros need to pay the price and develop the AAA/AA prospects, acknowledging that player development is a higher priority than the playoffs. The Astros did that last season intentionally with Cam Smith at the start of the season and with their AAA pitching talent later in the season due to injuries.
But at the same time, there is a non-zero chance that EACH of Smith, Arrighetti, and Matthews over 4-6 seasons are more valuable than 2 seasons of Ryan.
If I were in charge, I would be stacking the big league roster and the A-ball and complex rosters. I would be willing to trade away any prospect in AA/AAA to improve the big league roster. Smith and Matthews would be 2 guys I would be very hesitant to trade, but pretty much everyone else (Sullivan, Dezenzo, all the pitchers) would be available. You can sign AAAA guys to backfill your AAA roster, and if you are prudent in how you build your big league roster, you can buy time to rebuild the middle of the farm system. I think this closely aligns with what Houston is doing, but they just don’t have the resources to fully stack the big league roster. So that may result in a year or two rebuild between when the current big leaguers flame out and the lower level prospects (Neyens, Frey, Alvarez, etc.) arrive. If Brown ends up trading away guys from the lower level this year I will lose a lot of faith in him.
I think they would and likely will move him. The more options that go off the table the better for them
I like this philosophy, but I'm really high on Pecko and it would take something really special for me to trade him. I see him as a better Arrighetti who has control. SP2 type pitcher in 2 yrs and can contribute to MLB team next year. That's why I'm good with moving Arrighetti in a trade for a SP2 or an OF bat.
TINSTAAPP in baseball is a famous sabermetric acronym for "There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect," coined by Baseball Prospectus founder Gary Huckabay, highlighting the extreme volatility and high injury risk for young pitchers, meaning you should promote them fast because their potential window of peak productivity is short and unpredictable. It's a cautionary phrase in prospect analysis, emphasizing that high-ceiling pitchers often flame out due to injury or underperformance, making them riskier investments than hitters.
Exactly. I like the Astros AAA pitching prospects, but I am not too attached to any of them … just hoping one of them hits big.
This is a huge issue for contending teams, especially those who need to be carefully about payroll. They sign/trade for pitchers who are proven/semi proven because pitching prospects are very volatile and the team needs a high floor and can't afford to give innings to pitchers who perform terribly. Big market teams can afford to just pay veterans but mid/small market teams need to hit on the Hunter Brown's of the world. But every new pitcher brought in takes away a roster spot and opportunity from one of those prospects trying to be that.
Trading for a guy with many yrs of control and that has an elite pitch plus a 95 + mph fast ball is worth the gamble. If you dont think much of Melton (I dont) then what you're really gambling on is Burrows will be as good or better than Brito over the next 6 yrs and Brito most likely will be spending at least 2 of those yrs in the minors. With the Stros ability to develop pitching this is a very good bet IMHO.
Identify one or 2 pitchers you think have the best chance of success and the rest should be available in trade. For instance Hicks whose value is probably as high as it will ever be and Treadwell who's talented but has struggled with injuries are guys I would put in any trade for pitching and a LHB OF this yr. Rodriguez in A ball is a guy I've read about and seems like he's got great potential to be a SP 1-2. Forcucci is another guy I want to see how he can do after coming back from TJ. He's got a really good breaking ball from the clips I've seen.
Gotcha. I know the underlying concept, but expecting us to decipher some rando acronym is just wrong. If I ever see you post TOOTBLAN I will reach through the internet and punch you in the dick.
I agree with this. I like the Burrows deal. My post was philosophical in nature, not regarding that deal which doesn't really apply, since Burrows still has all his initial control remaining. My post was more about something like bringing in JV and then Ullola ( or better yet Blubaugh) getting stuck in AAA because of it. I'm all for bringing in a #2, even if he's a rental. But I would much rather give a good, deserving prospect a chance than sign a veteran #5 SP. I do admit JV is a special case though so I would not mind with him specifically.
Bargain bit FA gets ... I'm sure someone has already posted named , but here are few of my suggestions. Aaron Civale Michael kopech German marquez Griffin canning I've never watched Zach little but he looks like he could be one of the better guys to bet on . He might get the most out of the above group
