[Official] Astros Offseason

Under the current state of the roster and offseason, I would have been furious if they had moved on McNeil.

 

What the hell are you talking about? Major already responded for me and is spot on. In an ideal world Dubon and/or Urias aren’t playing that often but we all know injuries are going to happen.

As I said in my original comment, if we trade away Paredes and there is an injury to Altuve, Peña, or Correa, we are screwed as we have no one to back those guys up now. If you didn’t like the play of Dubon and Urias, wait until you get to watch Nick Allen getting those ABs instead.

In summary, I don’t care about Urias and Dubon being gone if we are keeping Paredes.

 

McNeil would have been a very real possibility if the Astros had already tied up a #2 starter. They would use him as a corner outfielder and at second base. I don’t think he is ideal but he can stretch the line up some.

I’m still hoping they make a deal for a #2 starter and can move Jesus and get a bat in free agency.

Then again, I can understand if they have some hesitation because I expect they will be rebuilding in 24 months.

 

Of course it matters because our rotation is heavy on fly ball pitchers.

 

That may be true as well but there’s a reason good regular season teams like the Guardians, Brewers, and Rays have not fared well in the playoffs. The pitching is so stout in the playoffs that you need really good hitters to combat that.

It’s a lot tougher and more expensive to find really good hitters though. This is why those low payroll successful teams load up on defense and pitching development. It’s a lot cheaper and you can win a lot of regular season games playing the “right way” through defense and baserunning.

 

Injuries happen but 2025 was extreme. My point was that playing your utilities guys that often is indicative of too many injuries to important players.

If Allen does play, maybe he can successfully execute a sacrifice bunt. Maybe he's not even on the roster anymore in March because a better option emerged (Brice Matthews?). We'll see in spring training. Espada will have to get creative with Paredes and the current roster.

 

So it sounds like you are in agreement we shouldn’t trade Paredes?

 

We’ve also seen HOF type hitters go cold in the playoffs… because its a sample size issue.

You could also say Pitching/defense/run prevention matters even more in the playoffs. Good pitching beats good hitting. Yes, good hitting can sometimes overcome good pitching… but invariably hitters usually only get hits when pitchers miss spots/make mistakes. Hitters that have a good eye and can foul off pitchers pitches plays up no matter what the context (regular season/playoffs).

Trying to build a roster simply for playoff success/strategy is all theoretical… the most any team can play is 22 games. You’re not going to have a strategy/philosophy that works ‘better’ over 22 games vs 162. In reality, the teams that do well over those 22 possible games have a bit of streakiness (luck), have good pitching performances, have depth, and play good defense.

 

On this note... I firmly believe that the Blue Jays were the better team over the Dodgers... but poor base running at critical moments of games 6 and 7 spelled their doom...

 

I only have the WS winners rankings from 2003-2022 but there were many bad defensive teams that have won a WS in the last 20 years.

Only one team was below average in wRC+ and that was the 2005 White Sox who came in at 17th. Further, only one team was below average in SLG. Meanwhile, there were 7 teams in that same span that were below average in UZR and 4 teams below average in DRS.

The 2004 Red Sox (25th and 29th in DRS/UZR) and 2011 Cardinals (20th and 27th) were two of the worst fielding teams in baseball. You’d probably have to go back a long time, if ever, to find a team that ranked 25th in SLG or wRC+ that won a WS.

 

So you’re using regular season performance indicators to see who performed in the playoffs?

 

In small sample sizes, the little things matter that much more. And luck.

 

So you think those bad defensive teams in the regular season became good defensive teams in the playoffs? I’m not sure what your point is here…

Do you want me to get you the stats from those Cardinals and Sox teams in the playoffs or what?

 

Ask Billy Beane how his complete disregard for baserunning and defense fundamentals worked out for him in the postseason: "My **** doesn't work in the playoffs." (8 postseason appearances, 1 Division Series win while he was GM)

You need a team with solid fundamentals and the ability to play situational baseball when the situation arises. You need to control the running game, and to take extra bases, or move a guy over and score him without a base hit, etc...etc...when 1 run means everything. But you can't do those things when it really matters if you don't work on them all year.

I won't speak for @Nick, but I'm pretty sure that was his point this post:

 

Merry Christmas and thanks to all you regular posters that keep the board interesting and informed.

 

The point is small sample sizes are just that. There are no trends/correlations or secret sauce formulas on how to win in the playoffs, except that every mistake will be magnified due to said small sample size. This is also not an either/or discussion.

The best way to win in the playoffs is to simply make the playoffs… which is based totally on being a good regular season team and doing the things necessary to win over 162.

But once you’re there, you can’t be sloppy about the details.