Seems that the Astros have a healthy stable of Brown Arragheti Burrow Javier Weiss McCullers JP France is healthy and ready to go. Colton Gordon provided some valuable innings. Still on the mend are Jason Alexander and Wesneski, but both are expected to return perhaps in June or July. Though Ronel Blanco isn’t expected back until the tail end of 2026 if he even can make it back this season. The Astros have some health getting back to the rotation, and hopefully they can manage the innings so to keep the arms as fresh as can be. In looking at the 2025 current roster, I don’t know if they’d try and bring back Verlander; though I would hope they would, as he provided a lot of stability and leadership in his past stints with the Astros.
I’d put Blubaugh in the mix to earn a starting spot out of spring training. Pecko and Ulola are probably a good month away from getting a chance
Brown TBD (they will add another decent SP before the season starts) Javier Burrows Arrighetti Weiss McCullers Blubaugh Alexander Gordon France Pearson Ullola Pecko Fleury Those are the arms that have a good chance of starting a game at some point in the first half next season. After that you have the fringey AAA SP (Dombroski, Lambert, Otto), the legit prospects in AA (Hicks, Mayer, Tredwell, Nezuh, Santos), and the 3 injured guys (Blanco, Walter, Wesneski). The Astros don’t have a top 10 rotation, but they have more quality pitching depth than they’ve ever had.
Small quibble. Ryan Weiss might have been promised the #5 spot in order to sign :shrug: Since Arrighetti has been voted "most likely to be traded for a SP2" ... Didn't Dana Brown say that the Astros signed Nate Pearson as a starting pitcher? Honestly I had to lookup his stats to know anything about him, He is 29 years old, pitched in 123 MLB games and only started 6. Pearson's pathway to cracking the Astros starting rotation is unclear. Jayden Murray is on the 40 man roster and has been a starter for most of his career. Murray deserves to be on your list, albeit near the bottom, hanging out with the likes of Nate Pearson. I think that we all know better than to pencil in Ronel Blanco (early June 2025 TJ), Brandon Walter (late September 2025 TJ) or Hayden Wesneski (May 2025 TJ), for 2026.
The Astros only used 15 SP in a year of record injuries. So the list doesn’t really need to go deeper than that. Jayden Murray will never start for the Astros unless it’s as an opener. Weiss was guaranteed $2M. A guy on a paltry salary like that would be a fool to think he was guaranteed any specific role. I think he will be brought in as a SP and if he stays healthy and throws well, he will be in the rotation. Pearson was lucky to get a big league contract. Dana Brown said he thinks he can start but like Weiss, Pearson would be an absolute fool to think a $1.4M salary guarantees him any specific role. He might start the spring throwing multiple innings and if he looks dominant and/or there are a bunch of injuries, he might get a shot in the early season rotation but the odds heavily lean to him in middle relief and that’s why I have him so far down the list. If the Astros burn through the top 11 on my list then most likely it’s a good ways into the season in which case 2-3 prospects will be ready, guys like Pecko, Mayer, Hicks, and Tredwell. I don’t think anybody is counting on Blanco, Wesneski, or Walter in 2026. Blanco and Wesneski might get on a rehab in Aug/Sep and if they look great might add some innings in Sep and be in the mix for the playoff bullpen. But I think the Astros have learned their lesson there. Counting on Javier, Garcia, and McCullers to save the day last season was a huge mistake.
I do not disagree but ... Looking at Jayden Murray's 2025 I see a single MLB start ... which I for one do not remember but for a man my age these things happen Given how many pitching arms fell off last season, Murray's 11.2 MLB IPs is no surprise ... but it is an indication how the Astros rate Murray versus the other pitchers that they had that are MLB ready and pitched more IPs than him. Murray is still on the 40 man roster for now and that 1.54 ERA over 11.2 IPs is nothing to sneeze at. One could even say that it hard to suck at pitching and have a 1.45 ERA over 10 IPs in the MLB. Murray is likely just a AAAA pitcher and should expect a white knuckle ride between now and the end of Spring Training, to remain on the 40 man roster.
Murray’s start was a 3 inning gem on Sep 12 when Houston had no other arms available, but even in that game he only threw 40 pitches. Dont get me wrong, I think Murray might be a very underrated pitcher. His development was clouded by injury. He throws hard, throws strikes, and gets good movement on his pitches. It would not shock me at all if he ended being a great 7th/8th inning leverage arm (and also wouldn’t shock me if he was just an up and down middle reliever). But it would shock me greatly if Houston turned him into a starter.
My hope is for one of the starters that doesn't make the starting rotation turns into a stud 7th inning guy. Out of this list Blubaugh has the best chance to fill this role, followed by Weiss/Pearson IMHO.
My understanding is that he was a starter when they got him in the Mancini trade and tried keeping him as a starter but he could not stay healthy and/or simply didn't impress So, per the usual, they tried him in relief before releasing him and it worked. So I'm pretty sure he is a reliever as long as he is in the Astros organization, for better or for worse. Found money.
The Twins seem to have pushed pause on trading away any more of their good players. Not sure why. But I doubt Ryan is being actively shopped. If he were, based on how the market has been so far, he would require a big haul. Something like Cam Smith, Spencer Arrighetti, and Brice Matthews would be my guess.
That would really hurt, but it is in the neighborhood of a fair trade. I could see the Twins asking for more, like the Astros best pitching prospect (like Miguel Ullola or Ethan Pecko) and a lottery ticket from the complex leagues (like Xavier Neyens or Kevin Alvarez), instead of Brice Matthews.
Not sure how good any of these guys will end up, but 2 years of a Joe Ryan (who's never had an ERA below 3.40) for 15-ish years of these guys doesn't seem like a winning trade in many scenarios at all. One Ryan arm injury and you've just blown up the Astros' future. If we trade those guys, I'd rather get more guys like Burrow with lots and lots of years of control and trust the Astros' pitching geniuses to turn them into better players.
I agree with you. I would not want the Astros to make that trade, I just think that’s where the market is right now. Things are not really setting up for Houston to be able to add a legit #2 SP without decimating their future. Their assets just do not match up well with their liabilities right now. Liabilities (holes in their organizational roster, in order): 1. #2 SP 2. LHH OF capable of hitting in the top 5 of a contending lineup 3. MLB Top 50 prospect to improve their long term outlook and/or provide trade capital at the deadline 4. Backup C Tradeable Assets (pieces they could let go of without creating a new hole): 1. ~$20M in available payroll 2. 3 unestablished high upside MLB-ready starting pitchers (Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Ullola) 3. Christian Walker 4. Jake Meyers I’m not concerned about backup C. I am high on Salazar so if they just brought in another guy (on top of Carlos Perez) on a minor league deal, I am ok with that. It’s not a priority. Theyre very unlikely to be able to add an elite prospect with the Assets they have. This is slightly mitigated by having an extra pick in the upcoming draft, but the reality is that Houston is going to enter the season with a well below average farm system, especially in terms of top end talent. Between their young SP and available payroll, they should be able to address 1 of their 2 major needs. If they are able to find the right deals then they might be able to address both, but it would likely be with players fans didn’t really think fit the bill. There’s a lot of offseason left, but my guess is that Houston is going to enter the season with what most people consider a crummy farm and a big league roster that is a bat or a pitcher short.
There is a non-zero chance that Cam Smith is ever an all star, just an average RF/3B Spencer Arrighetti is anything more than a league average #4 for his controllable years, and Brice Matthews ever posts a positive WAR MLB season Just as their is a nonzero chance Ryan's arm fall off in the 2026 Astros Spring Training.
