Astros trade for Mike Burrows

Seems like a close relative of the last time the Astros had an off-season prospect for pitcher trade from the Pirates… for a club controlled starter that was going to start getting “too expensive” for the cheap-ass Pittsburgh team.

Burrows should be very effective (if healthy).. They’re one more starter away from being a playoff favorite.

 

We really do not mention that one pitcher that is "Not an employee of the team", do we

 

Prospect rating. We came up with better prospects than our ratings after it fell. We stayed on the leading edge of new talent sources for a while.

 

I think part of the issue is that Melton really wasn’t a top 4 prospect for the Astros. Brito arguably was, but Melton had already lost his bloom. He had fallen behind Cole and Matthews in the pecking order.

Also I also don’t think fans realize the overall value of what the Astros got. They got a pitcher under team control through 2032. A pitcher that the Astros were interested in going into the winter. A pitcher with an elite pitch and a good secondary pitch - but a velocity fastball that is hit too often (similar to Kikuchi).

I asked about why the Astros made this deal - and they feel he has a lot of upside and can make some changes to sequencing and arm angle and he will be one of the toughest guys to hit. Also - even if he falls flat on his face, his stuff would be dominant in the pen.

So while he isn’t an ace or well known name, they swear they would have made this deal even with a deep rotation - this was just a baseball move.

 

These are the kind of moves most of us fans don't get excited about until we see the results. Your insights have me really excited about his potential, but I also don't want to expect too much and be disappointed. I like the Kikuchi analogy and how they intend to adjust his arm angle and pitch sequencing. If they can turn him into a solid #3 (or perhaps even more) then that's a huge win for the price we paid.

 

Melton was the Astros top prospect. He moved into the Rays top 4 according to Pipeline (Rays have a much better system than the Astros) and Baseball America has him as the best prospect traded so far this offseason. LINK

Melton's underlying metrics in AAA were elite. It's hard to find something Brice Matthews did better than Melton at AAA. Melton made way more contact in-zone, hit the ball harder, and had a considerably higher hard hit rate. Melton is also the better defender with more speed. My biggest worry with Melton is it seems like he is perpetually injured.

The most interesting thing about Melton and Matthews is their difference in batted balls between AAA and MLB. Both had middling flyball rates in AAA, although Melton was better at pulling the ball in the air. In the majors, Melton had an absolutely putrid 80.5% GB rate while Matthews had an elite 59.1% FB rate. If Matthews could manage to keep his flyball rate that high I would have a lot more belief in him as a prospect. His level of passiveness in the zone combined with his lack of contact in-zone is hard to overcome, but that's definitely one way to do it.

 

I can tell you that the Astros did not view his as high as the trade publications do - which isn’t a major surprise because the Astros have consistently viewed their prospects differently than conventional thought.

The speed and glove are there - they didn’t trust the bat before he was called up and trusted it less after he was at the big league level.

The Astros like Brice Matthews better as a prospect. They could be wrong but he is younger and less experienced. As for the glove, they think Matthews can be an excellent outfielder.

Losing Brito was a bigger deal to the Astros than Melton. The Dana and Gavin made the decision they like Matthews more.

 

Anderson Brito being so young and having arm issues missing 2 months during the season

 

Stone Cold Stros - Anderson Brito missed 2 months of the season due to Arm issues.