When the other team scores on Reed or Durant or Amen ect., take the ball out of the basket and go splash all over their faces. No need for anyone to hang their heads when you can just outscore the shitty teams.
An interesting stat: Reed is on a personal 19 game winning streak. The Rockets have won the minutes with Reed on the court for 19 games in a row. +8 +3 +13 +17 +19 +7 +13 +6 +7 +33 +2 +22 +2 +5 +6 +3 +10 +17
This is actually crazy. Obviously +/- isn't a perfect stat that tells you everything, but this definitely tells you a lot about the impact Reed has when he's on the court. Nice find.
Also tells you that his defensive issues are overall not detrimental when hes on the floor. Even if teams "pick on him" during the course of the game they are not gaining any advantage on the score board. Now situationally, like at the end of games it could definitely be an issue but in totality the Rockets have been much more successful when hes in the game.
There's some luck in that streak in that he's had some bad games. That said, Reed was smoking hot for a long while. What the truly telling number on +/- is that the Rockets have been -4.1 in the 21 mpg without Reed since 11/15. In other words, the Rockets have been playing worse than most tanking teams when Reed is on the bench for over a month.
You're right re: the non-Reed minutes. And for sure there's for sure some luck in that streak, but... Reed was an outlier +/- guy in his 1 year of college. Like absurd on/off swing. It's why he was the #3 pick, just as much as the 3pt shooting and stock rates. And then he's the guy who has a crazy on/off streak once he starts playing real minutes in the league? Some guys just have a special sauce that wins minutes.
Exactly. Is a “blow by” past Reed for 2 any different or worse than an uncontested 3 due to slow rotations and/or bad close outs from Alpi, Bari, or Tari? Because they’re both happening. And to clarify your post, they are WINNING the minutes with Reed on the floor. Not trading baskets.
If we put Reed into the starting lineup, we can increase his minutes per game and benefit from additional minutes where he's on the floor. He's averaging 25 mpg now. Maybe we can get that up to 30.
Because if the opposing team exerts ANY energy on defense, the Rockets become incredibly easy to guard when the floor is loaded with non-shooters and Durant/Alpi spamming perimeter isos. Hard double and Durant is a turnover machine. Alpi wants to start every post up from the 3pt line. Forcing horrible shots hoping to get bailed by a whistle. I’ll be interested to see how/if we get better when DFS rejoins the team.
If you do a subgroup analysis I’m pretty sure you’ll find that it’s not quite so pretty during the last couple of minutes on 30+ minutes or back to back final minutes. The eye test indicates he’s short on all his shots, walking in cement on defense. Regarding early during this play yes I agree, it makes sense Reed is not a worse defender than Nash, curry, Kyrie etc but those defensive systems seem to compensate for the players defensive weakness. I just don’t know why we can’t . We’ve played the warriors so many times and I can’t recall exploiting curry defensively , thy never gave us the opportunity
And some people should not comment on things they have no understanding of. When people who knows math say single game plus/minus means nothing, they are talking about a single game. Not 19 games. They are also speaking about it from a predictive value standpoint. As in you can't use that number to predict he's also going to have terrible plus/minus numbers going into the next game. Not that said player may not have sucked that particular game.
Exactly game here and there too many confounders But 19 games +/- Plus-minus = (your team’s points scored while you’re on the court) − (opponent’s points scored while you’re on the court) it becomes statistically improbably that you being on the court hurts your team when taken collectively
Another way to look at it is that he also helps the team even when having "bad games" or at the very least he's not really hurting them.
Reed is so lucky, we should send him to represent the Rockets the next time we are in the lottery (probably 2027 Nets pick).
I think plus minus definitely CAN mean nothing if it’s a one game sample size. But I think when the numbers are consistently pointing towards Reed being a super positive player when he plays…that **** means a lot!
+/- and Net Rating needs to be for all games and compared to his teammates https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*HOU&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*HOU&dir=A&sort=NET_RATING
i'm so annoyed that we didn't give Reed more playtime last year. would have made his play a lot more consistent this year. He's basically a red shirt freshman all things considered.
One thing I've definitely noticed over the years of watching the NBA is that some teams tend to stop with player development once they reach "contender status" and this never ends well. The teams that stay at the top consistently are always looking to find value from young players. Looking at Morey specifically, i felt like we never tried to develop anyone in that time. We drafted Dillon Brooks somewhere in the 2nd round and gave him away. Melton, Hartenstein... the list goes on and on. I feel like if we had just tried to give them more time, they could've contributed something.
