There's no real reason to be reading into what a 22 yr old who had very limited minor league experience did in his first year. There are endless examples of guys who never figured it out, sucked their first year then figured it out, sucked for a few years before figuring it out, figured it out immediately, etc. We have zero insight into Cam's mental toughness/fragility or whether he was exhausted or just overmatched, etc. Cam could down any of the above paths and it (1) shouldn't be surprising and (2) won't tell us what the best move in 2025 should have been. However he does, he could have ended up worse if he was in AAA last year. Or vice-versa.
I'd like to think the coaching and trainers are the best in the system at the Major League level. So there's that.
All these posts already deciding what to do with Cam to begin next year are crazy to me Cam goes to ST as the likely starting RF for 2026, but what he does in camp matters If they feel like he has shown some adjustments/improvements and he is ready to go, he will be the RF If not then he goes down and whatever else has happened in ST will determine who gets RF
Based on what I saw early in the season with Cam, I have no doubts he will be a really good player in the near future - he absurdly talented. That being said, I really hope they make him earn it in Spring training. If he’s gonna be the same guy he was last year, I’d much rather keep him in AAA till he proves he can lift the ball more. You don’t want to burn 2/6 years of service time of a potential star because you rushed his development.
They need to make him earn it AND keep it. He is 23, less than 150 minor league PAs and still has 3 options. Dana Brown may have cost this team a postseason spot by keeping him on the 26 man all of last season. That can't happen again.
This is utter nonsense. If they had won 1 more game (unrelated to anything Cam Smith did), then they may have made the postseason by keeping him on the roster all season long. Who knows if the replacement is worse and costs them 1 game. These kinds of things are absurd. You could point to so many different variables that cost the team 1 game and blame it on that random thing to create whatever narrative you want.
I'm a big Cam Smith believer, he's gonna be good this season and great in a few years. I think his struggles were all about physical and mental burnout from the first time MLB grind. FWIW I also agreed with Browns choice to leave him on the roster all season, even when he was playing poorly. Having said that, if he has a rough camp after his poor finish the team will be justified in starting him at AAA. It may benefit us on the service time issue, but it will be valid and not a team just stealing an extra season from a prospect. Don't think it will happen though, like I said I'm a believer. He's gonna be in RF opening day and hopefully will still be there in early November.
I agree that several things could he pointed out that likely or reasonably were instrumental in a single loss. All the injuries, Frambers terrible second half, Walker's terrible first half. They go on and on. What is definitive is that the Astros had the same record as the last AL playoff team and only lost on a tie breaker. So if everything else stays the same except the Astros win one more game they make the postseason. Let's use Cam as an example of how they could have made a change that impacted at least 1 win. From July 5th - the end of July, Cam lead the team in PAs and had an OPS of 412 which is a wRC+ of 20, good for negative 0.5 WAR. That should have resulted in him getting sent down IMO. instead: August: 119 outfielders had at least 50+ PAs and Cam (75) was 116th with an OPS of 428 which is a wRC+ of 28. He compiled negative 0.4 WAR in which only 4 were worse. Chas had 0.0 WAR in 32 PAs Dubon had 0.0 WAR in 84 PAs Urias had 113 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR in 60 PAs Caratini had 130 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 47 PAs Dubon played 16 of his 26 games in the infield. The Astros could have just used players on the existing roster and the net would be 1.0 WAR or better even if they kept the guy who replaced him on the bench. It's very reasonable that having Cam in AAA in August (or July) would have resulted in one more win.
This is all true. Gordon instead of blubaugh after it was pretty clear he wasn’t the dude irritated me as well.
He burnt out in July. That isn't getting tired at the end of the year, that is the middle. Dana Brown's ego wasted a year of Cam Smith. There is nothing Cam learned in the majors this year that he couldn't have learned in AAA. He probably could have learned more.
I submit the case of Kyle Tucker. His first couple of years, his only promise was in the minors, but when called up to the majors, he looked overmatched. But once he was playing regularly, he thrived. But not at first. Every case is different, but this is a possibility. This could jump start his career or it could hinder it. But I remember a time the Astros never seemed to call up a player before age 27 and I prefer this method.
I think Tucker's path is exactly what Dana should have done with Cam. He wasn't ready his first time so went back to AAA for most of the next season. I think Cam Smith is going to be very good. I'm expecting a couple of all star seasons in an Astros uniform. If those started this year I would be surprised but not shocked. I still think he belonged in AAA the 2nd half last year.
I think we're speculating on whether that helped or hurt his development. But what is certain is that we lost Service time with CAM.
We have not lost it yet. If he spends time in AAA ( I think at least 2 weeks before arbitration but not sure) then the Astros get the 7th year. But that also feels like a loophole the PA will want to close in negotiations.
There is no doubt that Cam will be in the big leagues this season. I think the experience he got last year will accelerate his development. We all know what he needs to work on and I'm sure he's been working lifting the ball all off season.
