He should take them even at 30%. What did we expect, suddenly he starts shooting at 40%? And there is a good chance he will be above 30%. 33% is quite decent for him. Jokic was 34.6% career until 2 years ago he is also 5% up in ft% with 20% more volume. Another step in the right direction. you just need to keep investing.
Subjectively, it feels like he is a lot closer to making a lot of those misses though. His FT% is also up to 74%, and his midrange game has rebounded from career lows last season to looking pretty good again. (46% from 10-16ft, for example.)
He needs to at least be able to shoot +30% it’ll open so much more up if they have to think about him pulling up. Triple threat center from the top of the key. Look out.
I dunno man, I know people see/site the "35% on the year" number but if you remove that one outlier game against GSW he's shooting 38%. Removing the worst game is as valid as removing the best. I expect regression, but removing a game just isn't the way to show it, IMO. Call it out, sure as a reason to expect regression.
It is a completely valid point and is the first thing I thought when I read this. Still much better than the kpj Stan argument of if you look at the games where he played well, he is a great player But the good start to the season is a trend he’s had historically. Probably just getting worn out through the season. So I am expecting him to finish at lower percentages. But that shouldn’t deter him from taking the 3s. His form is better, he worked on them. His ft% is up 5 pct pts which is actually a good indicator for shooting improvement. So just continue what you are doing. See the results and iterate next summer starting from a better point.
Really? I feel like he airballs or barely hits rim on wide open shots all the time, and when he makes one it's shocking
It's not enough of a volume to make a decision. Keep pulling up with NO hesitation. He's not on Amen territory yet. Can adjust later if needed.
Alpi is still at least two years away from the start of his prime. Players still get better during their prime, just look at Jokic. Alpi is improving every year and that will likely continue for the next several years. There is not telling what his actual ceiling will be but I fully expect him to be at least at 33%, likely higher, from three when he gets there.
Sen Alpi to G League he is not good enough for battle Jokic... Its really interesting what i read here! He is one of the best player in the League and one of the best Center. He is still 23! I am really confused what i am reading here! He is scoring, he plays defense and he is playmaking! Thats not enough for a lot of guys here!
Alright, let me try to do a better job at making my point then. You can remove both his best and worst performances and his percentage still goes down. Or cut off the top 25% and bottom 25% performances and only keep the middle ones, and his percentage goes down. Or just look at his median performance, that percentage is much lower than his average. Or another way to look at it is that he's shot 0% in over half his games this season. 2/3rd of his total games are below his season average. Not all shooters have variance that looks like this, which is what I'm trying to convey. If we're going into a game, the most likely outcome by far is that he's going to shoot very poorly from the 3 point line. And that's not a typical thing to see from a 35% shooter. The degree to which his mean performance is propped up by high end outliers is unusual, and the high end outliers help his overall percentage a lot more than the low end outliers hurt him. Pick any other 35% three point shooter and I would bet they have not shot 0% in over half their games. That is my issue with his three point shooting. I just don't know if he's there yet, and it's why I'm conflicted on him taking those shots.
Ha ha! We forced you to make an actual argument. This looks much better. I agree that he is not a 35% 3 pt shooter. It would be extremely surprising if he improved that much. And all the other points are well made. I always thought he is struggling psychologically with the free throws and 3pt. He keeps them in his head. For the first time, this year, it looks like he is cleared up in the head with free throws. And there is the instant improvement there. With the 3 pt shot, he started the season as if he got his confidence, but lost it again when he started not to make shots. And I think he is even afraid to take a second 3 when he misses the first. That's part of why he has a lot of 0% games. Well, I think we'll have to wait for next summer for another major improvement. But I'd still prefer he shoots them, assuming he'll end up in the 30-33 range. Some other related points are: - we have a rather small sample size, potentially he could go even below 30%, or establish himself at 33% - 9 out of his 57 3s are with 0-4 sec left on the time clock. If you take them out, he is shooting 37.5%. We really don't want him to shoot that many at the end of shot clock. - he is 32.6% on wide open 3s. -
Adams said it more succinctly and with more humor than I did, but to all you haters, let it be known that we we said the same thing. You may now inundate me with rep and frequent quotes of this post from now until Sengun's HOF induction.
Alperen Şengün joins Zach Lowe and addresses how he feels about the media including him in Giannis grade packages -I am not worried about it at all. I'm having a great season. Nothing can affect me right now. Especially what social media. -I think they [organization] trusts me right now. I give my [best] for this team. _______________ Jabari “you know what I’m sayin’” Smith taught Alpi his English, you know what I’m sayin’? Says he learned English from his American gf. -says John Lucas was his coach most of the time -says there was no real defensive game plan for him his first 2 years -says he no longer talks to the ball -(flamingo shot) sometimes when close to the rim, I feel too strong to shoot with both legs. -(thought about all-NBA?) one of my goals, being one of the best 15. I want to win. All-star, All-NBA, other stuff will come after that. _______________
Reed said “like” >25 times in 20 seconds. we gotta teach this younger social media generation how to talk properly
This seems overly complicated when saying his past results indicate there should be regression is so much easier. Until he has a larger sample showing 35%, I won't believe it. He just hasn't shot enough 3s this season to put together much weight into the sample. I hate cherrypicking and overreacting to small samples. Granted, I'm not immune to small samples getting me. One of my favorite things is when people use a small sample to prove something...say FVV is a horrible shooter based on 25 games, and the previous games don't matter because this shows a downward trend. 25 games later, I may mention that FVV is shooting 38% from 3s over his last 25 games. It is just funny to me how many of the 25 games is enough crowd from earlier in the year want to use 50 games now, but the previous data is still not admissible. I am a big fan of dunksandthrees as they do the regression for you but also show inseason data such that one can look if there is a possible change in skill before it is statistically relevant (i.e., stats often lag on when a change has occured).
