Holy, are we quoting Kalshi to make our point? Its a prediction market, most surely journalists with a ballot dont even know what Kalshi is. I love Reed, happy to see him thrive, but sheeesh
Are you suggesting that Castle is what we wish Amen could be? I would say, Spurs fans wish Castle was on Amen's level. In fact, one of the reasons I don't think Castle would thrive on the Rockets is that we have Amen who can do everything Castle can do and better.
This has always been the answer to Castle vs Reed in the draft. Tari can also do everything better than Castle.
Castle has been better than Amen in terms of playmaking, Castle has been the primary playmaker for the Spurs this season when Wemby isnt playing. Castle is also the better spacer, shooting 29% from 3 which is extremely bad but still better than Amen's 18%. 28-32% is Giannis territory, everybody knows its bad but you still need to guard him. 18% teams are gonna want you to shoot every time and will just build a wall. In terms of potential Amen is several levels above Castle, but this year Castle has been more effective in terms of actual play IMO. They are both elite POA defenders but Castle is not only the primary or secondary playmaker he is also more efficient at 60% TS. Not sure what is wrong with Amen but somehow he hasnt taken that massive leap we expect and even regressed a little compared to last year IMO.
Amen has regressed because we’re forcing him to play out of position. Having said that, the other 31 teams including the Spurs would choose Amen over Castle.
Amen's shooting efficiency last season was about the same as Castle this season. For some reason, Amen's shooting has regressed so far this season. I have a lot of confidence that his shooting will bounce back to at least as good as last season. His much better FT% means that he has worked on his shooting mechanics and shooting touch. Castle's assists count is higher than Amen. But his usage is also much higher. Amen shares playmaking with Sengun and Durant. Even so, Amen's A/TO ratio is higher and despite lower usage his WS is much higher than Castle. I wouldn't say Castle is a better playmaker. Both guys are still young and learning the trade. While Castle is a good defender, Amen is elite. Simply put, second year Amen is a rich man's second year Castle.
Few people think Jabari is better than Paolo and Chet at this point of their careers. But some people believe Jabari is the best value among the three. Assuming they have more or less reached their respective ceilings, I'd say Banchero is the worst value. Both Chet and Paolo are making the max. But Chet's skillset fits nicely as a second or third wheel. He also can fill the first wheel role if something happens to their franchise player. Paolo on the other hand fits only as the alpha dog. But he's not the top tier superstar that can lead his team to championship unless he is surrounded with a lot of great role players. If I had a choice, I'd take Chet over Paolo. Jabari has the least star power. But he is making about half of what the other two make. His skillset fits pretty much in any system and any star player. A choice between Jabari and Chet would be a hard one. Chet is clearly the better player. But the contract difference is huge. And injury risk is still a concern. My hunch is that Jabari will have a longer productive career and will be easier to trade if necessary. Again, this is assuming they have reached their ceilings. But anyone of them can still take a leap.
This sounds a lot more reasonable. This year has been really strange for the fanbase. More development from 3 players, Top 5 in both offense and defense and yet the fanbase still seems unsettled. This team could win a cheeky title like the Bucks or Raptors did. But it isnt currently a title contender in the vein of the 2018 Rockets squad or those Warriors or current Nuggets/Thunder.
It comes down to injuries, again I think he should not just be limited in his comparisons to his draft class only. There are tons of bigger forwards coming out of drafts before and after him.
I am talking offensively and I am saying Stephon Castle is objectively a better offensive player so far this season. Castle plays in a very potent three guard lineup so I can certainly see how that could juice the numbers but he is objectively better offensively. It's not just the scoring numbers/efficiency but the playmaking. Amen is still better overall right now, but the Rockets could really use that type of playmaking.
Amen will be a much better playmaker if Ime can clear up the obvious issues we have with spacing. The Durant iso heavy offense that results in a mid-level jumper does not lend itself to a drive and dish offense. Amen is the only one on this team that has demonstrated the ability to drive to the basket. This offense is in the same quandary as last year. The only player that could drive to the hoop was Jalen and he was not good at finishing. Amen has not been finishing either, but most observers and coaches are pretty confident he won’t continue to miss layups all year. I think it is a combination of the pressure of learning the position and confidence. Amen is not immune to pressure as a first year starter at the PG position and one in which much of our championship aspirations lies. Thankfully, Ime and the FO are sticking to their guns and giving him the time to adjust. If they can get Durant to take more opportunities to spot up and not dominate the ball the passing lanes will be more wide open. Durant is taking the fewest 3’s of his career on a team that specifically needed him to provide spacing. So far, he is providing the opposite.
The Rockets issues with spacing are Amen and Okogie. Okogie can make open threes, but he doesn't really draw the defense to improve spacing. The obvious answer is to play Reed in the starting lineup. I was very hesitant to want to remove Okogie for defensive reasons, but he's the only one at this point that can be removed to improve spacing.
I think removing Durant for Reed to get that sweet 134 offensive rating is a small-sample-size issue.
Being top 5 in both offense and defense shows how much actual talent is on this roster.... but that's where it ends, with talent. #2 in the league in isolation possessions. (behind James Harden's Clippers), while being 22nd in points per possession on those plays and the 7th most frequent turnovers. #2 in the league in post up possessions (another type of isolation), 17th in points per possession. 13th most frequent turnovers. #28 in the league in off screen plays, 6th in points per possession. 24th most frequent turnovers. #26 in the league in pick and roll plays, 28th in points per possession. 3rd most frequent turnovers.. #22 in spot up shots, 26th in points per possession. 16th most frequent turnovers. They just don't have any structure to the offense ... You want the ball in your best players hands, but you don't want them working so hard to do it - make it easy for them. Run some action that free's them up with easy catches. Durant at the FT line is money, Durant dribbling 15 seconds to get there isn't. Can Any of the guards run a pick and roll ?!?
If there’s one thing I’ll concede in the Castle v Amen debate is…the fundamental hoops development that goes on in a big time D1 program (U Conn won a lot when Castle was there) compared to G League or OTE is night and day. Amen knows a lot about basketball, is super smart, and is an otherworldly athlete, but he’s behind the curve when he can’t play on instincts alone. He’ll get there. But as I’ve said in other threads, Ime is a bad developmental coach.
Interesting stat about points off screens. The problem there is the 2 players most capable of scoring off screens are also bench players. It seems like they should spam Adams screens when Reed or Aaron is in the game?
