I was thinking of a comp earlier, that Sheppard is essentially a mini Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton was never good at getting to the basket but he's great in the open floor and a dangerous shooter/passer who doesn't let you rest. Now that his 3pt shot is highly respected and when the team put 4 shooters around him, his finishing leveled up because they had the most spacious paint in the NBA on offense and they attacked defenders on their heels relentlessly before the defense set. They had some of the highest turnover numbers in the NBA, but their offense was one of the best and their assists far outweighed the turnovers. That's called risk, take note Ime. His 3PT shot is the heart and center of Reed's game. Off that shot, he can attack defenders who guard him too closely. Off those attacks, he can either stop n pop or dish to the corner or go all the way. That's a complete offensive game but it's dependent on his 3pt% being scary. On defense is where I would study how expertly Carlisle was able to hide Haliburton so well. People thought he actually improved defensively but Pacers fans will tell you otherwise. The calibre of player he was defending got worse actually. He was just hidden on the worst offensive player very often and in that role he was able to cheat a little off his man to be a disruptor on other plays. That's kind of where I see Reed going in his career and it's actually a perfect player for our team.
His name is not “Colby”. He is worse defensively than Sheppard. He isn’t “hunted”? The Bulls defensively as a team is bottom 20% in defense. White isn’t a good player. He has empty stats on a bad team.
There really isn't a single metric one can point to that actually suggests the team performs worse defensively with Sheppard on the floor. In fact almost all of them say he is very good defensively, particularly since the first week when he was actually terrible. I don't really believe that he is that valuable, but there's certainly no tangible data to suggest he's a liability right now. People will see a of blow byes, or getting beat in the paint and get hung up on it. He will be on the floor for 50 defensive possessions or more, and in most of them what a player is or isn't doing won't be observable to the casual viewer. Even on the plays he does get beat one on one, it isn't as if we would have stopped them 100% of the time with a better defender. Will teams eventually find a way to turn him into an actual liability, time will tell, but he certainly isn't one right now. Him and his teammates do a good job of minimizing issues he may have. As he gets older and stronger, I really hope he starts using his body defensively more. He really seems allergic to putting his chest on somebody and getting in their kitchen. Even if they get by you at least make them a little less comfortable.
I'm not a big watcher of Bulls games, but the Bulls having so many bad defenders would seem to make it unnecessary to hunt any specific player.
Coby can stay in front of his man and doesn't get burnt laterally like Reed...let's see how Reed hold his own tonight when the Nuggets run action to get switches with Reed on their primary ball handlers on offense. We gonna try to hide ride on the corner by having him guard Watson, Cam Johnson, or Tim Hardaway Jr.
You are correct - that is the point I was making. White hasn't been hunted this season because of injury and because the Bulls are bad defensively. White is a bad defender. He has increased his effort but his instincts and physical tools are not good.
White isn't guarding anyone half the time - he doesn't properly switch or rotate, he can be exploited easily at an angle and he isn't very strong. He is a genuinely poor defender across the board. Sheppard struggles in certain matchups but excels in others and causes disruption in transition and in the paint. The defensive issues with Sheppard have been greatly exaggerated on this board. He isn't Amen or Castle defensively, but he makes up for most of his issues by anticipation, playing angles well - strong hands and a good vertical. He isn't ever going to be a great defender, but he isn't anywhere close to the bottom of the league defensively at the point position. He needs to be more consistent though.
FVV on the floor moves Amen off the ball .... I think this shows he's much better there. He's down from last year in literally every statistical category that matters .... shooting %, Turnovers, blocks, steals & rebounds, eFG% and TS% while playing ~4-5 more minutes a game and taking 4 more FG attempts per. The Rockets need a point guard, but Amen isn't it (at least for now), they need Reed to develop or....
..or just start Reed and let Reed be the point. I love FVV, but I think Reed is a better offensive PG at the moment (and probably overall). When Reed has started, he's been played more like I expect the Rockets would play FVV in the current lineup (just get the ball to Durant and Sengun). I think FVV is better at that part of the offense, but does not have the on-ball abilities of Reed and isn't as good a shooter. I think the main point of paying FVV as much as he was originally and then to entending him was to bridge the gap until the Rockets had a young starter caliber PG. I think the Rockets are there, but may need FVV off the bench in the future.
If you exclude Sengun, KD, Jabari, FVV, Amen, Adams, DFS and Reed the next two contracts are Capela at $6.7m and Tari at $5.67m. Literally everyone else is on a minimum deal. If you send out two players, you have to leave room to sign a minimum contract to fill the 14th spot or have another player via trade. At a minimum, that's $2,296,274 that must be accounted for. You do have $1,255,588 between you and the apron. $6,000,000 $5,675,766 ---------------- $11,675,766 +$1,255,588 ---------------- $12,931,354 -$2,296,274 ---------------- $10,635,080 is the exact dollar amount Tari and Clint allow you. Here's a list of all NBA guards and their contracts - find someone who fits that salary slot that can help - that's available. 2025 Guard Cap Hit Rankings
Well, I did say "they need Reed to develop or" with nothing after the or .... because I really don't see many alternatives. So we don't disagree really.
I agree +/- numbers don't tell us a lot. See my sig: "If we have data, let's look at data. If all we have are opinions, let's go with mine."
Report from the Nuggets game: Not gonna spend a lot of time on this one. Clearly a bad shooting night for Reed, at least in his first stint. He seems to be having trouble with runners in particular, gauging how much his forward motion will affect the shot. Given his misses, it was notable that he kept shooting and even more notable that they kept throwing him the ball. There seems to have been a shift toward "let's rely on this guy more" or at least "let's get him going." I found myself watching Okogie more. His defense is so good that when his shot is falling, that plus his hustle plays on offense makes him a stronger contributor than Sheppard even when he's defending competently, as he was in this game. I had no serious complaints with Reed's diligence and footwork on defense, and it's good to see him maintaining this level for a second straight game. But his limited reach is still a problem. His closeouts on 3's were largely ceremonial. Okogie always makes a difference. With 4:30 left in the 4th, Ime sent in Amen and pulled Sheppard, not Okogie. That seemed like the right call, since Sheppard wasn't hitting his shots and Okogie was having one of his best offensive nights. But then at 2:45, Ime pulled Okogie and sent Sheppard back in. And then Okogie hardly saw the floor again. So here's the part where (like most of you now and then ) I complain about getting what I wanted. I'm glad the coaches are giving Reed more crunch time, and the fact that they sent him back in shows Ime is rewarding him not for scoring or steals but for basic defensive diligence, i.e., staying in front of his man and keeping the defense intact. But man, on a night when Okogie is giving us this much, I'd like to see him rewarded the way Holiday gets rewarded when he's lighting it up.
I don't see him as that level of passer. Reed is averaging 4.5 assists per 36 minutes and 6.2 assists per 100 possessions. Even in his rookie season, Haliburton was well above those numbers. Reed's numbers are much closer to a young Fred VanVleet. That's still my comp. I think Reed could possibly be a better scorer than Fred, his jump shot will likely be better (though Fred actually shot 41% from three his first two seasons combined, so there's no guarantee here). Reed is also a little taller and definitely more athletic vertically, which should help him get cleaner looks, especially around the rim. Here were Fred's numbers and accolades during his peak, age 25-29 seasons: 1x All-Star 1x NBA Champion 18.8 points / 7.0 assists / 4.1 rebounds / 2.3 stocks / 40% / 37% / 87% shooting I can see Reed having better shooting percentages and scoring volume than Fred did, maybe even into the low to mid 20 points range in the best case scenario. This would be ceiling kind of stuff, mind you. Right now his median outcome is probably in the range of 4th/5th starter or 6th man.
Because he's a shooter, I suspect that he has seldom been asked to be a passer most of his life. But he has great court vision, better than everyone on our roster except maybe Sengun. A lot of Reed's passes are right on point, just the right force at the right spot. I'm not worried about him being a good passer. He already has shown that he is. His problem as a playmaker are twofold: 1. Decision making. He often can't decide when to shoot and when to pass. His tendency is overpassing in an unproductive way, simply deferring to other players at higher pecking orders. Yet, I'm sure the coaching staff are telling him to shoot more. So he's kind of fighting between two forces in him. 2. Understanding play development. He is still not very good at using his scoring gravity to draw the defense and get his teammates open looks. This is what a good NBA playmaker should be able to do. Both of these problems can be solved by more experience. It a mental learning, not physical skill.
