I don’t think Altuve at 2nd base for 100 games is a big deal. He has Walker to his left and Pena to his right. Correa is a very good third basemen. Overall the infield defense is very good. I am far more concerned with keeping Altuve fresh by playing him 130 games. He can still hit well, he just wears down.
Is Donovan an upgrade over Polanco? Will mariners be better?. Especially if they lose suarez this off-season. You have to figure Raleigh had his best season.
This will be the year that decides the future of Brown and Pena and others. If they are out of it by the break they likely shift to a rebuild. As for the outfield - their infield is amazing but the outfield has holes. Cole/Melton/Matthews likely will be given CF. If they keep Cam Smith, he may get RF. They will be signing or trading for a LF - but they initially wanted to address SP first. I don’t know if that’s the case at this point, I suspect they are just waiting for more activity around the league so they can make moves.
I think overall Donovan is an upgrade but not by a huge amount. Raleigh likely had a career year but those pitchers should bounce back. The M’s will be good.
At this point I would be happy to trade Walker for Senga and eat a little bit of Walker's salary. Then sign JV in FA.
If Jorge Polanco is worth $20M/yr in free agency then I would imagine there’s a team willing to give up a lot for Isaac Paredes or take on 2/3 of Walker’s contract. Make one of those moves, bring in O’Hearn to play corner OF, sign a couple of SP you can rely on to pitch 5+ each turn, and let’s see what happens. If Houston ends up cheating out on SP, Andrew Heaney, Lucas Giolito, and Jordan Montgomery are guys I think could end up being bargains.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/mariners-giants-front-runners-for-brendan-donovan.html The prospects being mentioned give Donovan a very high price. For Houston it would mean something like Brice Matthews and Anderson Brito. That’s a big big cost for a guy who’s never hit more than 14 HR in a season.
I wonder if this is going to be another year, where we wait and wait while all the guys we think were possible additions dwindle down and we sign a few journeymen and hope we can coach them up. I think you can only go to that well so often. I guess we have a chance by just running it back and Alvarez, Correa, and Altuve stay healthy. We did have a playoff worthy record even with Paredes and Alvarez missing significant time. It also makes me wonder if they are just waiting for the deadline to start the re-build and take advantage of the year off in 27. I’m curious who you and @Nook think we are still in play for.
I’m guessing Kelly probably had a preference to be in AZ and another team would need to make a topping bid. I’m also guessing we have the same situation with JV for the Astros. I need a trade to be announced. Edit: Among JV, Giolito, Heaney and Montgomery, who would you prefer assuming we pay whetaver is market for them.
I will be very disappointed if they don't get more pitching. I want to preface this by saying I do not expect it and the chances are small, but not zero. Lance McCullers Jr was injured all 2019. He came back in 2020 and had a very subpar year. Then in 2021 he started 28 games and struck out 185 batters in 162.2 innings with a 3.16 ERA for 3.2 fWAR. 2026 will be his age 32 season. There is a world where he CAN approach that: 20gs 110ip 120k's 3.40era = 2.0 WAR and is healthy in October. In 2022, at the age of 25 Cristian Javier: 25gs 134.1ip 173k's 2.68era = 3.4 fWAR Remember August 29, 2025 when he pitched 6 no-hit innings? Coming back from injury he was a shell of himself, but he did give up 3 or fewer earned runs in 6 of 8 starts, did not give up more than 4 in any. There is hope. Isn't it feasible that in his age 29 season he can: 25gs 125ip 150k's 3.25era = 2.5 WAR ? In 2024, as a 24 yr old, Spencer Arrighetti had the following second half: 11gs 65ip 78k's 3.18era = 1.0 fWAR If you flush 2025 as an injury riddled season where he simply never got on track, isn't it reasonable that at age 26 he can: 25gs 140ip 165k's 3.35era = 2.5 WAR ? Of course the biggest issue with those is the lack of 6+ innings starts, but that's baseball in 2025/6 and why the A.J. Blubaugh's of the baseball world, who can pitch 2-3 innings out of the bullpen, are important. On a side note, unless they can consistently give you 6+ innings, you can't go with a 6 man rotation. You will exhaust the bullpen So, then you have 4 starting pitchers who have stuff to K over a batter per inning with a sub 3.50 ERA for the postseason. You just need to get there. Thats why you have Jason Alexander, Ryan Weiss, Colton Gordon, andcJ.P. France to help get you through 162 games. But to be real, and to your point: IF that all happened, I would be fine with the 2026 starting pitching. Of course I would be happier if those 3 were numbers 3, 4, and 5 rather than 2, 3, and 4. And I would be happier still if they could be ONLY 3 and 4 allowing for one of them to get injured without devastating the season Trade for a #2 Let Javier, Arrighetti, and McCullers compete for #3 and 4 Sign JV to be #5 Alexander, Weiss, Gordon, Ullola, France are injury replacements. As long as Brown and the #2 stay healthy there is enough quality and depth to win.
I don’t have any inside info at all but I think Houston is still engaged in trade talks for several SP, namely Peralta, Ragans, Smith, Bubic, Rasmussen, Pepiot, and Baz. It seems like Alcantara, Ryan, and Lopez have been taken off the market and Houston hasn’t been linked to Gore, Cabrera, Pivetta, or Keller. Even tho we are halfway into December the offseason is still pretty young. Cease and Kelly are the only big FA SP who’ve come off the board. The next 2 weeks are going to be busy and I think we will see some good value in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of the FA SP market once teams start running out of money and rotation spots.
I would only remove LMJ from your analysis. I’m not actually disagreeing with you, I just think his chances are so low it can’t be measured in any meaningful way as an actual potential scenario, even though it is. Objectively, Javier and Arrighetti absolutely can hit the marks you identified. Age and talent are there. Our season might turn on those two arms.
I have no idea what those guys prices will be. I would love JV at $12M but not at $16M. Heaney and Montgomery should be pretty cheap ($6M or less) and I like them a lot in that price range, but I have no idea what Giolito will cost. I am pretty bad at predicting what free agents will sign for.
We are all bored and beating the dead horse of roster analysis and copium. Generally I agree with you. If they only bring in 1 good SP then it’s easy to be convinced that there’s enough upside between the existing options (Javier, Arrighetti, McCullers, Weiss, Blubaugh, France, Alexander, Gordon, Ullola, Pearson) that the 3-5+ spots will be pretty good. My main worry about that outcome is that even though the odds are high at least 3 of those guys will be productive, Houston could easily dig itself into a hole figuring out which ones are good. The reality is they need to add 2 pitchers who project to be better than Javier.
