2022: 106 wins and won the World Series 2023: 90 wins and lossed game 7 of the ALCS 2024: 88 wins and swept in the Wild Card round 2025: 87 wins and missed the playoffs
I think the Mets losing Alphonso, and to a slightly lesser extent, Diaz, increases the likelihood they make a big push for Kyle Tucker. Also Framber Valdez but that doesn't impact this thought. This reinforces my thoughts that big market teams are going to have a bidding war and Kyle will get a contract north of $300M and $400M is not unlikely. Hopefully the teams that miss out ( or the Mets just because they missed Pete) consider Walker. But I am thinking more and more that Isaac will be traded out of necessity based on what I am hearing/reading.
A Paredes trade might return a SP2, while a Walker trade will not. A Walker trade may have to include outgoing $$$ and likely would not return MLB or MLB ready talent.
The organization has been riding the wave set in place by Luhnow for the past five seasons. Now their homegrown stars have gone elsewhere, for the most part. The depleted farm system and bad signings have pushed things to the brink of going back to a rebuild
Hopefully trading Walker would clear up enough money to make a move or two. I'm thinking Walker 2-40 for Senga 2-28. Or Walker eating 10 mil to the Pirates for Burrows.
Trading Walker is a bandaid, but since the team is already looking to add a bat separate of this issue, its unlikely to hurt the chances of winning in 2026. He is unlikely to bring back any impactful players or even give significant payroll relief. It would simply be a trade fix a logjam of players on the roster. Trading Paredes hurts 2026. Similar to the Tucker trade, the players the Astros receive are unlikely to be fully established or at their peaks. However it should help the future. Paredes should bring back a similar return to Tucker ( maybe Tucker-lite)- a top prospect and 2 other players who are either high volatility lottery ticket type prospects or young MLBers who project to be average but legitimate players. My bet is that its Isaac who gets traded. My hope is that in 2027 or 2028 we are very happy with the return and helps to keep the window open another 4-5 years. Of course, a good and healthy season in 2026 from Yordan, Altuve, Correa, and Walker would completely camouflage Isaac being gone too.
I know I’m probably too optimistic, but I also may be just higher on our young players, Cole,Smith, and Blubaugh than others. I really don’t want to trade Paredes, Smith, Pena, or Cole. Myers, Matthews, maybe Melton for an SP3 or Hader and Walker to Mets for prospects and sign a FA pitcher and we’re set to go for 26. I think we will be better positioned for a soft re-build in 28 or 29. By then, I think Dana will have our farm system in good shape.
Astros actually have a pretty strong group of ready or near-ready young players who could open/re-open the window in Smith, Matthews, Cole, Melton, Dezenzo, Blubaugh, Arrighetti, Ullola, and Pecko. The problem is they have to play in order to find out if they are good enough. Almost every player struggles in their first stint: Springer had a 33% k rate as a rookie. Altuve didn’t post a 3 win season until his 4th year in the majors. Bregman started with an 0 for twentysomething slump. Tucker was below replacement level his debut season. So was Dallas Keuchel. (Correa and Yordan were badass right away.) It’s really hard to thread the needle of developing young players in the majors while also contending for championships.
??? A year ago, Paredes (with 3 years of control) plus Cam Smith and Wesneski were equal in value to Tucker. Paredes wasn't even the most valuable piece of that trade. Now Paredes alone with 1 less year of control and coming off a major injury should also bring back something similar in value to Tucker?
That's why getting Tolle and some filler would be amazing for Paredes. Getting two top 50 prospects for 1 year of Tucker is pretty good. We also got three quarters of a season of all star production
I, too, am optimistic about the young players. I don't want to trade Walker OR Paredes. I think Paredes is exactly what the offense needs and I think Walker will out produce whatever return is in a trade, especially if significant $$$ are eaten. I think if the organization: Rest Walker and Altuve occasionally as older players. Even just a day off every other week. Play Yordan and Altuve 40 games each in LF Play Correa 10 games at SS and 10 games off. Give Yordan 10 days off. Paredes 13 games at 1B 53 games at 2B 20 games at 3B 50 games at DH 133 games if everyone stays healthy and a legitimate MLB starter replacing an injury to Walker, Altuve, Pena, Correa, or Yordan.
Agreed. I just think Paredes is an excellent bridge with his relative youth and the ability to extend him at a reasonable contract and get Brantley or better production. If it is a choice between trading our best young prospects to build up our pitching rotation or Pena or Alvarez, I’m trading Pena or Alvarez. I’d prefer a soft re-build than going all in this year.
Good point on Walker relative to the portion of his salary we'd have to eat. I saw Goldschmidt getting consideration, I don't think he was much better than walker. Is it possible that walkers first half was due to rushing back from oblique injury? Is the 2nd half more indictive of what we can expect from him. It may be a matter of piecing it together in the regular season and rolling with our best batters in the playoffs. Use defensive substitutions at the end of the game.
How did Paredes go from 3 years of control to "less than 1 year of control" in less than 1 year ( trade was 12/13/3024)? Isaac has 2 seasons of control. He is entering his age 27 season and coming off of a 2.5 fWAR year in a bit less than 2/3 of a season. He average 3.3 fWAR per season 2022-2024 and was on pace for 4.2 fWAR when he got hurt in July. Its not unrealistic to think he can get 6 WAR for a new team, even 2 seasons of 2.5 WAR at arbitration salary has lots of value. A top prospect and 2 lottery tickets or complementary MLBers is far from unreasonable. Like I said " Tucker-lite"
