96 hours is so much more exciting than 4 days. I think fans generally tend to overvalue what we know/have. If we had landed Cole Ragans in the Tucker package instead of cam smith, everybody would be saying it is insane to even consider dealing a TOR arm for an unproven rookie that tanked in the second half.
Right. Ragans has more value now than Tucker had this time last season (with 3 seasons of control vs 2 and a locked in low salary for 2 of them, while projecting for similar production). So building even an equivalent package would mean something like Smith, Arrighetti (as a Wesneski proxy), and Meyers (as a Paredes proxy), and I still don’t think that’d be enough.
Fair point, but I still cannot imagine that Astros fans would be clamoring to deal Ragans for Cam Smith, Jake Meyers and a prospect given the current state of the team and need for high end SP. We got candidates to fill in behind Jake and we can sign OF help. All the high end SP come with QOs.
He pitched 130+ ip in 2022 and 120+ ip in 2023 then 180+ ip in 2024. Last season is the only one in the last 5 where he missed the bulk of a season due to injury. He got called up in August of 2022; he didn’t go on the injured list until May of 2025 (outside of a 3 day stint in Oct of 2022). This year he missed 2 weeks with a groin strain and 12 weeks with a rotator cuff strain. So he’s had all of ONE significant injury in 5 MLB seasons.
You can keep moving the goalposts if you want but your point will still be wrong. Hes only had 2 full seasons in the bigs, one in which he threw 180 innings and the other he was hurt. Minor league pitchers rarely throw >130 innings. Guess how many Astros pitchers threw >130 innings in the minors last season? ZERO. Ragans’ medicals should be thoroughly reviewed because a rotator cuff injury is serious. But that is one injury in the last 5 seasons, labeling him as “oft-injured” or not durable is just silly.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/padres-trade-rumors-nick-pivetta-jake-cronenworth.html Astros get: SP Nick Pivetta IF/OF Jake Cronenworth Padres get: 1B Christian Walker SP Spencer Arrighetti Astros get a ToR SP and a versatile lefty bat and only add about $12M in 2026 payroll. Padres shed a lot of medium/long term payroll and get a potential building block SP (as well as a potential rebound bat). Theres a good amount of risk with Pivetta because of his opt out. Cronenworth’s contract is underwater but it’s spread out so it’s not overly onerous. This would leave Houston with about $15M in available payroll which would go up to about $25M if they traded Sanchez and Meyers. Their main holes would be a backup C and maybe another SP. if they went cheap on backup C (Rule 5) they might be able to afford a pretty good FA SP like Kelly. Potential roster: SS Pena 1B Paredes DH Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve LF Cronenworth C Diaz RF Smith CF Cole Bench: Matthews, Allen, Cerda, Melton SP: Brown, Pivetta, Kelly, Javier, Weiss, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Pearson, Sousa, Okert, De Los Santos
Do the Astros look into Keibert Ruiz? Long commitment but only $7M AAV He was a top prospect who was solid as a rookie then fell apart but is still only 27. He is a switch hitter who still hits well vs LHP so make stop switch hitting or schedule his starts to avoid bad match ups. Similarly, his pitch blocking was good and took a dive. His framing is his weakness but that's less important with the challenge system starting. He throws well. Fangraphs actually projects him for 93 wRC+ and 9.6 WAR in 320PAs. For a catcher that's not the end of the world. Walker for Ruiz? Saves $13M in 2026 and 2027. Adds $7M 2028, 2029, and 2030. Maybe that's not ideal but worry about 2028 in 2028 and $7M is much easier to eat if our new catching coach can't fix him. Back up catcher and a spot for Paredes to play are solved and they have $13M more to spend.
Why would the Nats trade for Christian Walker? One idea I had was to trade for Abrams and either shop Pena or shift Abrams to 2B/OF, essentially use him like you’d use Brendan Donovan.
You are right. I am a season late. This time last year they were hoping to add talent and try to contend but now they are back to a full on rebuild. I was just looking at bad contracts that actually fill a hole.
Taking a package of Ruiz along with Gore could help minimize the cost of acquiring Gore though. Prospect cost would still hurt, but the salary of Ruiz/Gore would still be cheaper than buying a number 2 in FA.
Astros get: SP Mackenzie Gore IF CJ Abrams C Keibert Ruiz Nats get: OF Cam Smith IF Brice Matthews SP Spencer Arrighetti P Miguel Ullola C Walker Janek Astros get 3 controllable affordable core pieces. Nats get 5 of the Astros ~7 most valuable long term assets. Astros would have ~$20M to go into free agency to add another SP, $30M if they traded Meyers and Sanchez. Roster: CF Abrams DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa SS Pena 2B Altuve 1B Walker RF Cole C Diaz Bench: Allen, Ruiz, Dezenzo, Melton SP: Brown, Gore, Verlander, Javier, Weiss, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Pearson, Okert, Sousa, Ort
Flip Pena/Meyers/Sanchez for a young elite RH bullpen piece, along with prospects, and let Abrams play SS. You have money for RF and another starter. Let Cole/Melton battle it out for CF.
