If you look at the baseball savant page and the 2nd half last year, I think its even money Walker can at least hit the average of 2024 and 2025.
I don't know about anyone else but I'm far too anxious for the winter meetings. Here's to some clarity with our roster going forward.
Winter meetings were hugely important for Houston last year. They probably make the playoffs in 2025 if they don’t trade Tucker.
We make the playoffs if a lot of things don't happen. We were solid and that trade was fine. Fingers crossed for some more good decisions.
What's interesting is how it doesn't seem as clear now that we are necessarily better off. With Wesneski injured, uncertainty about paredes health and if Cam is ready. We'd get a pick for tucker and would've plugged in CC eventually at 3rd. We missed the playoffs so it's hard to argue. Here's to paredes health and Wesneski returning this season.
It takes a long time to assess trades and draft picks. For a team that acquires a recently drafted prospect it could take 5+ years to know how they came out. Houston almost certainly “won” the trade as they only probably cost themselves 2-3 wins in 2025 and they will certainly get a lot more than that in the future out of the 3 guys they got. But yeah with Smith’s slump in the 2nd half and Wesneski/Paredes being hurt, the trade doesn’t look as good as it did.
I could be way off base here, but I think Brown will have a hard time trading Cam. That was kinda his marquee roster shaping move . . . and to back up and 180 a year later . . . I just don't see it.
Yup. Flipping 1 year of Tucker into an all star appearance from Paredes and a cy young from Ragans (with both getting QO picks on their way out) would be a genius GM move.
My bar for if the offseason is successful: Javier needs to be the 4th best SP There need to be 6 hitters better than Walker/Diaz/Meyers/Cole/Smith/Sanchez There need to be 3 RP better than Okert/Sousa/King The backup C needs to be better than Salazar If they do all 4 of those, their offseason grade will be an A. A+ if they do it without going over the CBT and without trading away any prospects who haven’t yet played in AA/AAA.
This would be amazing but I think a bit unrealistic. 1) Javier absolutely could be #3. For me, I do not see them getting 2 more SP unless they trade from the current projected rotation. Because of this I see Brown and X as #1 and #2, then, Most likely, Javier and Arrighetti as #3 and #4 I just don't see a scenario where those 2 are still in the organization but not the MLB rotation. You add Weiss who was told a rotation spot is his to lose and that's 5. Then you have McCullers who must either be the #6 starter or #8 in the bullpen that you don't have in a 6 man rotation. You have Alexander. You have Blubaugh who you want pitching multiple innings which gets harder the more starters you add. 2) Its very likely that Walker, Diaz, or maybe Cole or Smith end up the 6th best hitter on this team. You listed 6 players, 4 of which are most likely to be on the team. It's possible all 6 are. If all 6 are, then there are only 7 other players. You want 6 better? Only 1 worse? The backup catcher will most likely be. It's looking like they want Nick Allen to be a defensive backup to Altuve and Pena. So best case if 4 make it they are #8-11, if all 6 make it they are #6-11 Yordan, Paredes, Correa, and Altuve will almost certainly be in the top 6. Pena should be, but is less certain. That means the team needs at least 2 more good hitters for those guys to all be #7 or worse. I don't see them getting more than one + the backup catcher. And I'm good if this team has 5 guys better than those you listed. 3) I agree about Okert/Sousa/King. Right now Hader and Abreu are clear #1 and #2 and Sousa is 3rd. This isn't great but I'm OK. All they would need to do is add a good RH leverage arm. I am worried the bullpen is overcrowded and I don't understand the hardon they have for De Los Santos but a guy like Jordan Romano should be cheap and fill that hole. You never know with relievers outside of the top 10%. 4) I don't think this is even worth discussing. There is no world it doesn't happen. So I do not expect nearly as many additions as you but I'm OK as long as the 3 or 4 new Astros are the right ones. As for CBT, this would be 3 years in a row of escalating fines and reduced draft picks. I think Crane makes resetting the CBT an absolute.
I think it’s reasonable to expect them to get 3 of those 4 things done. They’ll likely end up either a pitcher (counting on Javier as the SP3) or a hitter (banking on improvement from at least one of Diaz/Walker/Smith) short.
