I know these are hypothetical but I dont understand yalls obsession with trading Paredes. If Casas reverts to some past form? What if Paredes just keeps mashing like he did last year. We have been talking about these different hitters coming here and taking advantage of the Crawford Boxes. Someone finally actually does it and everyone wants to trade him.
Giving Javier an extension looks bad? Man that was coming off the 22 World Series where my man threw a no hitter. I think we were all ecstatic about extending Javier. U cant be mad at Dana cause Javier got injured. Theres no predicting that.
FWIW probably <1% of the trades I propose involve Paredes. I agree with you that Paredes is an important part of Houston’s offense. But Houston has a lack of prospects other teams want and a lack of money so if they want to upgrade their team they will have to deal from the big league roster. Next to Brown and Pena, Paredes has more surplus value than any veteran on their team, so if Houston wants to make a big move, then Paredes is one of the only pieces they have to be able to make that happen. In this case, Duran is the main get, Casas is just an upside throw-in.
A lot of people were ecstatic about the Walker signing too. In today’s game, predicting pitcher injuries is extremely easy: they are very likely to get hurt, no matter who they are. Bottom line is that Javier’s extension bought out 2 free agent years (2026 and 2027) at $21M/yr, and his contract is underwater.
Dana was hired on Jan 26th, Javier signed his contract on Feb 10th...Crane had that already in the works before he hired a GM
Regardless of who signed him. Im sure after winning the World Series and Javier throwing the no hitter in the World Series. I remember no one complaining about it.
Javier's extension was 5 yrs and $64M which looked fantastic at the time and is still fine. He has 2 yrs and $42M left, but only $25.6M counts toward CB (which is all that matters from a baseball standpoint) The past is the past. At this point, no reason to worry about him getting $64M worth of value, just $25.6M in 2026 and 2027. The truth is he has been solid. If he can be average these next 2 years, the contract will have been a good one. Starting pitching is crazy valuable right now meaning if Javier can get 1 WAR for every 10M, it is a good contract. From 2023-2025 he had 3.2 fWAR and 1.7 bWAR so let's say he had 2.5 WAR. He needs 3.9 WAR in 2 seasons to break even, but only 2.6 to make 2026 and 2027 look good. Last year in 8 starts he had 0.9 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR. So let's say 0.5 which is 0.0625 per start. If Astros go with a 6 man rotation, 1/6 of the season is 27 starts. @0.0625 per start that is 1.7 WAR. Even with no improvement from 2025's effectiveness. So he is owed $25.6M and projected for $34M in value the next 2 seasons even if he does not improve from 2025 at all but just stays healthy. IMO the extension was perfect. If you consider a strong possibility of 2 years lost due to injury, right off you need to make the contract long enough for the player to make that up in the remaining years. When the extension was signed, Javier was coming off a 3.5 WAR season (3.6 bWAR and 3.4 fWAR) heading into his age 26 season. A 5yr/$64M extension is great, by my philisophy, it requires him to get at least 6.4 WAR in 3 seasons or 2.13 per. They are paying him $21M for his FA seasons. If they added years, he would continue to need to get 2.13 WAR for the contract to remain above water, but his AAV will rise.
Astros get: SP Drew Rasmussen OF Josh Lowe Rays get: CF Jake Meyers SP Spencer Arrighetti Astros get a controllable #2 SP and a rebound lefty OF bat. Rays get a stud defensive CF that allows them to move Mullins over to LF and field an elite defensive OF; they also add an upside SP in Arrighetti. Houston would still have ~$20M to go get a backup C like Caratini and a 3rd tier SP like Montgomery or Verlander. Roster: SS Pena DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve 1B Walker RF Lowe C Diaz CF Cole Bench: Matthews, Caratini, Allen, Trammell SP: Brown, Rasmussen, Javier, Montgomery, Weiss, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Sousa, Pearson, Okert, De Los Santos
Javier should be much better in yr 2 back from TJ. He's going to give the Stros 150 IP and a 3.50-4.00 era. In other words a SP3. Thing is Espada has to be very careful in how he uses Javier and watching his IP. Unfortunately I dont have much faith in Espada given his track record.
They had a bad yr with injuries last yr. Before that there wasn't an abnormal amount of injuries to the pitching staff.
Odd. Doesn’t make much sense. Not sure how the Astros could afford Cole Ragans or Jared Jones or Shane Smith. Keller isn’t that good and has a significant salary. One thought is maybe Houston is dangling Cam Smith. All 3 of those teams could use a RF.
"The Astros are looking for YOUNG pitching." I call BS on this. The Astros are looking for an established #1 or #2 starter to replace Valdez's innings and wins on a one or two year contract because they can not afford more.
Young is code for cheap Priorities 1) stay under the CBT 2) add to starting pitching 3) stay under the CBT 4) add a catcher 5) stay under the CBT 6) add a left-handed bat. Preferably an OF. 7) stay under the CBT 8) add RH bullpen help.
Astros get: SP Cole Ragans OF Kyle Isbel Royals get: OF Cam Smith OF Jake Meyers SP Spencer Arrighetti Astros get a controllable affordable bonafide ace with injury risk and a 4th OF who bats LH. Royals get a solid CF and a potential superstar RF plus a cheap controllable BoR SP with MoR upside. I think if Houston trades for Ragans or Jared Jones, fans are going to be pretty surprised by how much Houston gives up.
I’m convinced that Cam Smith is going to be a star. I’m not trading him period, especially for a pitcher. I know we need pitching, but at some point we’ve got to let our top prospects break out. I’m hoping both Cam and Cole get solid chances this year.
I have no idea what to expect from him going forward, he won't be as good as he was out of the gate but he won't be as bad as he was over the 2nd half after he hit the proverbial wall. Remember, he was 1 year out of the draft, and defense doesn't slump.
