He had an extremely impressive resume for amateur scouting coming in. But if you analyze all of his draft picks so far with the Astros they are almost universally outperforming their draft slot. It’s too early to tell for sure, but there’s a lot of evidence he really knows what he’s doing when it comes to prospect scouting. I do not necessarily trust him when it comes to free agent signings and hiring coaches. He doesn’t have much of a sample to judge; Hader, Caratini, and Walker are his only significant free agent signings as a GM, and the Hader deal was driven by Crane. Caratini was a good signing and Walker looks like a terrible signing. He also gave Javier an extension which looks bad.
Astros get: SP Mitch Keller C Joey Bart Pirates get: 1B Christian Walker OF Jesus Sanchez P Anderson Brito $16M ($8M 2026, $8M 2027) Seems like a good trade for both sides. The Pirates add 2 quality bats to their lineup without adding any net payroll, plus they add an elite P prospect. Astros add a very good backup C and a solid controllable playoff caliber SP.
This doesn't move the needle for me. Keller does not feel like a #1 or #2. His K/9 has gone from 9.73 to 8.39 to 7.66 the past 3 years. Fangraphs 2026 projections of 7.78 K/9 (158th), 4.15 FIP (98th) and 1.32 WHIP (103rd) all put him outside of the top 1/3 of SP. Definitely not a #1 or #2. It's very possible that he would end up outside of the Astros top 3 and not start a post season game (if they make it) and therefore not be worth his salary. AND PAYING ADDITIONAL MONEY ON TOP OF IT. It's also pertinent to note that his AAV is $15.04M with Pitt. But rises to $18.17M if he is traded. I'm not saying I would be mad but consider it a bad value and would hope the offseason still included getting another BETTER starter and a bat if Walker and Sanchez are gone.
They would definitely need to add another good bat if they made this trade. I’m assuming if Houston makes this trade it’s because they think they can improve Keller, so that’s baked into the price I have them paying.
I can get behind that. Looks like it would raise Astros salary by about $2.5M and raise Pirates by a little less than $1M (depending on Sanchez and Bart's arbitration) Leaves about $20M for Astros to get a hitter and (hopefully) another SP. They also want a RH leverage reliever.
I'm thinking of a potential trade for Jake Meyers. Based strictly on paper: Jake Meyers to Mets for Christian Scott and Dylan Ross Jake: 2 years of control projected 3.0 WAR and $10M salary gives him a trade value of $14M Christian Scott: RH starter. will be his age 27 season. TJS 9/2024 expected healthy for ST Fangraphs #47 overall prospect 2024. Baseball Prospectus #88 in 2024 MLB debut 2024 making 9 starts. Big K stuff - 11.3 K/9 in minors Excellent control - 2.2 bb/9 in minors Not on NYM SP depth chart Not listed as rotation option at mlb.com despite Mets looking to add SP. 7th is best current spot on depth chart. He has been overtaken and Mets spend for veteran SP. TJS is already out of the way. Rare opportunity for Astros to buy low on a high ceiling guy. Projects for about 2 WAR (mostly because not in rotation) and $6M in salary giving trade value of $10M. Dylan Ross RH reliever Will be age 25 season Spent last 2 days of 2025 in MLB but did not get into a game. Mlb.com Mets #20 prospect Fangraphs Mets #23 prospect Huge K stuff- 13.6 K/9 in minors 36.6% of all batters faced in 55 innings. Terrible control - 5.4 bb/9 in minors 65 grade fastball has hit 102 Had TJS in 2023 delaying pro debut. Looks to be projected to be AAAA up and down guy - not major part of Mets plans Projects for 1 WAR and $5M in salary over 6 seasons giving him a trade value of $3M What are your thoughts?
I like the idea of trading for Scott a lot, I believe he could be best SP we could get for Meyers. I am not particularly interested in Ross. Instead I would prefer rookie RH pitching prospects Peter Kussow and/or Camden Lohman. They are a long way off and are high risk but are potentially far higher reward than Ross who I would consider just a toss in..
Ross is not a toss in He is a high variance MLB ready reliever that brings 2 things this team really needs: Rh velocity from the bullpen Bullpen arms with options. I agree his floor is scary but you simply aren't going to get much in addition to Scott and this team needs MLB ready players not guys 3-4 years away who are still teens and haven't even graduated rookie ball. They are do far away, the risk may not be any lesser and neither of them have plus pitches.
So can you come up with a better alternative to Ross? I just do not see any value there and Scott alone is not enough for Meyers.
If I had to predict the trade Houston will make next week, it would be Jake Meyers and Spencer Arrighetti for Drew Rasmussen. It’s a hefty cost but I’d be ok with it.
I actually think Scott and Meyers are pretty close in value. I have Meyers at $14M and Scott at $10M But baseballtradevalues has Jake at $8.9M and Scott at $10.5M So I think holding out for someone "better" than Ross would kill the deal. Contrary to looking for someone value, I am hoping they actually agree to trade Ross. I would not look for a better alternative since I am actively wanting him. As a low value throw in to equalize the value, a guy with a plus plus pitch is perfect. If the Astros can help him develop some control he suddenly becomes the next Bryan Abreu.
