3 of the top 58 picks. Huge huge huge opportunity. Looks like Rome is confirming that Houston went over the CBT in 2025, pushing the QOcomp pick from the 2nd to the 4th rd.
The top 6 picks are lottery. Houston has a 0.34% chance at the 1st pick. I haven’t been able to find the odds for picks 2-6, but my rough guess based on prior years is that the Astros have about a 3% chance of getting one of the top 6 picks. Getting any of those would be an unimaginable boon for Houston. A top 6 pick not only automatically adds one of the likely top 50 prospects in baseball but also bleeds down thru the rest of the draft. It would essentially more than reverse the penalty of losing those 4 picks from the sign stealing.
The official MLB article on the comp picks confirms it. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-competitive-balance-rounds-set-for-2026?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage “Here are the remaining unsigned free agents who declined the QA and what compensation each team stands to get: Phillies – Kyle Schwarber: Pick after Round 4 Phillies – Ranger Suárez: Pick after Round 4 Cubs – Kyle Tucker: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B Astros – Framber Valdez: Pick after Round 4”
I see the story on MLB.com which can't be completed until CBT numbers are final. So the Astros definitely went over. However I can't find any official salary numbers.
By my math Astros Pick 14th ( with microscopic chance of 1st-6th) 28th 59th 89th 119th 133rd (for losing Framber) 158th +30 each additional pick. If they sign King, Ranger Suarez, or Zac Gallen (or any other player who got a Q.O.) they will lose picks #28 and 119 along with $1M in international F.A. money.
By my math 2nd rd pick should be #59 because D'backs will have 1 added in before there when Zac Gallen signs.
On paper that seems like a steep price to pay for signing someone with a QO. Compared to what we get back for Framber.
It's all about keeping teams under the CBT If they had managed to stay under: The pick for losing Framber would be about #30 instead of #133. If they signed a player with a Q.O. attached they would still lose pick #28 but not #119 and only $500K international F A. money, not $1M Incidently, the penalties escalate even more for going over a 3rd year in a row which is why there 0% chance the Astros go over $244M this year. (which is actually a little more than $221M for the 26 man roster when other costs are included)
Except going over the CBT again would be even worse and his contract alone would put them over without filling any other holes.
