According to fangraphs projections, 12 teams do not have a CF projected to have 2.0 WAR, even if given 500 PAs. Phi, Tor, Wa, NYM, Det, Ari, St.L, TB, A's, Cole, K.C , and LAA. Tor and Det have CF with everyday jobs they are likely happy with. Wa, St L, and Col likely don't want to add a guy already into arbitration. A's and LAA probably not interested in giving the Astros pitching even if they have it. KC has a similar player in Isbel and is focused on adding run production in the OF. That leaves 4 teams: Phillies, Mets, D'Backs, and Rays.
I like Eflin because he attacks the zone. I prefer pitchers that can control their stuff in and out of the zone. This is why I don't like Arighetti all that much. in his effort to maximize every pitch, he consistently is throwing pitches that have no chance to fool the batter. Brown was like this as well, but as improved greatly, maybe Spencer can as well, but I will believe that when I see it. I don't think Arighetti has the natural arm talent that Brown does, which is why his mechanics are lacking and he gets hurt all the time.
Agreed. If Houston is choosing between flawed pitchers to add, I’d much rather they add a guy who consistently throws strikes but is subject to occasional bad batted ball outcomes than a guy who can maintain a high k rate but cannot avoid walks when the game is on the line.
Thanks for the breakdown, now I've got a good idea of what to look for. Man, I would give up a lot to trade for Pepiot and Lowe from the Rays. A lot of what the Stros do this off-season is going to comedown to if they can move Walker and how much money they will have to eat to move him.
I'm hoping Dana uses Arrighetti as a center piece to get a SP1 or a bat. Getting hit by a ball in BP is bad luck more than anything else. I'm wondering if Dana thinks he might be able to move LMJ to clear up some money? Nobody ever talks about this possibility.
If this is a possibility, so is bringing back Bagwell to play 1B, throw left handed, and also make the switch back to 3B… Nobody is going to pay any real money for LMJ… nor will he actually approve of any sort of trade at this point anyways. They’re far more likely to be able to negotiate some sort of buyout or get him to re-negotiate to deferred money (which is still one of Crane’s unwritten “official” rules that people like to quote around here as if its the bible…)
Tell me more about Senga from the Mets is he a legitimate SP2? How's his stuff? He's somebody that I could see Dana trading for.
From what I have read ( haven't seen any videos/games) his stuff is exceptional but he tends to lose his mechanics causing issues. It feels like something the Astros should be well equipped to deal with and fix. One issue is that he has expressed his wish to not get traded and has a partial no trade clause that includes 10 teams. We don't know if the Astros are on the list, but typically the player can change it annually. If he doesn't want to be traded, the 10 teams most likely to want him are the ones on it. A second issue is that he is absolutely worth the 2yrs/$28M left on his deal. He had 1.4 fWAR in only 122 ip last year and Fangraphs projects him for 1.4 in only 104 ip/19 starts this year. Thats 2.2 WAR with 30 starts which is easily worth $20M, maybe $25M in this market, especially with only a two year commitment. I'm sure the Mets won't want to eat any salary and Dana doesn't want to use nearly half of his open salary space on one player. A third issue is health/reliability because he has missed time with shoulder, calf, and hamstring injuries resulting in just 23 starts the past 2 seasons. Injuries are not something the Astros can gamble on. The good thing is that the Mets need a CF, have the hitting at other positions to absorb Jake's bat, have a history of choosing defense first CF (Bader and Siri last year), and have the money and market to prefer veterans over prospects. I think its a great match but we will see. Minor issue- the rotation would be even more right handed.
If Arrighetti is a center piece to get a SP1, Arrighetti must project to be a SP1/SP2, more or less. For reference, the Astros gave up the following in the Gerrit Cole trade: RHP Joe Musgrove - projected (correctly) to be a SP1/SP2 RHP Michael Feliz - 7/8 th inning bullpen arm 3B Colin Moran - projected to be an average MLB 3B OF Jason Martin - lottery ticket
I can see a world where a team looks at Arrighetti's stuff, makeup, and career highlights and projects him to become a TOR starter. I actually think he can be. 1 or 2: 15% 3-5: 40% Leverage RP: 15% Swing/ multi inning rp: 15% AAAA up and down SP: 15%
Musgrove was not that highly thought of when he was traded. He had looked pretty good for Houston in 2017 but prior to that was a 2nd/3rd tier prospect with an injury history. I think Arrighetti is probably on par with that at his current value. Something like Arrighetti, Ullola, Dezenzo, and Sullivan would be the rough equivalent of what Houston gave up for Gerrit Cole. The main issue there is that Pittsburgh was stupid at that time so it’ll be hard to find a poorly run team with a potential ace again.
IIRC you are wrong Musgrove stuff was well regarded, given he had injuries. This was also at a time in Astros history when the hopium was strong; we all wanted Luhnow's early trades to be golden.
My main point was that if the Astros project Arrighetti to be a TOR (> 50%) the Astros don't trade him.
Per MLB Pipeline, he was Houston’s #8 prospect in 2016, #16 in 2015, not in the top 30 in 2014, and #19 in 2013. He never made a top 100 list. His stock was up at the time of the trade for sure, but it’s very reasonable to say Arrighetti has as much value as Musgrove did at that time.
I remember Musgrove’s minor league numbers being very solid- but there were concerns about whether that would translate at the big league level. I think his walk rate/control were very highly regarded but not necessarily his “stuff”- which obviously improved after he added to his repertoire. All of that to say that there are likely some similarities in to how he and Arighetti’s current value may be similar as @Snake Diggit mentioned
If Houston could somehow add Peralta and Abreu that would be badass. Hard for me to see Kwan as a fit unless they think he can play CF but he’d be perfect to balance and deepen the lineup. But I’d be pretty jazzed about this as an opening day roster: SS Pena DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa RF Abreu 2B Altuve 1B Walker CF Cole C Diaz Bench: Matthews, Willems, Allen, Sanchez Rotation: Brown, Peralta, Verlander, Javier, Arrighetti Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Weiss, Sousa, King, Okert, De Los Santos, Pearson
