When you are in the Astro’s position (good team but not among the top tier), I dont think you can get to the top tier by dealing an Arrighetti in a trade for SP2. You need Arrighetti to become an SP2 (or 3). You need to hit on player development with your young people - get P80-90 results, as opposed to just P50 or median outcome. You need to hit on the higher range of potential outcomes for kids to get to a higher tier (while the vets play to their level) as a team. Dealing an Arrighetti almost certainly involves a valuation at p50. Yes, there is going to be differences of opinion on what his p50 is, and maybe we can find someone who has a high P50. But that’s not gonna cut it because we just don’t have enough prospects/young players whose P50 valuations can get us enough back. The alternative is to concede we don’t have enough and sell off, which I don’t support for 2026, unless we are out of it at the deadline.
In a vacuum I agree with you, but not specifically on Arrighetti. What you are describing needs to happen with Forcucci and/or Anderson Brito For 2026 the Astros need to play Tetris to get back into the post season tournament. This team needs to try to compete now because the age and situation their top players are at. Every year missing the post season is wasting Altuve, Yordan, Correa, Brown, Hader, etc That means they NEED a #2 starter because nobody besides Brown is at a stage they can be counted on to pitch well in a playoff game. And if trading Arrighetti is what that takes, then so be it. Let's just hope a couple of the pitching prospects develop so this process doesn't have to be repeated next year.
Probably, but there's injury risk to consider and the option to add an opt out after 2 or 3 years. Let's say 6 years 180 starting now with an opt out after 2027 season. We would get 2 years worst case, he would lock in big payday while leaving open for a bigger one.
I agree that dealing arighetti for sp2 is better than not for the reason you said, we can’t waste this year. But it almost feels like a half measure isn’t worth it. We would then be short a sp3/4 instead of SP3. And that assumes we spend to get the innings eater that seems likely to be a JV quality signing. we need to try like hell to land that SP2 with position player prospects. I’m not sure it’s doable, but that’s gotta be priority 1 and 2.
I get what you are saying. This team has found #3 and #4 starters under rocks for the last 9 years. Finding #1s and #2s has been the problem. I am very confident that if they bring in a legitimate #2 that they can fill the rest of the rotation regardless of who they trade to get that #2.
All I know is, history says some team will get good Framber next year 4 even years = 41-17 record around 2.75 ERA and only 1 season above 3 ERA 4 odd years = 40-35 record around 3.55 ERA and no seasons below 3 ERA. They'll regret the decision in 2027
I wonder how it feels to be a Dodger or Mets fan. This offseason plan could be pretty simple if Crane was just ready to pay the cost. Caratini, Bellinger, Kelly, Giolito, and Williams. They keep all their 2025 draft picks and prospects, and field a completely stacked roster: RF Bellinger DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa SS Pena 2B Altuve 1B Walker C Diaz CF Meyers Bench: Caratini, Sanchez, Matthews, Dezenzo SP: Brown, Kelly, Giolito, Javier, Arrighetti, Pearson RP: Hader, Abreu, Williams, Sousa, King, Okert, McCullers Optioned: Salazar, Smith, Melton, Whitcomb, Cole, Gordon, Blubaugh, Ullola, Murray, VanWey IL: Walter, Blanco, Wesneski Traded/DFA: Trammell, Alexander, De Los Santos, France
Jays land Cease. 7 years, $210 million. Astros dream target the last few years. Need to dream about someone else now. Seven years seems too long? Glad Astros didn't sign him to that.
