Lots here: Nolan, Nolan, Noot, Donovan, Gray, Paredes, Bohm, Stott, Cardinals, Astros, Phillies, Bears oh my No, the Houston Astros are not interested in Nolan Arenado this winter. However, they are interested in Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras. Brendan Donovan and Sonny Gray seem like obvious options. Houston will likely explore the market for one-year candidates first; however, if those exceed where they want to go, the Cardinals expect multiple teams to circle back, including Houston, and be in the mix for Sonny. As far as Willson, he was asked about, and there's been a ton of chatter that Houston is shopping Walker and Paredes. It would seem a few things would need to happen on that front. But they're interested. A Houston source has also told me (the same one that helped me break Nolan's veto last offseason) that the St. Louis Cardinals have brought up Isaac Paredes in at least one of those early conversations. The fit for Paredes might not seem like a fit in STL at first glance, and the Cardinals' overall needs are SP, pen help, and possibly a bat with some pop, OF first then INF. However, if Noot or Gorman are dealt, or both, along with Donovan and Arenado, the Cardinals would likely need someone to play 3B. Also, the Cardinals are concerned about Gorman at 3B long term even if they don't trade him, so it's possible they're looking for a hedging option until JJ is ready. Gorman can play 2B. Lastly, the other thing to consider is if all of this goes to plan for St. Louis, and in a world where they traded all three (Donovan, Noot, and Gorman), the Cardinals would find themselves in need of a LHB and a 3B to compete with TS and JJ in the spring for the open INF positions (rumors the Cards want to see JJ get 3B reps too). Another team that could fit this bill could be the Philadelphia Phillies, who are interested in Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan, could also bolster their rotation with Sonny, and desire the type of catching prospects the Cardinals have. They had also previously shown slight interest in Arenado, though that seems to have dwindled during this winter. The Phillies are likely to move Bohm, Stott, or both if they can upgrade, and if the Cardinals become needy and the Phillies wanted a cheap starter, a cheap bat, a catching prospect, or if they wanted to attach one of them with prospects in a bigger deal, Philly and STL are a duo to watch over the next few weeks.
This team has 4 players who have the value to bring back a truly impact return. Yordan Alvarez - if you trade him you might as well burn it all down. Generational hitters are just that. If you trade him there is zero chance you are better in 2026 (unless he gets hurt again and you can't operate scared). So you waste at least one of Pena, Brown, Correa, and Altuve's remaining years. Cam Smith - By trading him all you are doing is gambling on potential for potential. Hunter Brown - Has 3 years left and become an ace. You can't trade him away now. You gave to get at least 1-2 more years out of him even if you do end up trading him. Jeremy Pena - The organization has nobody to replace him so young controllable SS must be part of the return, but he is exactly the type of player and at the right time if you want to trade for impact players. It is a reasonable bet that a guy like Cam Smith can out produce him this year as well.
I trust Dana Brown and the front office in the draft and in finding pitching on the waiver wire. I also think he can be trusted to evaluate prospects, both in his org and on other teams. I’m not sure Dana Brown’s strength is evaluating the free agent market or acquiring veteran players via trade. But the reality is that no matter how good he is at signing free agents it’s not likely he can build out a roster just with the payroll flexibility they currently have, and it’s impossible to repair the farm system and longer term outlook that way. So it’s not really about trusting Dana Brown, it’s more about recognizing the state of the franchise and the imbalance between the holes they have and the resources they have to fill them. Your idea of “Add a couple of SP's through trades/FA, get Yordan healthy and I'll take my chances” is probably the most likely outcome, but I am very skeptical that it’s the best route to take. It certainly doesn’t address the issue of the long term trajectory of the franchise pointing downward. There are several other factors for why I think trading Pena now could be prudent: I think Pena just had his career best season and will not be as valuable in 2026 or 2027 as he was in 2025. I think the SS market is especially barren so there may be a premium for those players on the trade market. I am high on Correa and think he can still play SS everyday for at least 2 more seasons. I do think an infield of 1B Walker, 2B Altuve, SS Correa, and 3B Paredes (with Matthews and Allen on the bench) can win a World Series, provided the pitching staff and outfield are where they need to be.
Mackenzie Gore for Jacob Melton, Miguel Ullola, Bryce Mayer, and Joseph Sullivan. Ryan Jeffers for Alimber Santa and Jayden Murray Trevor Megill for Bryan King Gore is under control for 2026 and 2027. Gives the team a true #2 and lefty in the rotation. Jeffers is a rental but gives Astros a legitimate MLB catcher to pair with Diaz. The Twins traded away almost their entire bullpen at the deadline. Megill lost his closer job and his salary is rising as he is entering his 2nd arbitration season. King has 4 years of control and Milwaukee always walks the payroll line. This gives the Astros a 2nd RH leverage guy and they still have 3 lefties.
With the right moves adding a couple of SP/RP/LHB OF they can compete. They have the resources in the minors plus a guy like Arrighetti to trade for the pieces the team is missing. I dont want Correa playing SS because it's hard on his body and will cause him to breakdown sooner than later. Plus I dont think he wants to play SS anymore. As far as the minors go I believe Dana can add 5 quality players every yr through the draft and international signings. So unless I think a guys going to be a star I'm ok with trading from the minors every year and every 10-15 years do a full rebuild. This is just my philosophy.
Nowhere near enough for Gore. Nats would not accept that. Swap Mayer and Sullivan for Brito and Matthews and maybe they’d take that.
Thanks for the insight. I'll reconsider. I would still do the deal but I would like to hold on to Matthews because his skills defensively are more rare in the organization. But I do want to be realistic in value, especially considering there will be a bidding war. In the real world Washington could like Mayer and Sullivan over Brito and Matthews but it is true that the two later have much more perceived abd projected value and we will never know their internal values.
I am writing a blog on BREATHINGORANGEFIRE with these 3 trades. In the interest of realism I am going to increase the value sent to Washington. Thank you. And I hope you all check it out.
Brito’s stock might be high enough to make it work without Matthews. If I were a knowledgeable Nats fan I wouldn’t be angry about a package of Melton, Brito, Ullola, and Sullivan. That’s 2 extremely high ceiling pitching prospects and 2 very good outfielder prospects. But it lacks an MLB Top 50 level headliner that the Nats and their fans are probably demanding.
I actually went with Melton - Cole has caught him in many minds but in every scouting report I have seen he still has lots if value. Also, Washington just experienced James Wood have an amazing season despite tons of strikeouts making it reasonable that they would value him. Ullola- He is still the Astros top pitching prospects and has a huge ceiling. He has the potential Washington would want to gamble on to replace a TOR starter. Brito - He has huge helium right now after completely dominating the AFL. Kevin Alvarez - This one hurt for me but its not realistic unless it hurts. He has a lower floor because there is bat only risk but also serious potential that he becomes Yordan 2.0. In the end, prospects are only prospects until they aren't.
My thing about Alvarez is that his glove and legs reduce his chances and he is at least 2 years away. He may become Yordan 2.0 But the most likely result is a no more than average LF/1B/DH The risk makes him an acceptable loss for a guy like Gore, or any TOR starter with cheap control. Prospects are just prospects, especially prior to AA
I'm sure you are right. However, how many more unproven prospects have been traded that did not turn into superstars? Also, I am talking about trading him in return for a proven TOR starter with 2 years of control, not a random MLB average relief pitcher. In star for prospect trades, the team that gets the star almost always wins. If the team getting the prospects did not win once in a while these trades would stop happening. Alvarez could just as easily become J.J. Matijevic, Roberto Petagini, or Cameron Drew, etc. Risk vs Reward.
I think it’s rare for such highly rated prospects to be traded before they get out of the complex league and I would guess the track record for the teams trading away players like that is not great. It’s always about value, and there’s always a point at which it makes sense to trade anybody. But for me to feel good about Houston trading Kevin Alvarez, they’d have to get back what would generally be considered a massive overpay.
Thats a perfectly reasonable view. I have read many posts from you where you listed how many prospects have done certain things at certain levels. I'm sure its pretty easy to figure out just how many prospects were as highly rated as Alvarez at his current age/level and what % ended stars/average/busts. I'm too busy this week to do it but may next week just for my own curiosity. A trade involving him is extremely unlikely to happen anyway. I am certainly rooting for him though. We need to find a SMITH Then 3 years from now we could have an Alvarez, Smith, Alvarez, Smith middle of the lineup.
This is incorrect, the Dodgers got confused and traded the wrong Alvarez. You can look this up. This is a Fact. Astros didn't have the pool money to sign Yordan. Yordan picked the Astros 1st, because of no money. Yordan wanted to join Yuli Gurriel a fellow Cuban. Luckily a New GM Andrew Friedman made a newbie mistake. Josh Fields for Yordan Alvarez that costs the Dodgers more World Series Titles for sure.
